Nacional vs Casa Pia AC Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Sunday, 8 February

In the upcoming Liga Portugal fixture, Nacional will host Casa Pia AC at the Estádio da Madeira on Sunday, 8 February. The match is scheduled to kick off at 16:30, with both teams eager to secure crucial points in the league standings. As we present this prediction, match preview, and betting tips, we will consider the current form and strategies of both sides.

Nacional, playing on their home turf, will look to capitalise on their familiarity with the Estádio da Madeira to gain an edge over Casa Pia AC. Meanwhile, Casa Pia AC will aim to upset Nacional’s plans and make a statement with a strong away performance. The significance of this fixture lies in its potential impact on the league table, as both teams strive to climb higher in Liga Portugal. Bettors will be keen to analyse recent performances and head-to-head records to make informed decisions.

Nacional vs Casa Pia AC Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Nacional 0.00 (Asian Handicap)	1.75

Given the current form and statistics, our recommended betting tip is a win for Nacional with an Asian handicap 0 (draw no bet). Nacional have shown resilience, particularly at home, while Casa Pia AC’s defensive struggles suggest a favourable outcome for the hosts.

• Casa Pia AC have conceded an average of 2.1 goals per game this season, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
• Nacional have scored in 80% of their matches this season, demonstrating their consistent attacking threat.
• Casa Pia AC’s recent form is concerning, with only one win in their last 13 league games, making Nacional the more reliable option.

Nacional have a strong home record and perform notably better on their own ground, making it difficult for visiting teams to secure victories.

Betting Odds

Nacional enter this home fixture as favourites, priced at 2.10, but Casa Pia AC cannot be discounted. Their odds of 3.57 suggest there is potential for an upset, especially given their recent league form.

Betting Tip	Odds
Nacional to win	2.1
Draw	3.19
Casa Pia AC to win	3.57

A draw is priced at 3.19, which could appeal to those expecting a closely contested encounter. With both teams having much to prove, betting on both teams to score could also be worth considering.

Nacional Analysis & Past Performance

Nacional have endured a challenging spell recently, registering just one win in their last five matches. Their most recent outing, a narrow 1-2 defeat to Sporting CP, highlighted ongoing defensive issues. However, they demonstrated their attacking potential with a 4-0 victory over Rio Ave, their sole win in the last five games.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Sporting CP	Nacional	2 – 1 (Loss)	Liga Portugal	1 Feb, 2026
Nacional	Rio Ave	4 – 0 (Win)	Liga Portugal	25 Jan, 2026
Gil Vicente	Nacional	2 – 1 (Loss)	Liga Portugal	17 Jan, 2026
Nacional	Santa Clara	3 – 3 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	11 Jan, 2026
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Nacional	2 – 1 (Loss)	Liga Portugal	2 Jan, 2026

Recent Form:

• L W L D L

Nacional have averaged 2.00 goals per match in their last five games, while conceding an average of 1.80. They have scored in all five fixtures but kept only one clean sheet, indicating a need for defensive improvement. At home, their form is slightly better, with two wins, two defeats, and a draw from their last five home games. Currently sitting 11th in the league with 20 points, their win ratio stands at 20%, reflecting inconsistency in their performances.

Nacional Suspensions & Injuries

Nacional are facing a difficult situation with key players Ivanildo Fernandes, Filipe Soares, and Ulisses all listed as doubtful. The absence of Fernandes and Ulisses, who have been integral to the team’s defensive and midfield strategies, could force coach Tiago Margarido to make significant tactical adjustments. Without them, Nacional may have to rely on less experienced players, potentially affecting their defensive solidity and midfield creativity.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Ivanildo Fernandes	Unknown	Doubtful
Filipe Soares	Unknown	Doubtful
Ulisses	Unknown	Doubtful

With Fernandes and Ulisses sidelined, Nacional’s squad depth will be tested. Likely replacements such as Alan Núñez and Léo Santos in defence will need to step up. While they have shown promise, their ability to fill the void left by Fernandes remains uncertain. In midfield, Filipe Soares’ absence may see Gabriel Veron or Liziero taking on greater responsibility in orchestrating play.

These injuries could influence Nacional’s tactical approach, possibly prompting a more conservative setup to mitigate defensive vulnerabilities. The impact on betting markets could be significant, with Nacional potentially viewed as less formidable, thus affecting odds and predictions for their upcoming clash against Casa Pia AC.

