tennis | Monday, June 13, 2022 1:28 PM

Tuesday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Birmingham, June 14th

Jon Reid

WTA Birmingham Best Bet: Rogers vs Cirstea

Tuesday, June 14th, TBD UK Time

A solid opportunity here to back an underdog in a match that features two women with excellent power that should suit the grass well. Not just that, but the underdog is also more athletic and a slightly better returner for my money as well.

The first-round encounter between Shelby Rogers and Sorana Cirstea should make for some fun viewing. If you can get past the likely elevated number of unforced errors from both, the ball striking will make the viewing experience well worth it.

With both women equipped with big, powerful serves and the ability to absolutely crush the ball from the forehand wing, this match could ultimately come down to who is capable of applying more pressure on return and then converting on the chances they create.

As I alluded to earlier, when you look at the games and styles of each woman, it feels like for a somewhat even matchup, that this price is off.

With both possessing strong first serves (both have won about 65% of points behind that serve in the last year on grass), and forehands that can dictate, it comes down to the backhand wing and consistency.

For my money, Cirstea does a bit more off her backhand wing and is a touch more capable going down the line from that side – which can be an effective weapon on the slick surface. Rogers might have the edge in the consistency department, but that can fluctuate set to set with her (her last match against Sabalenka illustrated that decently well).

When it comes to court coverage, the Romanian has the clear advantage there, and if this goes three sets, the ability to play a prolonged match also favours her. It’s worth nothing that after 11 games against a hitter in her last match, Rogers appeared to tire significantly and the errors from her *6-5 service game through the end of the match came fast and furious.

With the statistical edge and records since the start of last season (as well as the head-to-head record) favouring Rogers here, it’s understandable that the market has her listed as the favourite. To have the price this cheap on Cirstea to win, however, is a little much.