Necaxa vs. Leon Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 16 August 2025

On 16 August 2025, Necaxa will host Leon in what promises to be an intriguing Liga MX clash at Estadio Victoria. With Necaxa sitting 8th in the standings and Leon struggling at 15th, this match holds substantial importance for both teams.

Necaxa, under the guidance of coach Fernando Gago, aims to bounce back strong after a mixed bag of results. Their solid goal-scoring form, averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last five, makes them the bookmaker’s favourite. Leon, coached by Eduardo Berizzo, has shown vulnerabilities, failing to secure a win in their last five matches.

Both sides have struggled defensively, with neither keeping a clean sheet recently. However, Necaxa’s home advantage and dynamic attack could see them taking control of the midfield and creating dangerous opportunities, especially exploiting Leon’s late-game defensive lapses.

Recommended bet: Necaxa to win. This match could be a turning point in both teams’ seasons, contributing to the grand narrative of Liga MX.

Necaxa vs Leon Prediction & Betting Tip

Given the match dynamics, our recommended bet is "Necaxa to win". Necaxa’s home advantage and current form make them the potential victors of this clash against a struggling Leon side. Their ability to control the midfield and create dangerous opportunities can be decisive, especially given Leon’s defensive vulnerabilities late in the game.

• Necaxa has been better offensively, scoring an average of 2.4 goals in their last five games.
• Leon has not won any of their last five matches, showcasing weak form.
• Necaxa has shown to be more effective in exploiting key moments against Leon historically.

Necaxa vs Leon Odds

The odds for this Liga MX clash between Necaxa and Leon are quite telling of the expectations. With Necaxa being favorites, bookmakers are closely watching how Leon will respond to their recent run of poor form.

Necaxa’s strong home performance and recent goal-scoring prowess add weight to their favorite status. Their ability to dominate midfield and create swift transitions could outshine Leon’s struggling defense. For those considering a bet, Necaxa to win at odds of 2.00 appears to be a well-calculated choice. Leon’s odds reflect their need to significantly improve to challenge the hosts effectively. Given Necaxa’s current form and Leon’s vulnerabilities, these odds paint an accurate picture of the anticipated match dynamics.

Necaxa Team Analysis

Necaxa Recent Performance

Necaxa’s recent form has been a mixed bag, with two draws, two losses, and a win in their last five matches. Their recent performances are as follows:

• Drew 1-1 against Club Universidad Nacional
• Lost 5-1 to Orlando City
• Lost in a penalty shootout (2-2 in regular time) to Inter Miami CF
• Won 3-1 against Atlanta United
• Drew 1-1 with CF America

Despite not keeping a clean sheet in these fixtures, they have shown an impressive goal-scoring ability, averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last five. This attacking prowess makes them a formidable side, especially at home. However, defensive frailties have been evident, and they must tighten up at the back to sustain their positive form. As they prepare to face Leon, the team’s focus will likely be on maintaining their attacking momentum while bolstering their defensive efforts.

Necaxa Key Players

Necaxa will be counting on their key players to deliver once again. Pavel Pérez stands out as the team’s top scorer with 2 goals so far this season. His ability to break down defenses and find the net will be crucial in this encounter.
However, midfield control will also be vital, with José Iván Rodríguez and Agustín Palavecino likely orchestrating play from the center. Their chemistry and ability to transition from defense to attack rapidly can be a significant advantage.
In defense, Alexis Peña and Diego De Buen must step up to nullify Leon’s attacking threats, particularly from James Rodríguez. The anticipated individual battle between these players could be decisive in the match’s outcome.
Expected lineup for Necaxa:

• Goalkeeper: Luis Ezequiel Unsain
• Defenders: Tomas Jacob, Alexis Peña, Diego De Buen, Cristian Calderón
• Midfielders: Kevin Rosero, José Iván Rodríguez, Agustín Palavecino, Raúl Sánchez
• Forwards: Diber Cambindo, Ricardo Monreal

Necaxa Suspensions & Injuries

Going into this match, Necaxa has a couple of injury concerns that could impact their squad. Agustín Oliveros is doubtful with a leg injury, which might force coach Fernando Gago to make some defensive adjustments. Emilio Lara, who is recovering from an elbow injury, has a potential return date around mid-August 2025 but is still uncertain for this fixture.

These absences could affect the overall defensive stability and depth of the team. The probable lack of Oliveros means the team may need to rely more on remaining defenders like Cristian Calderon and Alexis Peña to cover the gaps effectively. Despite these concerns, Necaxa has the offensive depth and capability to manage the game well.

Necaxa Tactics and Formation

Necaxa Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-4-2
• Key Forwards: Diber Cambindo, Ricardo Monreal
• Central Midfield Control: Kevin Rosero, José Iván Rodríguez, Agustín Palavecino, Raúl Sánchez
• Defensive Line: Tomás Jacob, Alexis Peña, Diego De Buen, Cristian Calderón
• Notable Strategy: Fast transitions and exploiting the 16-30-minute interval to score

Necaxa typically utilizes a 4-4-2 formation under coach Fernando Gago, focusing on solid midfield control and quick transitions. Diber Cambindo and Ricardo Monreal lead their attacking line, leveraging their pace and positioning to create scoring opportunities.

