Necaxa vs. Puebla Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 20 September 2025

Football fans in the UK, get ready for an interesting Liga MX clash as Necaxa takes on Puebla on 20 September 2025 at 02:00 at Estadio Victoria.

Both teams are struggling at the bottom of the table, with Necaxa in 16th position and Puebla in 18th. Necaxa, though, are favourites with their 1.71 odds for a win. Their historical head-to-head advantage, having won three of the last five encounters, further boosts their confidence.

Necaxa has been up and down lately with three losses and two draws in their last five matches. They are yet to record a clean sheet, but Pavel Perez, their top scorer, will look to exploit Puebla’s defensive weaknesses.

Puebla has also been in poor form, with no wins in their last five encounters, conceding an average of 3.20 goals per match. Their injuries and suspensions deepen their woes, making it likely that Necaxa could capitalise on their struggles.

Given Puebla’s defensive frailties and Necaxa’s advantage playing at home, betting on a home win could be a smart move. Make sure to keep tabs on the weather and other critical match information as game day approaches.

Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction & Betting tip

Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Home Win	1.71

Best Bet Recommendation: Home Win (Necaxa)

Reasoning:

1. Head-to-Head Advantage: Necaxa has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Puebla, including a recent 1-0 victory in April 2025.
2. Comparative Form: While both teams are struggling, Necaxa’s form (DLLLD) is slightly better than Puebla’s (LLDLL), and they have a marginally better standing (16th vs 18th).
3. Defensive Vulnerabilities of Puebla: Puebla has conceded an average of 3.20 goals per match, indicating significant defensive weaknesses that Necaxa could exploit.
4. Home Advantage: Playing at home could provide Necaxa with the necessary edge to secure a win, especially against a team with a poor away record.

Given these factors, the smart money is on Necaxa to clinch a much-needed victory at the Estadio Victoria.

Necaxa vs Puebla Odds

The odds are leaning in favour of Necaxa in this Liga MX contest against Puebla. The bookmakers have pegged Necaxa as the favourites to win with odds of 1.71, whereas a draw stands at 3.76 and an away win for Puebla is offered at 4.23.

Necaxa vs Puebla Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Necaxa Win	1.71
Draw	3.76
Puebla Win	4.23

These odds reflect the current league standings and recent performances of both teams. Necaxa’s slight edge in recent head-to-head matchups and Puebla’s defensive struggles this season make a home win a likely scenario. However, the possibility of a draw should not be completely ruled out, given the form of both teams.

Necaxa Team Analysis

Necaxa Recent Performance

Necaxa’s recent form has been far from impressive, registering three defeats and two draws in their last five matches:

• Necaxa 1-1 FC Juarez (2025-09-13)
• Tijuana 3-0 Necaxa (2025-09-01)
• Monterrey 3-0 Necaxa (2025-08-24)
• Necaxa 0-1 Leon (2025-08-16)
• Club Universidad Nacional 1-1 Necaxa (2025-08-11)

Recent Form:

DLLLD

Despite their struggles, Necaxa has managed to score an average of 0.40 goals per game and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five outings. Their inability to secure wins and their defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded most goals in the intervals of 0-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 minutes, are factors to consider.

With head coach Fernando Gago steering the ship, they will look to turn their fortunes around in front of their home crowd at the Estadio Victoria against Puebla.

Necaxa Key Players

Necaxa will be relying on their key players to make a difference in their clash against Puebla. Leading the pack is top scorer Pavel Perez, who has netted 2 goals this season and will aim to exploit Puebla’s defensive lapses. Midfielder Agustín Palavecino and centre forward Tomas Badaloni are also expected to play crucial roles in both creating and converting chances.

Key individual battles will likely involve Pérez against Puebla’s central defenders, where his ability to find space and finish could be the deciding factor.

Expected lineup for Necaxa:

• Goalkeeper: Luis Ezequiel Unsain
• Defenders: Agustín Oliveros, Tomas Jacob, Alexis Pena, Franco Rossano
• Midfielders: Kevin Rosero, Diego De Buen, Agustín Palavecino, José Ivan Rodríguez, Pavel Uriel Pérez
• Attackers: Tomas Badaloni

With Fernando Gago at the tactical helm, the team will be looking to their experienced players to steer them to victory.

Necaxa Suspensions & Injuries

Necaxa will have to navigate this crucial matchup without the services of Emilio Lara, sidelined with an elbow injury until early October 2025. Additionally, Ricardo Monreal and Diber Cambindo are both suspended for two matches due to red card offenses.

