Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction, Match Preview, Wednesday, 7 January

Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction, Match Preview, Wednesday, 7 January. As Premier League action continues, Newcastle United will host Leeds United at St James’ Park. This midweek clash promises to be an intriguing encounter, with both teams looking to secure vital points in their respective campaigns. Newcastle, playing on home turf, will be eager to use their familiarity with St James’ Park to gain an advantage over their opponents.

Leeds, meanwhile, will aim to challenge Newcastle’s home advantage with their dynamic style of play. The Premier League standings could see significant shifts depending on the outcome of this match, making it a crucial fixture for both sides. With both teams striving for a strong performance, fans can expect a competitive and engaging match under the lights on Wednesday evening.

Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Bet on a draw between Newcastle United and Leeds United.	3.3

Given the current form and squad issues for both teams, the draw at odds of around 3.30 represents strong value. Neither Newcastle nor Leeds have shown enough consistency or attacking firepower to dominate this clash, making a stalemate the smart pick.

• Both teams are dealing with significant injuries and suspensions, which will likely impact their usual attacking strengths.
• Recent head-to-head encounters have been low-scoring, with fewer than 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five meetings.
• Newcastle’s last four matches have resulted in just one win, while Leeds are winless in their last two, indicating a tightly contested game.

Betting Odds

Newcastle step onto the pitch at St James’ Park as favourites with odds of 1.68, reflecting their strong home form. Leeds, on the other hand, are seen as underdogs with odds of 5.04, but their ability to surprise on the road should not be underestimated.

Betting Tip	Odds
Newcastle to win	1.68
Draw	3.81
Leeds to win	5.04

The draw is priced at 3.81, which could be tempting given the competitive nature of Premier League clashes. Punters might also consider the over 2.5 goals market, considering both teams’ attacking capabilities.

Newcastle Analysis & Past Performance

Newcastle have shown a commendable level of consistency in their recent outings, evidenced by a current unbeaten home streak of five matches. Their recent performances include a solid 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace, emphasising their defensive resilience and attacking prowess.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Newcastle	Crystal Palace	2 – 0 (Win)	Premier League	4 Jan 2026
Burnley	Newcastle	1 – 3 (Win)	Premier League	30 Dec 2025
Manchester United	Newcastle	1 – 0 (Loss)	Premier League	26 Dec 2025
Newcastle	Chelsea	2 – 2 (Draw)	Premier League	20 Dec 2025
Newcastle	Fulham	2 – 1 (Win)	EFL Cup	17 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Analysing their last five matches, Newcastle have secured three wins, one draw, and one loss, with an average of 1.80 goals scored per match. The team have managed to score in four out of these five fixtures, reflecting a potent attack led by top scorer Nick Woltemade, who has netted seven goals this season. Defensively, they’ve conceded an average of 1.00 goals per game, highlighting room for improvement in maintaining clean sheets, as they’ve achieved just one in this period.

Home Performance:

• WWLDW

At St James’ Park, Newcastle remain undefeated in their last five home games, winning three and drawing two. This home form is underpinned by a 60% win ratio, reinforcing the fortress-like nature of their home ground. Their attacking threat is well-supported by a tactical approach that balances possession and counter-attacks, as seen in their 59% possession against Crystal Palace.

Newcastle Suspensions & Injuries

Newcastle face several injury concerns ahead of their clash with Leeds, with key players such as Dan Burn and Jamaal Lascelles unavailable. Burn’s rib injury and Lascelles’ muscle issue leave a significant gap in defence, potentially forcing Eddie Howe to rely on the less experienced Lewis Miley and Malick Thiaw to step up. The absence of Emil Krafth due to a knee injury further limits defensive options, challenging Newcastle’s backline resilience.

