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tennis | Wednesday, June 22, 2022 7:02 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, June 22, 2022 7:18 AM)

Wednesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Mallorca, June 22nd

Wednesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Mallorca, June 22nd
Contributor: dpa picture alliance / Alamy Stock Photo


Wednesday, June 22nd, 13:30 UK Time

After playing just a singular match on grass in 2021, Stefanos Tsitsipas is into his third tuneup event leading into Wimbledon of the season in Mallorca.

Having always struggled to return on the quick, slick surface, Tsitsipas’ lack of success in that regard has been even more pronounced this season. With a career rate of breaking serve at under 15%, it wasn’t great to begin with. Through four matches in 2022? That number sits at a paltry 10%.

While his first serve is effective across all surfaces, Tsitsipas’ second serve is vulnerable, with both Nick Kyrgios and Andy Murray managing to win over half the points that came on the Greek’s second serve.

That can be problematic, as one game a set with his first serve abandoning him can cost him a match with the difficulties he has on return.

Yet – thanks to his name, ranking and success on other surfaces – Tsitsipas continues to be priced up as the heavy favourite in the betting markets. This, despite being relatively pedestrian on the surface.

I always believe in opposing him where possible. The key is to ensure his opponent is competent on the grass in his own right.

With Ilya Ivashka having a solid grass season, having only lost to Daniil Medvedev to this point, he certainly fits the bill.

The Belarussian is holding serve at a rate approaching 90%, wins over 75% of his first serve points and 50% behind his second serve and breaks serve over 20% of the time over the last 52 weeks on grass.

He’s got an excellent serve and can generate power off both wings from the baseline.

With no Wimbledon next week due to the tournament’s policy on Russian and Belarussian players, there is much less doubt about his motivation this week, seeing as it’ll be his last chance to amass ranking points and prize money for grass season.

Ivashka is a solid candidate to oppose the world No. 6 in Mallorca. Taking the games on the handicap is the way to go. Sprinkling a bit more on him to win the match outright also seems like a smart move.

  • Selection: Ivashka +2.5 games
  • Odds: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 2/10


Odds are valid as of 9:00 am on 22nd June 2022. Odds may now differ. 

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