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tennis | Tuesday, July 5, 2022 7:36 AM

Tuesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, July 5th

Tuesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, July 5th
Contributor: Belga News Agency / Alamy Stock Photo


Tuesday, July 5th, 14:30 UK Time

Off to the quarterfinals at The Championships, and the men’s draw has any number of incredible storylines. Novak Djokovic remains in the draw looking to capture his 21st career slam and chase down Rafael Nadal. Cameron Norrie carries the hopes of the British on his shoulder. David Goffin has found his form of old and is back into the second week of a major. Young gun Jannik Sinner took down fellow phenom Carlos Alcaraz for a spot in the final eight. Nick Kyrgios has reached his first quarterfinal at a slam since 2015.

For Tuesday’s selection, we’ll look to get back on track by focusing on two of the names mentioned above, Norrie and Goffin and go toe-to-toe for a spot in the semifinals at The Championships – a would-be career best finish for both men.

I’m a tad surprised to see this line so lopsided for a few reasons. First, the statistical metrics have this matchup as a very close one. The hold plus break percentages over the last 52 weeks are within a percentage point or two of each other and it’s actually Goffin who holds the slightly better elo rating on the surface.

I can understand Norrie being a favourite, considering he’s been the much better player on the whole over the last year or two and Goffin played a marathon on Sunday, but I’m not sure Goffin should be as long as he is in the betting markets.

Matchup wise, Norrie’s strengths being his rally tolerance, movement and ability to move the ball around the court seamlessly from both wings and hit with consistent depth aren’t necessarily things Goffin struggles with. The Belgian plays a consistent style in his own right plays with excellent controlled aggression and won’t be bothered by prolonged rallies (as he demonstrated in his last match with Frances Tiafoe).

Goffin’s backhand is also rock-solid, so Norrie targeting that wing with his lefty forehand in cross-court rallies won’t produce as many unforced errors as it normally would.

With Goffin having dispatched his first two opponents with ease (as one would expect) and then coming through his last two matches against quality grass courters in much tougher fashion, I think he’s battle-tested and ready to take on an opponent who, arguably, isn’t as tough for someone who plays with his style as either of the last two rounds.

I am a tad concerned with his nearly five-hour match against Tiafoe, however, so instead of going for the games handicap, I’m going to back Goffin – who matches up well and plays a bit better of a game on grass courts than Norrie – to take the opening set.

  • Selection: Goffin to win set 1
  • Odds: 2.45 (Unibet)
  • Stakes: 2/10

More tips for Norrie vs Goffin 

Odds are valid as of 01:30 am on 4th July 2022. Odds may now differ. 

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