tennis | Tuesday, December 13, 2022 8:42 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Limoges, Shuai Zhang vs Jessika Ponchet

Jon Reid

Shuai Zhang vs Jessika Ponchet Best Bet: Tuesday, December 13th

Bet. Won. After a brutal week in Angers, we start the week off right in Limoge, with a 6-4, 6-2 win from Clara Burel. It was a slow start, but her quality was on display in all the big moments in the second set to snap our losing skid. Even if it’s a small wager, it feels nice to see one in the win column!

Onto Tuesday, as we preview the match between Shuai Zhang and Jessika Ponchet.

In this article:

Shuai Zhang vs Jessika Ponchet Preview
Shuai Zhang vs Jessika Ponchet Best Bet

Shuai Zhang vs Jessika Ponchet Preview

December 13th, 9:00 UK Time

Unless these smaller events in France are dishing out appearance fees to the likes of Zhang in the middle of December, I can’t see a top-25 player signing up to play a 125K event only to tank out early.

As has been the case in recent weeks, I think a player like Zhang is far more likely to be playing these events to try and build some form heading into the new season, which begins in Australia. Keep in mind, the hard courts in Australia play on the quicker side of things, so the quick indoor French hard courts provide a pretty decent simulation, and with weaker fields, Zhang should be able to find a few wins and rhythm as she prepares to head down to a month of events that favour her game style.

As a flat hitter, who also likes to take the ball early, Zhang is perfectly-suited to quicker conditions, and for the most part, the 33-year-old’s success has come on courts that reward that kind of play.

After having written about Ponchet previously, the talent disparity between these two is far greater than the odds would indicate, and the baseline game should heavily skew towards Zhang. She didn’t look great in losses to Alycia Parks and Rebecca Peterson in recent weeks, but there’s no comparison between those two and the likes of a one-dimensional Ponchet.

On quicker courts, Zhang should be winning this upwards of 70% of the time – even if we factor in the recent sluggish play. With the odds currently implying a win percentage under 65%, it appears there’s a decent amount of value in backing her.

Shuai Zhang vs Jessika Ponchet Best Bet

I can appreciate the market looking at Ponchet’s sneaky success the last few weeks and Zhang’s lacklustre play (though everyone seems to be losing to Alycia Parks at the moment, so I’m not quite sure just how much that should be affecting this price point), a move from 1.38 odds to 1.60 seems like too much of a shift.

I have this one much closer to where Pinnacle opened this one up, with the market pushback being an overreaction, so I’m happy to back the veteran from China in this one.