tennis | Tuesday, May 31, 2022 2:30 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, June 1, 2022 2:51 PM)

Wednesday's Tennis Best Bet: French Open, June 1st

Jon Reid

WTA French Open Best Bet: Swiatek vs Pegula

Wednesday, June 1st, 12:30 UK Time

The incredible story that is Iga Swiatek’s 2022 season continues on Wednesday, as the budding superstar of the women’s game seeks to take another step forward on her quest to win her sixth consecutive tournament.

She matches up with American Jessica Pegula in quarterfinal action from Roland Garros on Wednesday, just six sets from her second Roland Garros crown.

After a slight scare in the previous round, where the young Qinwen Zheng took the opening set off of Swiatek, the Polish No. 1 raced back to win the match, dropping just two games in the final two sets.

Pegula has had an admirable tournament in her own right, but in her last three matches against unheralded clay-court opposition, she’s had her struggles in each. Against Anhelina Kalinina, Pegula nearly blew a 6-1, 5-1 lead. Against Tamara Zidansek, she needed a second set tiebreak in a match she opened up a 6-1, 3-0 lead in. Finally, against Irina Begu, she had to come from a set down to win the match.

Ultimately, Pegula has been fortunate that a trio of clay courters had major blips in their games in each of the last three matches.

Pegula also doesn’t profile as the type of player to give Swiatek the most trouble. Swiatek’s losses and even her two most recent lost sets have come against really big-hitting opposition. Pegula has the ability to strike the ball decently, but not nearly hard enough to hit through both the slow red clay in Paris and Swiatek’s incredible defence. The Pole also has more weapons in her serve and forehand than Pegula’s previous opposition.

With little in the way to seriously trouble Swiatek from the baseline and not having the biggest weapons on the court, it’s tough to see a path for Pegula to trouble Swiatek much more than anyone has managed to in the last few months.

The games handicap in this match does present a slightly better opportunity than the game total in my estimation, though.

It’s unlikely the world No. 1 drops a set in the match, but should that happen, we’ve seen her come back to cover even the larger spreads in the past.

In her first two rounds at Indian Wells, as well as against Zheng last round, Swiatek lost the opening set, only to drop no more than three games the rest of the way. It takes an incredible amount of energy to hit through her for a set, as well as deal with the massive spin she plays her forehand with, that most players’ energy reserves are tapped by the time the second set rolls around.

This allows more margin for error than the under games market, without having to win by too much more should it be over in straight sets.