Nacional Key Players

Nacional’s attacking threat is led by their top scorer, Jesús Ramírez, who has netted 13 times this season. His ability to exploit gaps in opposition defences and his clinical finishing make him a constant danger in the final third. Ramírez’s partnership with Gabriel Veron and Paulinho Bóia in attack is expected to be a key aspect of Nacional’s offensive strategy as they look to break down Casa Pia AC’s defence with pace and precision.

In midfield, Liziero plays a pivotal role in transitioning play from defence to attack, using his vision and passing accuracy to orchestrate Nacional’s moves. His interplay with Joel Silva and Matheus Dias will be crucial for maintaining possession and controlling the tempo. Defensively, the duo of Léo Santos and Zé Vítor are tasked with providing stability at the back, with their coordination and tackling ability vital to Nacional’s defensive resilience.

Expected lineup for Nacional:

• Goalkeeper: Kaique Pereira
• Defenders: Alan Núñez, Léo Santos, Zé Vítor, José Gomes
• Midfielders: Joel Silva, Matheus Dias, Liziero
• Forwards: Gabriel Veron, Jesús Ramírez, Paulinho Bóia

Nacional Tactics and Formation

Nacional Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 5-4-1
• Key Forward: Jesús Ramírez
• Midfield Dynamics: Gabriel Veron and Liziero
• Defensive Shape: Struggled for clean sheets, conceding in four of the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Compact defensively but often outnumbered in midfield.

Nacional’s recent matches under coach Tiago Margarido have featured a 5-4-1 formation, focusing on a solid defensive structure. With Alan Núñez, Léo Santos, Matheus Dias, Zé Vítor, and José Gomes in defence, the team aims to absorb pressure and limit the opposition’s chances.

In midfield, Gabriel Veron and Liziero play crucial roles both in defensive coverage and launching counterattacks. However, their setup often leaves them outnumbered in central areas, which has been problematic against possession-oriented teams.

Offensively, Jesús Ramírez is pivotal, leading the line with 13 goals this season. Despite this, Nacional have sometimes struggled to convert possession into goals, as shown by their solitary goal against Sporting CP in their latest outing. Their approach often relies on Ramírez’s ability to capitalise on limited opportunities.

Casa Pia AC Analysis & Past Performance

Casa Pia AC have endured a difficult run in recent fixtures, registering only one win in their last five matches. Their recent results include a notable 2-1 victory over FC Porto, a thrilling 3-3 draw with AVS Futebol SAD, and a 3-0 defeat to Sporting CP. These performances highlight their inconsistent form, with the team sitting 15th in the league on 18 points.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Casa Pia AC	FC Porto	2 – 1 (Win)	Primeira Liga	Feb 2, 2026
Casa Pia AC	AVS Futebol SAD	3 – 3 (Draw)	Primeira Liga	Jan 23, 2026
Sporting CP	Casa Pia AC	3 – 0 (Loss)	Primeira Liga	Jan 16, 2026
Rio Ave	Casa Pia AC	3 – 1 (Loss)	Primeira Liga	Jan 4, 2026
Casa Pia AC	Vitoria de Guimaraes	0 – 0 (Draw)	Primeira Liga	Dec 28, 2025

Recent Form:

• W D L L D

Casa Pia AC’s attack has averaged 1.20 goals per game over their last five outings, while their defence has struggled, conceding an average of 2.00 goals. They have managed just one clean sheet in this period, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities. Their away form remains inconsistent, with one win, three defeats, and one draw in their last five away fixtures, underlining the need for improvement on the road.

Casa Pia AC Suspensions & Injuries

Casa Pia AC are facing a challenging situation with several key players unavailable due to injury. The absence of Kiki Silva, who is recovering from a knee injury and whose return date is uncertain, further weakens their defensive options. Similarly, Duplexe Tchamba’s injury status, with a return expected in mid-February, adds to their defensive concerns. The team will also be without Kaique Rocha due to a muscle injury, further limiting their defensive depth.

