tennis | Thursday, November 10, 2022 8:47 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Colina, Mayar Sherif vs Brenda Fruhvirtova

Jon Reid

Mayar Sherif vs Brenda Fruhvirtova Best Bet: Thursday, November 10th

If there’s one day to tune into a WTA 125K event, Thursday would certainly be it. Some intriguing matchups – especially on clay – to tune into.

Leading off the day, one of the better young prospects in the game in Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva will square off with the ever-consistent Despina Papamichail in a matchup that will test her ability to play on the front foot.

Then later in the day, it’s one of the better players that you’ll find at these 125K level tournaments in Mayar Sherif taking on Czech wunderkind Brenda Fruhvirtova. It’s the second match that we’ll look to for our Thursday selection.

In this article:

Mayar Sherif vs Brenda Fruhvirtova Preview
Mayar Sherif vs Brenda Fruhvirtova Best Bet

Mayar Sherif vs Brenda Fruhvirtova Preview

November 10th, 18:00 UK Time

This is as close to a “popcorn match” as you’ll find at the 125K level.

One of the game’s top-65 players who lives for these clay-court events taking on a 15-year-old prospect that is on absolute fire and has already cracked the top-150 of the WTA rankings.

Sherif has reached the semifinals of eight events that range from the W60 level on the ITF Tour to the 250 rank of the WTA Tour since the start of 2021. While her athleticism, movement and backhand leave a bit to be desired, her extreme forehand grip allows her to generate a ton of topspin on clay (her hard-court record is the stuff of nightmares), her big serve finds her cheap points and her comfort on the surface allows her to dominate the lower levels.

Taking on a youngster that is underpowered and more defensive by nature, Sherif will be right at home using her big serve and heavy topspin game to dictate behind her own service games, while being able to pounce on the slower, more vulnerable Fruhvirtova serves.

There is no doubting the talent of her teenage opponent, but the fact is, much of her success has been built at the W25 level, where there are plenty of clay-court grinder type players that can’t really hit through Fruhvirtova. The last woman to beat her? Eva Vedder (the same woman she beat in the opening round here). The Dutchwoman was able to hit through the youngster’s defences, which is key to beating her.

Sherif’s bigger game should be able to trouble one of the game’s top prospects and the kick she can put on her serves and forehands will completely neutralise Fruhvirtova’s ability to attack much of anything.

If the backhand counterpunching ability of Fruhvirtova isn’t absolutely perfect throughout the match, it’s hard to put together a path to victory for her.

This comes off as a really in-form player with a reputation being priced accordingly, without really taking into account the big step up in competition she’ll be taking on the day.

I believe in her talent, but to imply this is essentially a dead-even match right now? That is going a bit too far. For my money, Sherif is the clear favourite.

Mayar Sherif vs Brenda Fruhvirtova Best Bet

It’s the marquee matchup of the day in Chile, and it’s also the match that presents the most value.

The nature of Fruhvirtova’s incredible run the last few months on the ITF Tour, combined with the hype around her and her sister as incredible prospects gives us a solid opportunity to actually oppose her in the betting markets against someone that is very strong in these conditions, matches up well against her and has shown historic success at this level.

I won’t be looking to oppose the Czech phenom at every turn, but I will look to pounce when the incredible overvaluation in her pricing provides me with a strong position.