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tennis | Wednesday, March 30, 2022 6:16 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, March 30, 2022 4:51 PM)

Wednesday's Miami Open Best Bet: March 30th

Wednesday's Miami Open Best Bet: March 30th
Contributor: Yaroslav Sabitov/YES Market Media / Alamy Stock Photo

WTA Miami Open: Kvitova vs Swiatek Best Bet

Thursday, March 31st, 00:00 (UK Time)

The Miami Open has reached the quarter-final stage in both the ATP and WTA events. I’m switching my attention to the WTA draw, and my best bet features one of the most in-form players in the Women’s game.

Iga Swiatek is currently on an incredible 14-match winning streak, with her overall win-loss ratio for 2022 standing at 23-3. The young Pole is showing no signs of relenting as she bids to win her third successive WTA 1000 title. So far in Miami, Swiatek is yet to drop a set and has lost just nine games en route to the quarter-finals.

Ominously for her next opponent, Petra Kvitova, Swiatek’s serving performance is steadily improving round by round. In her R2 match against Viktorija Golubic, the 20-year-old won 62% of her service points, which increased to 66% in R3 and 72% in R4. The R4 matchup with Coco Gauff also saw Swiatek produce her best first serve figures, where she won 79% of the points behind this weapon.

A further concern for Kvitova will be that Swiatek has won 58% of points on return at this tournament and is statistically the best returner on the Women’s tour in 2022.

Although 28th seed Kvitova has achieved three straight victories for the first time this year, she has been far from convincing on serve. The 32-year-old Czech has been broken 11 times this week, and in her fourth-round victory over Veronika Kudermetova, she won just 51% of points behind her serve.

Fortunately for Kvitova, her return stats in Miami have been solid. Across her three matches, she has won 51% of points on return, which is considerably better than her year-to-date average of 40.4%. Whether she can maintain this level against a player at the top of her game remains to be seen.

Given Kvitova’s struggles on serve, I’m expecting another dominant performance from Swiatek on Wednesday night. Therefore, I’m backing the Pole to emerge victorious with a -5.5 handicap.

  • Selection: Swiatek -5.5 games Handicap
  • Best Odds: 2.19 (Pinnacle Sports)
  • Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 8 am March 30th, 2022. Odds may differ now.

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