tennis | Wednesday, August 17, 2022 7:45 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Cincinnati, Karolina Pliskova vs Elise Mertens

Jon Reid

Karolina Pliskova vs Elise Mertens Best Bet: Wednesday, August 17th

Tough loss on a larger play with Beatriz Haddad Maia, as Jelena Ostapenko played one of the cleanest matches we’ve seen from her in quite some time.

Onto Wednesday’s action, and the slate is loaded as the Western & Southern Open looks to get in the rest of the second round. For our match analysis, we’ll delve into the matchup between Karolina Pliskova and Elise Mertens.

In this article:

Karolina Pliskova vs Elise Mertens Preview
Karolina Pliskova vs Elise Mertens Best Bet

Karolina Pliskova vs Elise Mertens Preview

August 17th, 14:00 UK Time

What a time for Pliskova to re-find her form. After a run of questionable form, the Czech was in dire need of a result in Toronto, as she was defending finalist points from 2021 in Montreal. A semifinal run for her has to be considered a success, considering she’d only managed to reach that stage of an event once this season (the week prior to the French Open against a weaker field).

With her serve clicking, Pliskova will be a tough out on the quicker courts of Cincinnati. With a strong win over Venus Williams in the opening round, she’s got a great chance to reach the final 16 of back-to-back WTA 1000 events as she squares off with Mertens, who’s been struggling with her form.

The Belgian hasn’t managed to win multiple matches at a tournament outside of the grand slam level since Strasbourg – the week prior to the French Open. On hard courts this summer, she’s beaten clay courter Anna Bondar and Anhelina Kalinina (an admittedly impressive win) in the opening round. Losses to Magda Linette, Camila Giorgi and Ludmilla Samsonova, however, do not inspire much confidence. Especially considering the two players that are most comparable to Pliskova in that group (Giorgi and Samsonova) both eliminated her in straight sets.

With a double fault rate well over her career average on hard courts in the last 52 weeks, as well as lower hold and break rates, Mertens’ game has taken a step back in 2022. With Pliskova having found her groove in the last week on serve (she’s held serve at a nearly 81% clip since the start of Toronto), if Mertens falters in the least in her own service games, she may find it really difficult to bring herself level.

Karolina Pliskova vs Elise Mertens Best Bet

At this point, it’s fairly clear that Mertens is still being priced as a former top-15 talent, more than the player she actually is now. I think continuing to oppose her with quality players is a profitable approach in the long run.

I’m more than happy to concede a three-game head start to back Pliskova in this matchup.