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tennis | Tuesday, March 22, 2022 12:12 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, March 22, 2022 11:45 PM)

Today's Miami Open Best Bet: March 22nd

Today's Miami Open Best Bet: March 22nd
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WTA Miami Open: Anisimova vs Rogers Best Bet

Tuesday, March 22nd, 18:00 (UK Time)

After Iga Swiatek lifted her second Masters 1000 title of the season on Sunday evening, the WTA tour swiftly moves on to the final leg of the ‘Sunshine Double’ in Miami. The Women’s main draw gets underway on Tuesday afternoon, and I’ve got a best bet from probably the standout tie of the first round.

Amanda Anisimova was painfully close to recording an excellent victory over Leylah Fernandez last week in Indian Wells. The young American threw away four match points, three of which were on serve, and abruptly retired (due to illness) after losing the second set in a tie-break. Despite the defeat, Anisimova was the better player throughout the match. She served and returned equally as impressively, winning 61% of the points behind her serve and 50% of the points against the serve of Fernandez.

The performance highlighted the level Anisimova is capable of, but also reminded us of the mental fragility that can often negatively affect her game. Someone who knows about this all too well is Shelby Rogers, who recovered from 1-6, 1-4 down to beat Anisimova in the pair’s only previous meeting last year.

Rogers approaches Miami boosted by her performances in Indian Wells. She was able to end a run of four straight defeats and picked up an eye-catching victory over in-form Jelena Ostapenko.

Incidentally, Rogers was knocked out of the tournament by the same player as Anisimova. In that defeat against Fernandez, Rogers displayed how dependent she is on her first serve – a weapon which she won 82% of points behind – by winning just 35% of points behind her second serve. In addition, she won just 27% of points when returning, which is a clear weakness in her game and something Anisimova can exploit. 

Although Anisimova comes into this match with more question marks over her mentality, I believe she has enough quality to win this match comfortably. Her strength on return can counteract Rogers’ powerful first serve, whilst her own serving ability should be too strong for her opponent. Therefore, I recommend backing Anisimova to win with a -3.5 game handicap.

  • Selection: Anisimova -3.5 games handicap
  • Best Odds: 1.92 (MarathonBet)
  • Stakes: 7/10

Odds as at 3am March 22nd 2022. Odds may now differ

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