Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Tuesday, 30 December

Burnley will host Newcastle at Turf Moor on Tuesday, 30 December, in what promises to be an intriguing Premier League clash. This match is pivotal for both teams as they look to secure valuable points in the league standings. Burnley, playing on their home turf, will aim to capitalise on their familiarity with the conditions, while Newcastle will be eager to prove their mettle away from home.

The Premier League encounter between Burnley and Newcastle at Turf Moor is set to offer plenty of excitement for fans and bettors alike. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance this season, and this match could prove crucial in shaping their respective campaigns. With the stakes high, these betting tips will break down the key factors that could influence the outcome, providing insights into potential strategies for those looking to place a wager.

Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Newcastle to win	1.64

Considering Burnley’s recent struggles and Newcastle’s ability to control matches, my recommended betting tip is a win for Newcastle. Burnley’s winless streak and lack of goals at home contrast sharply with Newcastle’s stronger form and discipline.

• Burnley are winless in their last five matches and have failed to score in three of their home matches, indicating a lack of offensive prowess.
• Newcastle have scored first in 100% of their matches against Burnley in the past five seasons, showing a trend of strong starts.
• Despite conceding in their last five away matches, Newcastle’s overall form (2-1-2) is significantly better compared to Burnley’s (0-2-3).

Betting Odds

As we head into this Premier League clash, Newcastle are the clear favourites with odds of 1.64, reflecting their strong form this season. Burnley, playing at Turf Moor, are given longer odds at 5.00, suggesting a tough night ahead for the home side.

Betting Tip	Odds
Burnley to win	5
Draw	4.03
Newcastle to win	1.64

A draw is priced at 4.03, offering decent returns for those who fancy a stalemate. With Newcastle’s attacking prowess, punters might also look at markets for over 2.5 goals or both teams to score, which could provide some intriguing betting opportunities.

Burnley Analysis & Past Performance

Burnley’s recent form has been underwhelming, with the team failing to secure a win in their last five matches. They have recorded three losses and two draws, highlighting a need for improvement in both attack and defence. A recent 0-0 draw against Everton at Turf Moor underscored issues in converting possession into goals, despite having 55% possession and 15 shots.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Burnley	Everton	0 – 0 (Draw)	Premier League	27 Dec 2025
Bournemouth	Burnley	1 – 1 (Draw)	Premier League	20 Dec 2025
Burnley	Fulham	2 – 3 (Loss)	Premier League	13 Dec 2025
Newcastle	Burnley	2 – 1 (Loss)	Premier League	6 Dec 2025
Burnley	Crystal Palace	0 – 1 (Loss)	Premier League	3 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
In terms of goals, Burnley have struggled, averaging just 0.80 goals per game in their last five outings while conceding an average of 1.40 goals per match. Their defensive frailties are evident, having kept only one clean sheet in this period. Playing at home has not provided much advantage, with Burnley managing just one draw and four losses in their last five home fixtures.

Strengths & Weaknesses:

• DDLLL

There is a noticeable imbalance in Burnley’s performance dynamics. While they have managed to score in three out of their last five games, their inability to maintain defensive solidity has been costly. Zian Flemming, their top scorer with five goals, remains a key figure in their attacking setup, yet the team lacks consistency in finishing.

Burnley Suspensions & Injuries

Burnley will be significantly impacted by the unavailability of several key players, particularly in defence. The absence of Connor Roberts due to a muscle strain, expected to return in late January 2026, and Louis Jordan Beyer with a knee injury until mid-January 2026, will force Scott Parker to rethink his defensive strategies. Maxime Esteve is doubtful with a knock, adding further uncertainty to the lineup. Zeki Amdouni’s long-term absence with a cruciate ligament injury until early April 2026 removes a crucial attacking option from Burnley’s ranks.

Player	Reason for Absence	Matches Left	Anticipated Return
Axel Tuanzebe	International Duty	1	Undetermined
Hannibal Mejbri	International Duty	1	Undetermined
Lyle Foster	International Duty	1	Undetermined

The suspension of Axel Tuanzebe, Hannibal Mejbri, and Lyle Foster further complicates Burnley’s situation. With Tuanzebe and Foster each missing one more match due to international duty, and Mejbri also sidelined, these absences strip Burnley of depth and experience. The tactical impact of these suspensions is profound, likely necessitating a reshuffle in the midfield and forward positions.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Zeki Amdouni	Cruciate ligament injury	Early April 2026
Connor Roberts	Muscle strain	Late January 2026
Louis Jordan Beyer	Knee injury	Mid January 2026
Maxime Esteve	Knock	Doubtful

With these absences, replacements like Lesley Ugochukwu and Lucas Pires will need to step up in midfield, while the forward line will rely heavily on Marcus Edwards and Armando Broja to compensate for the missing firepower. Burnley’s ability to adapt tactically and maintain their competitive edge will be under scrutiny, which could influence betting markets, possibly favouring Newcastle given the home side’s depleted squad.

