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tennis | Tuesday, June 14, 2022 9:00 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, June 15, 2022 8:13 AM)

Wednesday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Berlin, June 15th

Wednesday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Berlin, June 15th
Contributor: Action Plus Sports Images / Alamy Stock Photo

WTA Berlin Best Bet: Alexandrova vs Kasatkina

Wednesday, June 15th, 11:30 UK Time

Lovely stuff from Cirstea who puts aside blowing the second set break lead and closes in decisive fashion in the third set to land a nice underdog odds winner.

Onto Tuesday on the WTA Tour, and for Tuesday’s selection, it’s the 500-level in Berlin featuring a match between two Russians in Daria Kasatkina and Ekaterina Alexandrova that will be the focus.

A match of conflicting styles, it’s going to take one heck of an effort from the younger of the two in Kasatkina to keep herself in this one.

With the grass rewarding the bigger ball-striking of Alexandrova more than the defensive nature of Kasatkina, the scales are tilted heavily in her favour.

It’s not just the stylistic edge of Alexandrova either. Statistically – despite Kasatkina posting some strong numbers herself – Alexandrova is well ahead of her compatriot. Over the last 52 weeks on grass, Alexandrova has a higher ace by (by 9%), hold plus break percentage (by 9.5%), first-serve points won rate (by 12.4%) and second serve points won rate (by 7.6%).

All that, despite the fact that she’s played a much better quality of opponent dating back to the grass season of 2021.

Then there’s the form entering this match. Since late March, Alexandrova has really found another gear. After bouts with inconsistency early on in the season and a gameplan of just hitting as hard as she could and hoping the ball stayed in, Alexandrova has added some rally tolerance, shot selection and the ability to hit with more margin for error.

The result was a success on clay at a rate no one expected and now a 6-0 start to the grass season that has seen her drop a total of one set – the very first she played on the surface in ‘s-Hertogenbosch last week.

If there was something in the stylistic matchup that Kasatkina did to even out the statistical and surface edges that Alexandrova has in this matchup, this selection may not be as enticing. With rallies shortened due to court speed and Alexandrova’s added rally tolerance, that just isn’t the case.

  • Selection: Alexandrova -3 games
  • Odds: 1.95 (Marathon Bet)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Get more tips for Alexandrova vs Kasatkina

Odds are valid as of 23:00 pm on 14th June 2022. Odds may now differ. 

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