tennis | Thursday, March 2, 2023 8:35 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Monterrey, Xinyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif

Jon Reid

Xinyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Best Bet: Thursday, March 2nd

It was an overnight result for the timezone I’m in for Tuesday from the women’s side of things in Austin, so no results update today.

For Thursday, we’ll look at the match in Monterrey, Mexico between Xinyu Wang and Mayar Sherif.

In this article:

Xinyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Preview
Xinyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Best Bet

Xinyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Preview

March 2nd, Time TBD (UK Time)

This is a terrific buy-low opportunity on the favourite, Wang, especially on a hard court against an opponent like Sherif.

The Egyptian is as close to a pure clay-court specialist as you could ask for, due primarily to her extreme racquet grip that helps produce incredible topspin, but can be rushed and is not conducive to success on hard courts and quicker surfaces.

The one thing she does have? A first serve. That was apparent in her win against Camila Osorio and the altitude certainly helps make that a more potent shot, but it’s not enough for me to justify her as a slight underdog here.

For starters, she’s still just 3-5 on the season overall. Two of those three wins came against injured opposition who retired during the match.

Second, her average margin when she’s lost? 6.5 games. That’s indicative of someone who is routinely dismantled by their competition, rather than someone who is just struggling to win close matches and has an unflattering record as a result.

Finally, her movement is also suspect, and with Wang’ ability to hit with power, not being able to get to the outer thirds of the court in an efficient manner can be tough.

Now, onto the Wang handicap. She’s also a big server, a natural on hard courts and while her form was really poor in 2022 (the most likely reason we’re seeing a decent price here on her to win), she’s amassed 11 wins already this season. Granted, most of those wins were against lesser competition, but as outlined above, for me, Sherif falls into that category.

Xinyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Best Bet

The metrics also lean heavily towards Wang in this matchup. The hold plus break percentage advantage is nearly 20% – an incredibly big difference.

Of particular interest to me in those numbers? The break percentage of Sherif sitting at 13%. Considering Wang has a big first serve and they’re playing in altitude, it becomes tough to see how she improves on that number come Thursday.

The blended hard-court elo rating is a little more kind to Sherif, but it still favours the Chinese pro by about 70 points.

All in all, I’m happy to back Wang to advance, and add a bonus selection on her to cover the handicap as well.