tennis | Monday, May 23, 2022 7:31 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, May 24, 2022 12:39 PM)

Tuesday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP French Open, May 24th

Jon Reid

ATP French Open Best Bet: Tseng vs Sousa

Tuesday, May 24th, 10:00 UK Time

One last day of first-round action remains on Tuesday, as the final 40 matchups play out from Roland Garros in Paris.

Today’s selection brings us a real contrast in styles, as the up-and-coming Chun Tsin Tseng takes on seasoned veteran Joao Sousa. When prices for this match were initially released, the Taiwanese standout was heavily favoured, coming in at 1.59 odds. Sousa’s deep run in Geneva, however, has brought those odds all the way into the 1.90 range. That is the kind of overreaction that needs to be taken advantage of.

While that run of form from Sousa was certainly impressive, the circumstances and opposition are very different this time around. Keep in mind, Sousa was just 3-6 on the clay this year heading into last week in Geneva, where he upset four players – all in straight sets – before falling only in a third set tiebreak to Casper Ruud as a massive underdog.

The key difference between the French Open (and the rest of the clay season) and Geneva, is that the Swiss tournament plays a tad quicker, as it is at about 400 metres of altitude. That helps Sousa considerably, who is rock solid from the baseline and benefits from cheap points behind his first serve.

For instance, his first serve points won percentage in Geneva was higher in all five matches than his clay season’s average. The same holds true for his second serve points won percentage. That feat will be tough to replicate in much slower conditions in Paris.

Further, his opponent is an excellent returner, used to physically grinding out matches from the baseline. He also happens to be much younger and came through qualifying here (in dominating fashion, no less), so has three matches under his belt already. Tseng’s returning abilities have been well-known since he burst onto the junior scene in 2018, winning two junior grand slams and reaching the final in a third. It’s the addition of pace into his groundstrokes and the ability to dictate points that has taken his game to the next level.

The form, talent, and matchup advantage for Tseng over Sousa is there. Now that the market has overreacted to one good week from the Portuguese – in an event that isn’t a great comparable for the French Open – there is considerable value in backing Tseng to win.