The midfield remains intact, but the injury to Anthony Elanga, who is sidelined with a knock, reduces attacking depth. This could mean more responsibility for Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon to drive the attack. The tactical impact is considerable, as Howe may need to adjust his formation to compensate for the defensive absences, potentially shifting to a more conservative approach to maintain solidity.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
William Osula	Ankle injury	Mid January 2026
Emil Krafth	Knee injury	Mid January 2026
Dan Burn	Rib injury	Mid January 2026
Jamaal Lascelles	Muscle injury	Doubtful
Anthony Elanga	Knock injury	Mid January 2026

With no suspensions to contend with, Newcastle’s focus will be on how effectively they can manage these injuries. The betting implications suggest a tighter contest, with Newcastle’s defensive vulnerabilities possibly affecting their odds. However, their strong midfield presence with Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton remains a positive, potentially counterbalancing the defensive frailties.

Newcastle Key Players

Newcastle’s attack will be spearheaded by their top scorer, Nick Woltemade, who has netted seven goals this season. Woltemade’s clinical finishing and ability to find space in opposition defences make him a constant threat in the final third. His presence up front is complemented by the dynamic wing play of Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon, both of whom offer pace and creativity on the flanks. Barnes’ ability to cut inside and shoot, combined with Gordon’s knack for creating goal-scoring opportunities, provides Newcastle with a potent attacking trio.

In midfield, Bruno Guimarães is pivotal as the playmaker, orchestrating the team’s attacks with his vision and passing accuracy. His partnership with Sandro Tonali and Joelinton provides a balanced mix of defensive solidity and attacking prowess. Guimarães’ ability to control the tempo of the game and link defence with attack is crucial for Newcastle’s tactical approach.

Defensively, Malick Thiaw and Fabian Schär form a robust centre-back pairing, tasked with maintaining Newcastle’s defensive stability. Thiaw’s aerial ability and Schär’s experience and leadership are vital for repelling Leeds’ attacking threats. In goal, Nick Pope’s shot-stopping skills and command of the penalty area further solidify Newcastle’s defensive setup.

Expected lineup for Newcastle:

• Goalkeeper: Nick Pope
• Defenders: Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, Lewis Hall
• Midfielders: Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton
• Forwards: Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa, Anthony Gordon

Newcastle Tactics and Formation

Newcastle Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Yoane Wissa
• Midfield Trio: Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton
• Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Utilises width and pace in attack with effective high pressing.

Newcastle’s 4-3-3 formation is designed to maximise their attacking width and pressing intensity. With Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, and Joelinton in midfield, they combine physicality and technical skill to dominate possession and transition effectively between phases.

Defensively, the back four of Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, and Lewis Hall are tasked with providing stability. Despite recent absences in the defensive lineup due to injuries, such as Dan Burn and Jamaal Lascelles, their defensive organisation remains crucial, having managed to secure a clean sheet in their recent win against Crystal Palace.

Offensively, Newcastle leverage the pace of wingers Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon, alongside Yoane Wissa, who leads the line. The high pressing and quick transitions are key components of Eddie Howe’s strategy, aiming to disrupt Leeds’ build-up and exploit spaces in their defence.

Leeds Analysis & Past Performance

Leeds have maintained a resilient yet inconsistent form recently, with their last five matches resulting in four draws and one victory. A notable 4-1 win against Crystal Palace highlighted their attacking potential, but their inability to secure wins consistently has kept them in the lower part of the Premier League table.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Leeds United	Manchester United	1 – 1 (Draw)	Premier League	4 Jan 2026
Liverpool	Leeds United	0 – 0 (Draw)	Premier League	1 Jan 2026
Sunderland	Leeds United	1 – 1 (Draw)	Premier League	28 Dec 2025
Leeds United	Crystal Palace	4 – 1 (Win)	Premier League	20 Dec 2025
Brentford	Leeds United	1 – 1 (Draw)	Premier League	14 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• DDDWD

Leeds have averaged 1.40 goals per game over their last five fixtures, indicating a moderate attacking output. However, their defence has been relatively solid, conceding only 0.80 goals per match on average, and achieving one clean sheet during this period. Despite this, their away form remains a concern, as they have failed to win away from home in their last five attempts, drawing three and losing two. This inability to convert performances into wins away from Elland Road could be pivotal in their upcoming fixture against Newcastle.

