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Tennis | Thursday, December 8, 2022 8:59 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Angers, Alycia Parks vs Jaqueline Cristian

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Angers, Alycia Parks vs Jaqueline Cristian
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Alycia Parks vs Jaqueline Cristian Best Bet: Thursday, December 8th

Late-season tennis continues to be wildly unpredictable. Will be reducing staking from here on out to 1/10 or 2/10 as a result. Greet Minnen loses without putting up any fight at all on return to one of the worst players in the top-200 of the women’s game.

For Thursday, we’ll look at the match between Alycia Parks and Jaqueline Cristian.

In this article:


Alycia Parks vs Jaqueline Cristian Preview

December 8th, 14:30 UK Time

Betting against the hot hand may be anathema to some, but to me, it’s often a strong spot to find some value. The overreactions over five or six strong matches by both bookmakers and the market can lead to some players being much larger favourites than they deserve – and while many bets will lose, if you can find enough winners in the 2.50-3.00 region with underdogs, it can be a profitable strategy.

Such is the case with Parks come Thursday for me, as she takes on a totally different opponent in Cristian than she played in her first matchup. While Zhang enjoys quick courts with her aggressive and flat-hitting game, the Romanian is more of a counter-puncher who can make you play a ton of balls and has pulled off her fair share of upsets on indoor hard courts in the past.

Coming off a title and now a win over Zhang (although the top-25 pro from China looked positively awful), Parks is seeing an enormous amount of respect in the betting markets.

A few reasons I’m looking to oppose her here, however. First, on Wednesday, the 21-year-old’s serve couldn’t miss. To the point that we likely won’t see another ace rate that high from anyone for a few months. In other words, it was unsustainably strong. Second, her opposition may have had name recognition, but she was far from her best. That can lead many who didn’t watch the match to overvaluing that victory when handicapping Parks’ next match. Finally, Parks’ game simply isn’t the most repeatable in terms of her strengths. Her forehand is powerful, but she often looks to paint lines and plays with angles that are super high-risk, high-reward type shots. Eventually those simply start missing by an inch or two, as opposed to clipping the line.

With Crisitan well-positioned to run shots down and wait out that error, I think the Romanian has a decent shot to end Parks’ run and do so as a pretty substantial underdog.


Alycia Parks vs Jaqueline Cristian Best Bet

The American may very well continue her hot streak for another week, but her game just isn’t built for sustainable success, especially against someone that can make her play as many balls as Cristian can.

Zhang looked sluggish in the last round, floating in serves, while barely moving more than a step for many of Parks’ bigger first serves that landed in. Between the unlikelihood of Parks putting up the ace rate she managed on Wednesday, a game style that doesn’t lend itself to back-to-back long weeks and a decent opponent, I’m happy to have a small wager on Cristian here.

  • Selection: Cristian to Win
  • Best Odds: 3.50 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 7:15 am on December 8th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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