tennis | Wednesday, September 14, 2022 9:09 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, September 14, 2022 9:10 AM)

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Portoroz, Katerina Siniakova vs Martina Trevisan

Jon Reid

Katerina Siniakova vs. Martina Trevisan Best Bet: Wednesday, September 14th

Another nice day, with our best bets in Bucharest both landing. Not even I saw Simona Waltert winning with relative ease. She never trailed by a break at any point and was on the front foot from beginning to end.

Onto Wednesday, and we’ll head back to one of the 250 events on the hard courts of Portoroz, Slovenia. It’s the final first-round encounter at that event between Katerina Siniakova and Martina Trevisan that we’ll delve into for Wednesday’s best bet from the women’s tour.

In this article:

Katerina Siniakova vs Martina Trevisan Preview
Katerina Siniakova vs Martina Trevisan Best Bet

Katerina Siniakova vs Martina Trevisan Preview

September 14, 10:00 UK Time

An interesting choice from the bookmakers and the market in this matchup to have Siniakova priced up in the 1.60 range odds-wise. Let me start out by saying, I understand full well that this is almost entirely based on the fact that Siniakova is coming off yet another grand slam title in doubles with compatriot Barbora Krejcikova and was in New York City right up until a few days ago.

That said, this still appears to be too much of an overreaction, and it’s one I’ll look to capitalise on.

For starters, Siniakova holds a lead of just over 140 points in terms of her hard-court elo rating – a measurement that looks to determine a player’s level on a surface given their results and the level of the players they’ve come up against. That alone implies this price is off by several cents on the dollar.

Statistically, the Czech has a better hold plus break percentage on hard courts over the last year – despite stiffer competition – as well.

Matchup wise, we have an all-court player in Siniakova taking on a clay-court-centric player in Trevisan. Not only that, but Siniakova is able to hit much bigger than her counterpart as well. That also means more unforced errors, which would be a problem against anyone else, but with Trevisan also being extremely prone to coughing up free points, one of Siniakova’s major weaknesses is essentially offset by the same weakness on the other side of the net.

Finally, over the course of the summer hard court swing, we saw Siniakova take down a high-level ITF event in Poland and then lose to the likes of Shuai Zhang (who was very strong on quicker courts all summer), Andrea Petkovic (who was motivated by being in one of her final tournaments) and Alize Cornet (who needed three sets and is a top-35 player in the world).

The Italian, on the other hand, has losses against a player who hasn’t played in years in Evgeniya Rodina, another to Anna Kalinskaya – who struggled most of the summer with an injury – and could only beat Mayar Sherif, a clay-court specialist.

Katerina Siniakova vs Martina Trevisan Best Bet

With all signs, from form to surface and statistically to stylistically, pointing to the Czech being the play in this spot, I’m more than willing to take my chances that a few days of rest is enough for Siniakova to come through this one.