tennis | Tuesday, June 28, 2022 4:32 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, June 29, 2022 2:20 PM)

Wednesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, June 29th

Jon Reid

ATP Wimbledon BEST BET: DAVIDOVICH FOKINA VS VESELY

Wednesday June 29th, TBD

Some bettors are certain to be wary of players off of massive upset wins, taking precautions over the potential “letdown” spots, but in the second-round tilt between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Jiri Vesely, the betting markets have presented us with a lovely chance to re-back the young Spaniard in this spot.

Outside of the serve and forehand combination, the big Czech doesn’t do anything on the court that should keep him close to the athletic shot maker from Malaga.

In terms of how these two match up stylistically, it’s almost night and day. With Vesely a poor mover and not in the best physical shape, he’s heavily reliant on those first serve bombs he can deliver from the service line.

Davidovich Fokina, on the other hand, is far more adept on return but can get a little too flashy at times (he nearly lost his first-round match with Hubert Hurkacz after trying to be fancy on the first of three match points in the third set). His serve isn’t as strong as many on tour, but with Vesely being such a poor returner, he’ll find his fair share of service holds anyway.

In any prolonged rally, the edge most definitely lies with the younger of the two on the court. The movement, ability to change the direction of the ball and hit any shot whether stationary on the baseline or on the run, should see him win the vast majority of longer points.

The format here also benefits Davidovich Fokina. Though he played a long match in the first round (one he probably should have finished sooner), he’s far fitter than his opposition in this one and the longer the match goes (much like individual points), the more of an advantage he’ll have.

Finally, in terms of the narrative-based aspects to this match, I like the fact that he played a much better version of Vesely last round in Hurkacz (huge server, but Hurkacz with far more rally tolerance and return ability) and was still able to work his way into plenty of games on return.

As for the worry about a letdown spot, we’ve already seen the youngster upset Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo and end up building on that momentum, rather than being complacent with the win, as Davidovich Fokina ended up in the final that week.