Wednesday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Lausanne, July 13th
WTA Lausanne BEST BET: MARIA vs JEANJEAN
Wednesday, July 13th, Time TBD
For Wednesday’s selection from the two women’s clay events happening this week, it’s off to the west of Switzerland for a match between Tatjana Maria and Leolia Jeanjean.
Fresh off a strong grass-court season, and her best ever run at one of the year’s four grand slam events, Maria gets back to the clay, where she’ll take on the French Open’s wild card revelation in Jeanjean.
Priced up as a strong favourite in this position, Maria is getting credit for her success in recent weeks and likely some recognition for her title in Bogota earlier in the season. For me, the price on the underdog here is a bit too long.
For starters, Maria’s recent success was on grass – a surface that suits her strengths really well and masks her most glaring weakness.
Secondly, while Lausanne is played at some altitude (just under 600 metres), it’s by no means at the same elevation of the Colombian capital (over 2,600 metres) that saw her strong first serve become a major weapon.
For me, the stylistic matchup also benefits Jeanjean for a few reasons. Maria’s main strengths are her first serve and ability to slice her backhand effectively. While the serve may still be effective thanks to the elevation, the slice doesn’t play nearly as well on clay, where the higher-bouncing surface means even effective slices sit up a bit more than on grass. Jeanjean also plays her groundstrokes with plenty of topspin when pulled into the court. That’s exactly what you’re looking for against someone who slices effectively. Further, the Frenchwoman can find incredible angles and pull her opponents into the outer thirds of the court, which can help flip the script in rallies and put her opponent on the back foot.
Finally, the German’s weakness being her movement on clay is a worry, because being able to move around and construct points on the red dirt is important, as shorter points and quick winners are tougher to find on the slower surface.
In this matchup, that weakness could prove even more costly, thanks to Jeanjean’s ability to grind and play a defensive style from the baseline, as well as her ability to manipulate the ball from one side of the court to the other. If the German is a step slow, she’s going to leave shorter and shorter balls for Jeanjean to finish, and more space for the 26-year-old to hit into.
At first glance, one can understand why the market would prefer the 34-year-old veteran in this one. Digging in a bit deeper to the matchup and surface preferences has me thinking the match is much closer than the current odds would suggest.
- Selection: Jeanjean to win
- Odds: 2.62 (Marathon Bet)
- Stakes: 2/10
More tips for MARIA vs JEANJEAN
Odds are valid as of 08:30 pm on 12th July 2022. Odds may now differ.
