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tennis | Monday, November 28, 2022 9:13 AM (Revised at: Monday, November 28, 2022 9:24 AM)

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Andorra, Sara Errani vs Sabine Lisicki

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Andorra, Sara Errani vs Sabine Lisicki
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Sara Errani vs Sabine Lisicki Best Bet: Monday, November 28th

Nothing on Friday from Montevideo for the women’s event, but Thursday’s selection ends up a loser, as the young Brenda Fruhvirtova was clearly feeling the impacts of all the tennis of late after the first set, as she was blanked in the second to keep the game total well under the number.

For Monday, we’ll head back to Europe and the indoor hard courts, as the women’s tour features another 125K event this week. This time in one of the smallest countries on the continent, in Andorra.

Only four matches on offer for the opening day of action in Andorra, and it’ll be the final match between Sara Errani and Sabine Lisicki that we focus on.

In this article:

Sara Errani vs Sabine Lisicki Preview

November 28th, 18:00 UK Time

Have to give credit where it’s due to Sara Errani, as she is set to play again this week, after embarking on a three-week tour of South American clay events.

It would’ve been very easy for her to just shut down her season after her most favourable surface left the calendar, but with a world ranking just outside of the top 100, she’s right on the precipice of entering the Australian Open directly, instead of having to play qualifying.

That is a big financial deal to professional tennis players, so here she is in Andorra, looking to find another win or two to claw her way as far up the rankings as she can.

Outside of that motivational angle, however, there isn’t much reason to like her in this matchup.

For starters, her opponent is someone whose game thrives in quicker conditions. Lisicki is well known for her strong first serve, high ace rate and preference for quicker surfaces. Indoors with no weather or any other conditions to level the playing and on GreenSet courts (almost always on the quicker end of the court pace spectrum for hard court tournaments), for me Lisicki is the better player.

Then there’s the form issue as well. The German hasn’t played a lot since the 2020 season, but this year when she did play on quicker courts, she lost to some pretty strong competition in Kateryna Baindl in a third-set tiebreak, Caroline Garcia (one of the stories of the 2022 season) by just four games, Daria Saville (back into the top-60 and likely higher if not rebuilding her ranking after a long injury absence) and Robin Montgomery in two tiebreaks (a very promising American teen).

Errani, on the other hand, looked incredibly tired for someone whose game is based on her ability to run and prolong points in her last match in Uruguay, was just 2-3 on a surface much more forgiving for her game style and is now playing her fourth straight week, with plenty of travel and a surface change from last week to this one.

Finally, the matchup is fairly one-sided, as this writeup has been alluding to. With Errani’s serve vulnerable regardless of surface, speeding up the courts and making it more difficult for her to find breaks of serve really hinders her ability to win matches.

Even the higher double fault rate of Lisicki isn’t of huge benefit, as Errani can be guilty of gifting points away in that manner herself. Not to mention, she can’t find nearly as many free points behind her first serve to make up for it, and even when she’s not double faulting, her second serves sit up and beg to be put away easily far too often.

Sara Errani vs Sabine Lisicki Best Bet

I can understand pricing this one up in a close manner (though I could make the case Lisicki should be the favourite here). Lisicki hasn’t played a lot in quite some time and Errani needs the win.

That said, Errani has looked like the gas tank is nearly empty the last few weeks and is now in much less favourable conditions, playing against someone whose game suits the surface well.

I’m fine with taking a position backing Lisicki here as an underdog.

  • Selection: Lisicki to win
  • Best Odds: 2.30 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 9:00 am on November 28th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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