tennis | Wednesday, September 7, 2022 7:50 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: US Open Men, Frances Tiafoe vs Andrey Rublev

Jon Reid

Frances Tiafoe vs. Andrey Rublev Best Bet: Wednesday, September 7th

The final two spots in the semifinals of the U.S. Open are up for grabs, and Frances Tiafoe is the final hope for the American crowd in the men’s draw, as he tries to continue his breakout run in New York City and reach new heights at the game’s top level.

While he reached this stage in Australia a few years back, this run on home soil – with over 20,000 people in attendance roaring after each big point he wins – is surely a more important one for the 24-year-old.

Let’s take a look at the match between him and Andrey Rublev and find where the value lies in this quarterfinal matchup.

In this article:

Frances Tiafoe vs Andrey Rublev Preview
Frances Tiafoe vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet

Frances Tiafoe vs Andrey Rublev Preview

September 7th, 18:30 UK Time

When it comes to the matchup on hard courts, you’ve got a few ways to look at this one.

In terms of the biggest weapon on the court, it is undoubtedly Rublev’s forehand. The Russian generates more pace than the vast majority of men on tour off that wing, but he’s not the greatest tactician and sometimes is prone to struggling to control his power from the baseline.

Enter Tiafoe, who’s game, especially on slower surfaces can be underpowered at times, but who’s athletic ability, movement and shotmaking have never been in question. The American has seen the vast majority of his success in quicker conditions for a reason (both grand slam quarterfinals have now come on quicker courts and he’s been strong on grass courts, as well). His game gets a natural boost in terms of pace on his serve and groundstrokes on quick courts, while his incredible court coverage and shotmaking still give him the ability to pressure his opposition’s service games.

He’s also much better in the point construction department than Rublev. While on the defensive his focus is primarily to continue getting balls back, when he is able to dictate, he moves the ball around the court, opening up space for himself to hit through, really well.

Frances Tiafoe vs Andrey Rublev Best Bet

With Tiafoe possessing a strong game, yet Rublev holding the biggest weapon on court, many will be tempted to take the over in this matchup.

The books, however, are in clear agreement and have set the total at 40.5 games, which is a tall ask in a matchup that doesn’t feature the biggest of servers.

For me, the value actually lies in betting on Tiafoe. With his game playing up on the courts and him having the incredible court coverage skills to help neutralise the Rublev forehand, I’m keen on how he matches up in this one.

Factor in the American crowd at his back (something I don’t generally look at, but with emotional players that love to get the crowd involved like Tiafoe, it’s certainly a relevant factor) and I believe he deserves to be a slight favourite, rather than a 50-50 prospect.