Burnley Key Players

Burnley’s attacking threat will heavily rely on Zian Flemming, their top scorer this season with five goals. Flemming’s ability to find the back of the net and his knack for positioning make him a constant threat to Newcastle’s defence. His role will be pivotal in breaking down defensive lines and creating scoring opportunities.

In midfield, the dynamic presence of Kyle Walker and Lesley Ugochukwu is crucial. Walker’s experience and tactical awareness provide stability, while Ugochukwu’s youthful energy and ball-winning skills add a layer of defensive solidity. Their interplay is expected to set the tempo and control the midfield battles, crucial for Burnley’s success.

Expected lineup for Burnley:

• Goalkeeper: Martin Dubravka
• Defence: Josh Laurent, Hjalmar Ekdal, Bashir Humphreys
• Midfield: Kyle Walker, Lesley Ugochukwu, Lucas Pires, Florentino
• Forward: Marcus Edwards, Armando Broja, Jacob Bruun Larsen

Defensively, Hjalmar Ekdal stands out with his commanding presence. His ability to read the game and intercept passes will be vital in nullifying Newcastle’s attacking threats. Alongside Ekdal, Bashir Humphreys will need to be alert in dealing with aerial threats. Together, they form a solid defensive partnership that could prove decisive in maintaining a clean sheet.

Burnley Tactics and Formation

Burnley Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forward: Armando Broja
• Midfield Pivot: Lesley Ugochukwu and Lucas Pires
• Defensive Strength: Recently kept a clean sheet against Everton
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on width and high pressing.

Burnley, under the guidance of Scott Parker, adopt a 3-4-3 formation that emphasises width and high pressing. The defensive line comprises Josh Laurent, Hjalmar Ekdal, and Bashir Humphreys, tasked with maintaining a solid backline that recently contributed to a clean sheet against Everton.

In midfield, the combination of Lesley Ugochukwu and Lucas Pires aims to provide both defensive cover and forward thrust. The presence of wing-backs like Kyle Walker enhances their ability to stretch the play and support both defensive and offensive transitions.

Offensively, Burnley rely on the prowess of Armando Broja, supported by wingers Marcus Edwards and Jacob Bruun Larsen. This trio looks to exploit spaces behind the opposition’s defence, focusing on creating chances through quick transitions and high pressing, which have been crucial in recent matches.

Newcastle Analysis & Past Performance

Newcastle have experienced a mixed set of results in their recent fixtures. Their last five matches have seen them secure a single win, alongside two draws and two losses. This includes a notable 2-2 draw against Chelsea, highlighting their ability to compete against strong opposition.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Manchester United	Newcastle	1 – 0 (Loss)	Premier League	26 Dec 2025
Newcastle	Chelsea	2 – 2 (Draw)	Premier League	20 Dec 2025
Newcastle	Fulham	2 – 1 (Win)	EFL Cup	17 Dec 2025
Sunderland	Newcastle	1 – 0 (Loss)	Premier League	14 Dec 2025
Bayer Leverkusen	Newcastle	2 – 2 (Draw)	Champions League	10 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
In terms of scoring, Newcastle have averaged 1.20 goals per game over their last five matches, with a total of six goals scored. On the defensive end, they’ve conceded an average of 1.40 goals per game, totalling seven goals against them. Interestingly, despite their struggles, they have managed to score in three out of their last five contests.

Away Performance:
Their away form has been particularly challenging, having won only one out of their last five away matches, with a win ratio of just 20%. Defensive frailties are evident as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of these games. Their current league position at 14th with 23 points reflects their inconsistent performances.

Tactical Insights:

• LDWLD

Newcastle’s reliance on Nick Woltemade up front, who is their top scorer with seven goals, showcases a potential strength in attack. However, their inability to consistently convert opportunities into victories and maintain defensive solidity on the road remains a critical area for improvement.

