tennis | Monday, October 24, 2022 8:01 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Tampico, Camila Osorio vs Nao Hibino

Jon Reid

Camila Osorio vs Nao Hibino Best Bet: Monday, October 24th

Nothing doing on Friday from the women’s plays, as nothing ended up being tipped, so we move into the new week, where we have just one event at the WTA level – a 125K being played in Tampico, Mexico.

For our first selection of the week, we’ll preview the match featuring Camila Osorio and Nao Hibino.

In this article:

Camila Osorio vs Nao Hibino Preview
Camila Osorio vs Nao Hibino Best Bet

Camila Osorio vs Nao Hibino Preview

October 25th, 1:30 UK Time

Despite being “just’ a 125K level event for the WTA Tour, the latter stages could end up featuring some really exciting matchups.

With many players already in Mexico, thanks to the WTA 1000 event in Guadalajara, we’re seeing a much stronger field than we normally would for a 125K.

Players like Marie Bouzkova, Leylah Fernandez, Elise Mertens, Magda Linette or even Osorio would normally only be found in draws of the 250 level tournaments or better.

With Osorio being a legitimate WTA Tour calibre player, I’m happy to back her here against Hibino, who I consider more of a low-level WTA player or strong player on the less-prestigious ITF Tour.

That difference in quality is precisely why I’m willing to play the games handicap here and give up a head start.

For starters, my numbers make Osorio a 4-game favourite to begin with. When we take a look at the stylistic matchup, as well as the profiles of the players that have recently beaten Hibino and what margin they’ve beaten her by, this selection becomes even more appealing.

In terms of matchup, Osorio isn’t just the much better player here, but she does everything that Hibino does well at a much higher level. She’s an elite mover, has incredible rally tolerance (or consistency to her game) and she’s far better at taking short balls and generating pace with her forehand to put points away.

When we look at the type of player that has beaten the Japanese pro of late, we see that exact kind of WTA calibre, consistent grinder. Martina Trevisan, Lauren Davis and Madison Brengle all have that defensive, consistent approach. They’re also all either in the same kind of talent range as Osorio, or worse. The best part? The average margin of victory for that trio? Seven games.

Camila Osorio vs Nao Hibino Best Bet

consistency, or young players that can’t hit through her or match her rock-solid play from the baseline are both vulnerable to being upset by the veteran.

Osorio simply isn’t either of those, and should be able to deal with the side-to-side point construction of Hibino, as well as dictate more and still minimise the number of unforced errors she commits.

I’ll happily take the -3.5-game handicap.