José Fonte’s absence, also expected to return in mid-February, compounds the issues in Casa Pia AC’s defensive line. Without these players, coach Álvaro Pacheco will need to rely on less experienced squad members to fill the gaps, which could force Casa Pia AC to adopt a more conservative approach and impact their tactical flexibility.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Kiki Silva	Knee injury	Doubtful
Duplexe Tchamba	Unknown	Mid-February 2026
Kaique Rocha	Muscle injury	Doubtful
José Fonte	Unknown	Mid-February 2026

These injuries may influence betting markets, possibly lowering expectations for Casa Pia AC’s defensive solidity against Nacional. Bettors may take these absences into account when assessing the team’s chances, as a weakened defence could affect their ability to secure a positive result.

Overall, the absence of these players not only impacts the team’s immediate tactical plans but also their ability to rotate and manage player fatigue. The lack of defensive options may place greater pressure on the remaining squad members, which could prove decisive in their upcoming match.

Casa Pia AC Key Players

Jérémy Livolant stands out as Casa Pia AC’s top scorer with 3 goals this season. His role as a forward is pivotal, combining clinical finishing with intelligent movement off the ball, making him the primary threat against Nacional. Livolant’s ability to exploit defensive gaps with pace and precision will be crucial in breaking down the opposition backline.

Supporting Livolant in attack, Cassiano and Tiago Morais are expected to provide additional firepower. Cassiano’s physicality and aerial prowess offer a different attacking dimension, while Morais’s agility and technical skills can unsettle defenders. In midfield, Rafael Brito and Iyad Mohamed are key figures, tasked with controlling the tempo and linking play between defence and attack. Their vision and passing accuracy will be essential for maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities.

Expected lineup for Casa Pia AC

• Goalkeeper: Patrick Sequeira
• Defenders: João Goulart, Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira Kaly, David Sousa
• Midfielders: Gaizka Larrazabal, Iyad Mohamed, Rafael Brito, Abdu Conte
• Forwards: Tiago Morais, Cassiano, Jérémy Livolant

Defensively, the trio of João Goulart, Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira Kaly, and David Sousa will be integral to maintaining a solid backline. Their coordination and defensive awareness are vital in neutralising Nacional’s attacking threats. Patrick Sequeira, as goalkeeper, provides a reliable last line of defence, with his shot-stopping abilities potentially decisive in the outcome. The tactical approach will hinge on leveraging these key players’ strengths, aiming to balance attacking intent with defensive solidity.

Casa Pia AC Tactics and Formation

Casa Pia AC Tactical Breakdown:

• Recent Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Jérémy Livolant
• Midfield Engine: Lawrence Ofori
• Defensive Setup: Struggled defensively, with no clean sheets in the last three away games.
• Notable Strategy: Quick transitions and counter-attacks.

Casa Pia AC have been utilising a 4-3-3 formation under Álvaro Pacheco. This setup allows for a fluid attacking style, with Jérémy Livolant leading the line as the primary forward. The midfield, spearheaded by Lawrence Ofori, is tasked with linking defence and attack, providing both defensive cover and creative outlets.

Defensively, Casa Pia AC have faced challenges, notably failing to keep clean sheets in recent away fixtures. The backline, featuring João Goulart and David Sousa, will need to be vigilant against Nacional’s attacking threats. Kaly’s role as a versatile defender could be crucial in shoring up the defence.

Offensively, Casa Pia AC rely on rapid transitions and exploiting spaces on the counter. With Tiago Morais and Cassiano on the flanks, they aim to stretch the opposition and create scoring opportunities, particularly utilising Livolant’s finishing ability.

Nacional vs Casa Pia AC Head-to-Head Record

Nacional and Casa Pia AC have met 10 times in recent years, with Nacional leading the head-to-head record with 6 wins, compared to Casa Pia AC’s 4 victories and 3 draws. The last encounter saw Nacional secure a solid 2-0 win away at Casa Pia AC in Liga Portugal.

The last time these two sides met at the Estádio da Madeira, Nacional triumphed 3-1 in March 2025. Historically, Nacional have been strong at home, which could give them an edge in this upcoming fixture.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Casa Pia AC	Nacional	0 – 2	Primeira Liga	2025-08-30
Nacional	Casa Pia AC	3 – 1	Primeira Liga	2025-03-16
Casa Pia AC	Nacional	1 – 0	Primeira Liga	2024-10-25
Nacional	Casa Pia AC	0 – 0 (Extra time: 0 – 0) (Penalty shoot-out: 6 – 5)	Portuguese Cup	2023-11-25
Casa Pia AC	Nacional	2 – 1	League Cup Group A	2023-09-28