Newcastle Suspensions & Injuries

Newcastle face a significant challenge with several key players unavailable due to injuries. The absence of Kieran Trippier, a cornerstone in the defence, due to a hamstring injury, is particularly impactful, as his experience and leadership are hard to replace. Sven Botman’s back injury further compounds the defensive woes, although he is expected to return in about a week, which offers some optimism for upcoming fixtures.

With Emil Krafth and Jamaal Lascelles also sidelined, Newcastle’s defensive depth is stretched thin. This situation will likely see Malick Thiaw and Fabian Schär tasked with maintaining stability at the back. In the absence of Dan Burn and Valentino Livramento, Lewis Hall might continue to feature prominently in the defensive line.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
William Osula	Ankle injury	Mid January 2026
Kieran Trippier	Hamstring injury	Early January 2026
Sven Botman	Back injury	About a week
Emil Krafth	Knee injury	Early January 2026
Dan Burn	Rib injury	Mid January 2026
Valentino Livramento	Knee injury	Mid January 2026
Jamaal Lascelles	Muscle injury	Early January 2026
Anthony Elanga	Knock	Early January 2026

The injuries necessitate tactical adjustments from Eddie Howe, who may need to rely more on the attacking prowess of Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali to compensate for the defensive vulnerabilities. This could also see Newcastle adopting a more conservative approach to ensure solidity at the back.

These absences could influence betting markets, with Newcastle potentially seen as less formidable, especially in defence. Bettors may consider these factors when evaluating Newcastle’s chances against Burnley. The team’s ability to adapt and compensate for these losses will be crucial in determining the match outcome.

Newcastle Key Players

Leading the charge for Newcastle is their top scorer Nick Woltemade, who has found the net seven times this season. His presence in the forward line is integral, providing a blend of physicality and technical prowess that can unsettle defences. Woltemade’s ability to hold up play and bring others into the game makes him a pivotal figure in Newcastle’s attacking setup.

Bruno Guimarães in midfield is another key player, offering creativity and control. His vision and passing range can unlock defences, setting the stage for Newcastle’s forwards. Alongside him, Sandro Tonali provides a robust defensive presence, ensuring balance in the middle of the park. At the back, Malick Thiaw and Fabian Schär form a solid defensive partnership, tasked with thwarting Burnley’s attacking threats. Their aerial dominance and tackling ability are crucial for maintaining defensive solidity.

Expected lineup for Newcastle

• Goalkeeper: Aaron Ramsdale
• Defence: Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, Lewis Hall
• Midfield: Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Jacob Ramsey
• Forward: Jacob Murphy, Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon

Newcastle Tactics and Formation

Newcastle Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Nick Woltemade
• Midfield Engine: Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali
• Defensive Record: No clean sheets in the last five matches
• Notable Strategy: High possession play with a focus on midfield dominance.

Newcastle’s 4-3-3 formation under Eddie Howe is designed to maximise midfield control and facilitate quick transitions. Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali play pivotal roles in linking defence and attack, providing both creativity and defensive cover. Jacob Ramsey complements this setup with his box-to-box capabilities.

Offensively, Newcastle leverage the pace and skill of Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy on the wings, with Nick Woltemade leading the line as the primary goal threat. Despite scoring in three of their last five games, Newcastle’s forward line must improve efficiency, especially in converting possession into goals.

Defensively, the absence of key players like Kieran Trippier and Sven Botman means that the backline relies heavily on the young talents of Lewis Miley and Lewis Hall. This setup has struggled to maintain clean sheets, conceding in all of their recent matches, highlighting the need for improved defensive cohesion.

Burnley vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Record

In their last sixteen encounters, Newcastle have dominated the head-to-head record against Burnley with nine wins, while Burnley have managed just three victories, and five matches have ended in a draw. The most recent meeting saw Newcastle edge out Burnley 2-1 at St James’ Park in the Premier League earlier this month.

The last time Burnley hosted Newcastle at Turf Moor, they suffered a heavy 1-4 defeat in May 2024. This fixture has seen Newcastle consistently outperform Burnley, especially in recent Premier League clashes.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Newcastle United	Burnley	2 – 1	Premier League	2025-12-06
Burnley	Newcastle United	1 – 4	Premier League	2024-05-04
Newcastle United	Burnley	2 – 0	Premier League	2023-09-30
Burnley	Newcastle United	1 – 2	Premier League	2022-05-22
Newcastle United	Burnley	1 – 0	Premier League	2021-12-04