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tennis | Wednesday, July 6, 2022 7:27 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, July 6, 2022 8:23 AM)

Wednesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, July 6th

Wednesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, July 6th
Contributor: PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo


Wednesday, July 6th, 15:00 UK Time

The blockbuster match of the day, set to wrap up action on Centre Court, features the man still working towards a potential calendar grand slam in Rafael Nadal and the man who beat him in the Indian Wells final, Taylor Fritz.

That loss at Indian Wells is just one of three that Nadal has been handed this season – and it’s the only match he’s lost in 2022 in straight sets. With his foot issues now seemingly behind him (he mentioned at the start of Wimbledon that his foot feels much better than it did during the entirety of the clay-court season), we’ll see if he can turn the tables on the American this time around.

While many may look to the courts at the All England Club as being quicker than Indian Wells’ mud-slow hard courts playing to Fritz’s favour, it’s worth noting that Nadal has embraced the court speed in London the past few years, notching a service hold rate of over 90% on grass in each of the last three grass-court seasons he played prior to this year, and even in 2022 he’s held serve 86.5% of the time (with his first match on grass in a few years being his worst).

With Nadal’s serve getting tougher and tougher to break as the tournament has worn on, I’m not certain that Fritz’s success against Nadal on home soil in California in March is going to translate to this matchup.

As for the American, after a tumultuous clay season and two consecutive losses to open play on the grass, Fritz has turned it around, winning the lead-in tournament in Eastbourne and cruising to the quarterfinals without dropping a set at Wimbledon. The problem I have in this spot is that Fritz hasn’t played anyone remotely close to Nadal’s level. A clay courter with a weak one-handed backhand in Lorenzo Musetti, a British wild card in Alastair Gray, Slovakian grinder Alex Molcan and in-form Australian – yet still primarily Challenger Tour player – Jason Kubler.

The potential lack of being tested by a truly tour-level opponent is a concern for me regarding the 24-year-old in this spot.

Nadal’s experience and superior movement and return abilities, combined with a service game that plays up on the grass is also a major sticking point in this one.

Having expected to see the handicap at an expensive five games or around a price slightly above evens for 5.5 games, getting this at just four games is a position I’m willing to stake out in this match.

  • Selection: Nadal -4 games
  • Odds: 1.88 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 2/10

More tips for NADAL vs FRITZ

Odds are valid as of 09:30 am on 4th July 2022. Odds may now differ. 

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