Venezia vs AC Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Venezia and AC Milan are in action in Sunday’s lunchtime game, a crucial encounter for both teams. Esebuio Di Francesco’s men are desperate to harvest points following their draw against Empoli, to escape relegation. Meanwhile, the Rossoneri  are buoyant after their 3-0 win in the Coppa Italia derby but need a positive result after their last disappointing Serie A performance against Atalanta. 

Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has analysed the statistics to offer betting insights for the game at the Pierluigi Penzo stadium. 

Venezia vs AC Milan Prediction: Rossoneri to march on after famous win

Serie A, Matchday 34, Sunday 27 April, 11:30 (UK)

On paper, Sergio Coinceçao’s side should emerge victorious, but the hosts are a tough nut to crack at home, as they’ve never lost by more than a goal margin this season. Venezia have been defeated only once over their last eight matches and last weekend they teetered on the brink of victory at Empoli, which would have propelled them outside the bottom three. 

They play a robust and well-structured, vertical game that’s entertaining to watch. However, their shortcomings are a defense that has kept only six clean sheets and an attack that averages less than a goal per game at home. 

Milan offered false hope with a convincing win in Udine, only to deliver a lacklustre performance against Atalanta. Perhaps, after a convincing victory in midweek against Inter Milan, their recovery can begin in Venice. 

Expect no more than three goals

While it seemed plausible Milan could topple the Nerazzurri, few anticipated such a dominant display. Wednesday’s 3-0 derby win reaffirms a previously noted observation: this Milan side is far stronger than their current league position, a humbling ninth place, and their early Champions League exit against Feyenoord suggests. Why has this happened? The easiest answer: managerial missteps were made.

Our prediction leans towards an away victory, likely in a match exceeding 2.5 goals in total. The last encounter earlier this season saw the Rossoneri thrash Venezia 4-0 in September, but while the visitors are the favourites, a repeat of a comprehensive scoreline seems unlikely, as only twice in their last six matches has the total goal count exceeded four. 

BETSiE Projections		HGF	AGF	GT	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Venezia vs AC Milan		0.81	2.2	3.01	12.9%	17.4%	69.8%

• Venezia vs AC Milan Prediction: AC Milan Asian Handicap -0.75
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Venezia vs AC Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 07:10, April 25th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Venezia vs AC Milan Team News: Derby hero set to start again

In the Venezia camp, Fila is available for selection and could start up front alongside Yeboah, potentially leaving Oristanio on the bench. Busio is set to keep his place in midfield, with Ellertsson and Zerbin occupying the flanks. In defence, a fit-again Schingtienne may edge out Marcandalli for a starting spot.

For the Rossoneri, there are concerns over Gabbia’s neck injury, with Thiaw on standby. Walker’s return adds competition for Tomori’s starting position. The flanks will be patrolled by Jimenez and Theo Hernandez, with Fofana and Reijnders in central midfield. Up front, Conceição is expected to rely on Jovic, while Abraham and the recovered Gimenez could come off the bench.

Venezia possible starting lineup:
Radu; Schingtienne, Idzes, Candé; Zerbin, Perez, Doumbia, Duncan, Ellertsson; Oristanio, Gytkjaer.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez; Pulìsic, Jovic, Leao.

Match Stats: ‘Masters of draws’ in search of an epic result

• AC Milan have emerged victorious in their last four Serie A encounters against Venezia, securing clean sheets in the three most recent clashes. The Rossoneri have never recorded four consecutive clean sheets against the Lagunari in the competition.
• Milan have remained unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 Serie A meetings with Venezia (11 wins, 2 draws – including a win awarded by default). Venezia’s only triumph in this period dates back to 19 March 2000, when they secured a 1-0 victory at the Penzo, courtesy of a goal by Filippo Maniero.
• The last draw between Venezia and Milan at the hosts’ home ground in Serie A was on 4 May 1947, ending 1-1. Since then, the visitors have secured six victories, while Venezia have won twice. 
• Venezia have drawn the most matches in Serie A this year, with nine stalemates out of 15 games (1 win, 5 defeats). Despite this, when considering points collected in the new calendar year, Venezia would sit outside the relegation zone, having amassed 12 points—three teams have collected fewer.

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