Leeds Suspensions & Injuries

Leeds face the challenge of overcoming injuries to key players Daniel James and Joe Rodon, both sidelined with a hamstring and ankle injury respectively. Daniel James, known for his pace and ability to stretch defences, will be missed on the flanks. Joe Rodon’s absence could impact defensive solidity, although the presence of Pascal Struijk and Jaka Bijol in the lineup provides some reassurance.

With Daniel James absent, Leeds may rely more heavily on Brenden Aaronson to provide creative outlets in attacking midfield, potentially altering their attacking dynamics. Meanwhile, the defensive structure remains largely intact, with Sebastiaan Bornauw and Pascal Struijk expected to anchor the backline in Rodon’s absence.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Daniel James	Hamstring Injury	Late January 2026
Joe Rodon	Ankle Injury	Mid January 2026

The tactical impact of these injuries might see Leeds adopting a slightly more conservative approach, focusing on maintaining a solid defensive shape while looking to exploit counter-attacking opportunities through the likes of Noah Okafor and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. These absences could also influence the betting markets, potentially favouring Newcastle at St James’ Park.

Leeds Key Players

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Leeds’ top scorer with eight goals, is pivotal to their attacking strategy against Newcastle. His proficiency in the air and clinical finishing make him a constant threat, especially on counter-attacks and set pieces. Playing as the lone forward, his ability to hold up play and bring teammates into the game will be crucial. Calvert-Lewin’s partnership with Brenden Aaronson, who operates just behind him, could unlock Newcastle’s defence with quick interplays and incisive passes.

In midfield, Anton Stach and Ilia Gruev are key players who provide both defensive cover and creative impetus. Stach’s physical presence and ability to break up play will be vital in controlling the midfield battle, while Gruev’s vision and passing range can initiate swift transitions from defence to attack. On the flanks, James Justin and Gabriel Gudmundsson offer width and pace, looking to stretch Newcastle’s defence and create crossing opportunities for Calvert-Lewin.

Expected lineup for Leeds

• Goalkeeper: Lucas Perri
• Defence: Sebastiaan Bornauw, Jaka Bijol, Pascal Struijk
• Midfield: James Justin, Anton Stach, Ilia Gruev, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Brenden Aaronson, Noah Okafor
• Forward: Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Leeds Tactics and Formation

Leeds Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
• Midfield Engine: Anton Stach and Ilia Gruev
• Defensive Solidity: One clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Utilises wing-backs for width and quick transitions.

Leeds, managed by Daniel Farke, adopt a 3-4-2-1 formation that emphasises a strong central presence with flexibility in attack. Dominic Calvert-Lewin spearheads the attack, supported by creative midfielders Brenden Aaronson and Noah Okafor, who thrive in exploiting spaces between the lines.

Defensively, Leeds rely on a back three comprising Sebastiaan Bornauw, Jaka Bijol, and Pascal Struijk, tasked with maintaining a compact shape. The presence of Lucas Perri as goalkeeper contributes to their defensive efforts, although they’ve managed only one clean sheet in recent outings.

Offensively, Leeds leverage the width provided by wing-backs James Justin and Gabriel Gudmundsson, allowing them to stretch opposition defences and support rapid transitions. This approach has been effective in maintaining a high goalscoring average, though it often leaves them vulnerable to counterattacks.

Newcastle vs Leeds Head-to-Head Record

Newcastle have the upper hand in their head-to-head record against Leeds, boasting nine wins compared to Leeds’ four, with seven matches ending in a draw. Their last encounter was a goalless draw at Elland Road in August 2025, a typically tight affair in the Premier League.

The last time these two met at St James’ Park, it ended in a 0-0 draw in December 2022. Newcastle have generally been strong at home, but recent meetings suggest a trend towards low-scoring games.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Leeds United	Newcastle United	0 – 0	Premier League	2025-08-30
Leeds United	Newcastle United	2 – 2	Premier League	2023-05-13
Newcastle United	Leeds United	0 – 0	Premier League	2022-12-31
Leeds United	Newcastle United	0 – 1	Premier League	2022-01-22
Newcastle United	Leeds United	1 – 1	Premier League	2021-09-17