tennis | Wednesday, February 15, 2023 9:53 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, February 15, 2023 10:00 AM)

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Doha, Caroline Garcia vs Karolina Muchova

Jon Reid

Caroline Garcia vs Karolina Muchova Best Bet: Wednesday, February 15th

That is a win I will take from Daria Kasatkina. It was a struggle for the first set and a half or so, as Rebecca Marino found her fair share of winners. Kasatkina didn’t help in that regard, hitting with next to no depth and keeping the ball far too centrally and not exposing Marino’s primary weakness in her movement.

Onto Wednesday, where we’ll preview the match between Caroline Garcia and Karolina Muchova in Doha.

In this article:

Caroline Garcia vs Karolina Muchova Preview
Caroline Garcia vs Karolina Muchova Best Bet

Caroline Garcia vs Karolina Muchova Preview

February 15th, 17:00 (UK Time)

It’s an absolutely stacked day of tennis in the Qatari capital, and one of the final matches of the day is no exception, with Garcia taking on a former top-20 player in Muchova, who possesses a pretty dynamic game.

As strong as Garcia has been since the grass-court portion of the 2022 season, her incredibly aggressive style on return has meant she’s struggled to find blowout wins. With her serve being so strong, however, she hasn’t really needed more than a break or two in a set to wrap it up, and it feels like she’s content with where her game is now and is fine not making any more adjustments for the moment.

That should bode well for Muchova, who has a decent – albeit not overpowering – serve, and a good baseline game to back it up.

In fact, her hold rate of 84% this year puts her just over a percentage point behind Garcia, who is widely considered one of the sport’s better servers.

Solidity from the baseline, the ability to dictate in her own right and the ability to mix in dropshots and slices all lead me to believe that her game on its own should be able to keep Garcia within shouting distance.

Factor in the one hole in Garcia’s game and I think we have a strong chance of seeing a close match play out to end the festivities in Doha on Wednesday.

Caroline Garcia vs Karolina Muchova Best Bet

I’m not the biggest trend bettor, but I do believe that when context is applied to a certain trend and there’s a reason it has become a pattern, that there may be value in looking to back it.

In this case, it’s pretty clear that Garcia’s strong serve, coupled with an aggressive return position on the court keeps players within striking distance of beating her – even if they haven’t beaten her at a high rate yet in 2023.

In fact, the only players she’s really blown away in straight sets have been Camila Osorio (a player still getting used to life on quicker courts), Katherine Sebov (an ITF player that just recently entered the world’s top-200) and Nadia Podoroska (a clay courter through and through). Otherwise, her wins have been close two-set affairs or three-set matches.

I’m happy to back this over at just 21.5 games, considering the majority of Garcia matches this season have gone over that number for the reasons listed above. Factor in Muchova’s success behind her own serve this season and I think this is at least a full game too low.

Selection: Over 21.5 Games
Best Odds: 1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am on February 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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