In the midfield, Kevin Rosero and José Iván Rodríguez anchor the play, facilitating rapid shifts from defense to attack. Defensively, a line led by Alexis Peña and Diego De Buen must be vigilant to cover any gaps left by their attacking full-backs.

The team aims to dominate the game, especially in the first half, taking advantage of León’s tendency to concede goals during the 31-45 and 61-75-minute intervals.

Leon Team Analysis

Leon Recent Performance

Leon has had a tough run, recently registering a string of five consecutive losses. Their last five matches include:

• Lost 1-3 to Monterrey
• Lost 0-1 to Columbus Crew
• Lost 0-2 to New York City FC
• Lost to CF Montreal on penalties after a 1-1 draw
• Lost 1-4 to Cruz Azul

This dismal form places them 15th in the league standings with only 3 points. They have averaged 1.8 goals per game over their last five matches but struggled defensively, failing to keep any clean sheets.

Their inability to maintain defensive solidity has severely impacted their performance, and they will aim to address these issues before facing a significantly stronger Necaxa side. Leon’s manager Eduardo Berizzo will need to inspire a turnaround to climb up the standings.

Leon Key Players

Despite Leon’s struggles, key players can still impact the game significantly. James Rodriguez, their top scorer with one goal, remains an essential figure in breaking down Necaxa’s defense. His attacking creativity and vision can be critical, especially in set-piece situations. Rogelio Funes Mori will also play a pivotal role up front, attempting to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Necaxa. In midfield, Rodrigo Echeverria will need to anchor the play and disrupt Necaxa’s transitions, while defenders like Jaine Stiven Barreiro and Adonis Frias must tighten up to avoid conceding early goals.

Expected lineup for Leon:

• Goalkeeper: Oscar Damián García
• Defenders: Ivan Moreno, Jaine Stiven Barreiro, Adonis Frias, Salvador Reyes
• Midfielders: James Rodriguez, Rodrigo Echeverria, Nicolás Fonseca, Jordi Cortizo
• Forwards: Ismael Díaz, Jose Alvarado

Their individual battles, particularly James Rodriguez against Necaxa’s central defenders, will be crucial in determining the game’s outcome.

Leon Suspensions & Injuries

Leon heads into this match without any reported suspensions or injuries, which is a positive note for manager Eduardo Berizzo. Having a full squad available means Berizzo can field his strongest team and possibly address the defensive frailties that have plagued their recent performances.

With no key players sidelined, Leon has the opportunity to implement strategic changes and better prepare to counteract Necaxa’s strengths. This could be crucial in their attempt to turn their season around and start climbing up from the 15th position in the league standings.

Leon Tactics and Formation

Leon Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Jose Alvarado
• Creative Force: James Rodriguez
• Defensive Challenges: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Strong finishing in the 61-75-minute interval

Leon typically sets up in a 4-2-3-1 formation under Eduardo Berizzo, focusing on maintaining possession and attacking through the flanks. Jose Alvarado leads the line, supported by the creative midfield trio of James Rodriguez, Jordi Cortizo, and Ismael Díaz. James Rodriguez’s playmaking abilities are crucial, especially in breaking down Necaxa’s defence.

Rodrigo Echeverria and Nicolás Fonseca anchor the midfield, aiming to disrupt Necaxa’s advances and launch counter-attacks. Defensively, Jaine Stiven Barreiro and Adonis Frias need to be more cohesive to prevent conceding, particularly vulnerable during the final 15 minutes of the game.

Necaxa vs Leon Head-to-Head Statistics

Analysing the last five meetings between Necaxa and Leon reveals a competitive history with mixed results:

• Necaxa 2 – 1 Leon on 15 March 2025, Liga MX Clausura
• Leon 1 – 1 Necaxa on 22 July 2024, Liga MX Apertura
• Necaxa 1 – 2 Leon on 1 April 2024, Liga MX Clausura
• Leon 1 – 1 Necaxa on 2 September 2023, Liga MX Apertura
• Leon 2 – 1 Necaxa on 17 January 2023, Liga MX Clausura

Of these encounters, Leon has a slight edge, having won twice compared to Necaxa’s solitary win. However, Necaxa has shown they can challenge Leon, especially at home, as evidenced by their most recent victory. Historically, these matches have been tightly contested, with an even spread of goals and no clear dominator. This upcoming match could swing either way, making it a fascinating fixture in the context of their ongoing rivalry.

Venue and Weather

Estadio Victoria, the venue for this matchup, boasts a capacity of approximately 25,500 spectators and creates an intimidating atmosphere for visiting teams. Necaxa often thrives at this ground, using the fervent support to boost their performance.

While weather specifics are not detailed, mid-August conditions in Aguascalientes are typically warm and could influence the match dynamics. Players must remain hydrated and manage their stamina wisely to avoid late-game fatigue, especially since both teams struggle defensively in the latter stages.

These conditions could see Necaxa leveraging their fast-paced transitions and taking control early, capitalizing on any energy dips from Leon towards the end of the match. A warm night might also crank up the tempo, benefiting Necaxa’s swift attacking style.

Odds accurate as of 14/08/2025 04:02, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.