Tuesday Bonus Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Buenos Aires, Caroline Dolehide vs Leolia Jeanjean
Caroline Dolehide vs Leolia Jeanjean Best Bet: Tuesday, November 15th
We’re back to previewing WTA tennis for Tuesday, as the 125K series of events rolls on with the main draw getting underway in the Argentinian capital of Buenos Aires.
For Tuesday’s preview, we’ll look at the match between Caroline Dolehide and Leolia Jeanjean, as they battle it out on the slow red clay.
In this article:
Caroline Dolehide vs Leolia Jeanjean Preview
November 15th, 16:30 UK Time
Coming off a strong week in Colina, Dolehide will be looking to continue building on her best week on red dirt in several years.
Prior to last week in Colina, the 24-year-old had won just four of 11 matches on the dirt in 2022 and posted a record of just 2-10 on clay across the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
With a game that works better on surfaces that reward power and mask her average movement and athletic abilities, it’s no surprise she’s struggled in the past to find a groove on a more tactical surface with points that are extended far more often.
Her French opponent should be well-suited to capitalise on those struggles, considering she’s played – and won – far more often on red clay this year, plays a strong defensive game from the baseline, constructs points well and is adept at using topspin effectively to buy herself time to recover to the centre of the baseline between shots.
She’s struggled a bit as of late, but back on clay and in a 125K event where the field isn’t so daunting, she has a great chance to replicate some of the success she had earlier in the season.
Already in 2022, Jeanjean has managed to find wins over the likes of Karolina Pliskova and Nuria Parrizas Diaz at her home grand slam event (as an underdog priced over 4.00 each time), as well as talented youngsters like Ylena In-Albon and Elsa Jacquemot. A fifth win against Julia Grabher (who has 44 wins on clay this year alone) is nothing to shrug at either.
With Dolehide potentially fatigued after a strong run in Chile last week, the grinding, defensive style of Jeanjean could very well find her through to the second round.
Caroline Dolehide vs Leolia Jeanjean Best Bet
What opened initially as a dead-even match at Pinnacle, has now been bet into a situation where there is a clear favourite and underdog, with the American taking plenty of money thanks to her recent success.
The thing is, while her form was strong in Colina, there are a few things that tell me this move in the market’s pricing isn’t the right one.
First, with a long run of form comes at least a bit of fatigue – especially for someone whose game is predicated primarily on power, rather than movement and point construction.
Secondly, it seems money is coming in on the back of the strong week in Colina, and considering Dolehide’s past record on the surface (including the lack of success on quicker green clay in the United States, which would play to her strengths more than these conditions), I’m inclined to believe there’s an overreaction here due to recency bias. I am a strong proponent of opposing those kinds of reactions.
Finally, something else worth considering is the elevation at which Colina was played. Where Buenos Aires is played at sea level, last week’s event was played at just over 600 metres of altitude. That helps someone like Dolehide, whose power becomes more effective and who can keep points shorter behind her serve.
From past success to a potential fatigue fade, to an overreaction to recent success at an event played in different conditions, this is the ideal spot to oppose Dolehide backing a player who is competent on clay and available at underdog pricing.
- Selection: Jeanjean to win
- Best Odds: 2.17 (Marathonbet)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as at 9:30 am on November 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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