tennis | Wednesday, June 21, 2023 8:10 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Gaiba, Yanina Wickmayer vs Sofia Kenin

Jon Reid

Yanina Wickmayer vs Sofia Kenin Best Bet: Wednesday, June 21st

No result to report back from Tuesday’s article from the women’s side of things. Play got underway late in Berlin thanks to rain and they couldn’t complete all the matches on the schedule. That means Marketa Vondrousova and Bianca Andreescu will play their match on Wednesday, along with a slew of second round encounters.

For Wednesday’s women’s writeup, it’s the 125K event in Gaiba, Italy that has the match I want to preview. Yanina Wickmayer takes on Sofia Kenin in the second match of the day on Centre Court, and that’s the matchup we’ll break down.

In this article:

Yanina Wickmayer vs Sofia Kenin Preview
Yanina Wickmayer vs Sofia Kenin Best Bet

Yanina Wickmayer vs Sofia Kenin Preview

June 21st, 13:30 (UK Time)

Much like Andy Murray for our men’s preview on Tuesday, Yanina Wickmayer is on an extended win streak on grass courts at the lower level.

The Belgian managed to run off seven wins in Surbiton at the ITF event as a qualifier-turned-champion the week before last. The first few wins were nothing to write home about, but her ability to beat Daria Snigue, Katie Boulter and Katie Swan should be respected.

The main problem? She was a fairly large favourite in two of those wins and only emerged by the slimmest of margins. Equipped with a big serve and forehand combination, Wickmayer is always dangerous on grass courts. A strong serving day could very well be enough.

Other than that, however, she really doesn’t have much in the way of dynamism to her game. The overvaluation we saw against Snigue and Swan, as well as being a dominant favourite in her opening match this week against a relatively weak Priscilla Hon in a match she won by a relatively slim margin, indicates to me that she’s a tad overrated thanks to this win streak.

Enter Kenin, a player who has stumbled in the last few seasons, but still has the pedigree of a great player at the WTA Tour level and is a one-time grand slam champion. It’s worth keeping in mind that Kenin is still just 24 years old and in a field like this, likely one of the best players in the draw, regardless of her ranking.

She was dominant in dispatching Tamara Zidansek in the first round, and has the profile to trouble Wickmayer as well.

For starters, she has a far more well-rounded game. She also has no issue playing against big servers and hitters. She can move decently at the baseline and she actually likes pace to fire back into open space. She was actually one of the players that pushed standout star Elena Rybakina the most at Indian Wells, where the Kazakh ended up with the trophy.

Yanina Wickmayer vs Sofia Kenin Best Bet

The overvaluation of Wickmayer in the betting markets is rather pronounced right now. While winning the ITF event in Surbiton was impressive, I don’t think it should result in her being a favourite against a WTA level player, especially one like Kenin, whose game can play up against those with more power and whose counterpunching into open space is perfectly suited to exploit Wickmayer’s lack of movement.

It’s also worth mentioning that the grass courts in Gaiba tended to play a bit differently last season and that today Wickmayer didn’t look nearly as natural on them as she did on the more traditional British lawns. Had Hon been even remotely competent putting some of the weaker Wickmayer second serves back in play in big moments, she very well could have pulled off the upset.

I’ll back the American here, who for my money is the favourite to win the title in Gaiba against a relatively weak field, despite her struggles in the last year or two.