These absences could hamper Necaxa’s defensive and midfield solidity. Lara’s injury leaves a gap at the back, while Monreal and Cambindo’s suspensions reduce the depth and dynamism in the midfield. This could lead to increased reliance on players like Agustín Oliveros and Diego De Buen to plug the gaps and maintain stability.

Coach Fernando Gago will need to strategically manage these absences to prevent them from becoming a liability against Puebla.

Necaxa Tactics and Formation

Necaxa Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected to line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation
• Key Forward: Tomas Badaloni
• Midfield Trio: Kevin Rosero, Agustín Palavecino, José Ivan Rodríguez
• Defensive Line: Agustín Oliveros, Tomas Jacob, Alexis Pena, Franco Rossano
• Notable Strategy: Focus on controlling the midfield and exploiting Puebla’s defensive vulnerabilities

Under the guidance of coach Fernando Gago, Necaxa typically deploys a single striker upfront, supported by a dynamic midfield willing to press and transition quickly. Their formation aims to provide stability at the back while fostering creativity through the middle, with Pavel Uriel Pérez and Agustín Palavecino expected to drive forward runs.

Given Puebla’s tendency to concede heavily, Necaxa will look to dominate possession and create ample scoring opportunities. The 4-1-4-1 setup is designed to balance defensive robustness with attacking flair, making them a formidable outfit, especially at home.

Puebla Team Analysis

Puebla Recent Performance

Puebla’s recent performances have been underwhelming, as they have failed to register a win in their last five outings:

• Toluca 3-1 Puebla (2025-09-14)
• Puebla 2-4 Monterrey (2025-08-30)
• Club Universidad Nacional 0-0 Puebla (2025-08-24)
• Seattle Sounders FC 0-0 Puebla (Penalty shoot-out: 4-3) (2025-08-21 Leagues Cup Final Stage)
• Puebla 0-2 Atletico de San Luis (2025-08-16)

Recent Form:

LLDLL

Throughout these encounters, Puebla has managed an average of 1.20 goals per game but only secured one clean sheet. They have been particularly fragile defensively, conceding an average of 3.20 goals per match. This indicates significant vulnerabilities in their back line that need urgent addressing.

Under head coach Hernan Cristante, Puebla will be hoping to shake off their poor run and put up a stronger fight against Necaxa.

Puebla Key Players

Puebla will depend heavily on their key players to uplift their form against Necaxa. Leading the charge is Ricardo Marin, their top scorer with 2 goals and an essential figure in their attacking unit. Midfielders Alejandro Organista and Ariel Gamarra also play pivotal roles in orchestrating the gameplay and supporting both defence and attack.

Key individual battles to watch include Marin against Necaxa’s defensive duo of Tomas Jacob and Alexis Pena. How well Marin can breach their defence could very well determine Puebla’s chances of scoring.

Expected lineup for Puebla:

• Goalkeeper: Julio Gonzalez
• Defenders: Jesus Rivas, Eduardo Navarro, Efrain Orona, Juan Fedorco, Fernando Monárrez
• Midfielders: Alejandro Organista, Ariel Gamarra, Nicolas Diaz, Emiliano Gomez
• Forward: Esteban Lozano

Coach Hernan Cristante will be banking on these crucial players to deliver and possibly snatch some points away from home.

Puebla Suspensions & Injuries

Puebla is grappling with several significant injuries that could affect their performance against Necaxa. Key players like Fernando Aristeguieta, Lucas Cavallini, and Edgar Guerra are sidelined with various injuries.

• Fernando Aristeguieta: Broken foot, return unknown.
• Lucas Cavallini: Cruciate ligament injury, potential return in late March 2026.
• Edgar Guerra: Knock injury, doubtful for the match.

The absence of key attacking options such as Aristeguieta and Cavallini severely limits Puebla’s firepower upfront. Additionally, Guerra’s doubtful status adds to their woes, reducing their bench strength. Coach Hernan Cristante will need to find effective replacements and adjust his tactics to cope with these critical absences.

Puebla Tactics and Formation

Puebla Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected to line up in a 5-4-1 formation
• Key Forward: Esteban Lozano
• Midfield Core: Alejandro Organista, Ariel Gamarra, Nicolas Diaz, Emiliano Gomez
• Defensive Line: Jesus Rivas, Eduardo Navarro, Efrain Orona, Juan Fedorco, Fernando Monárrez
• Notable Strategy: Focus on a compact defensive setup and quick counter-attacks

Under the direction of coach Hernan Cristante, Puebla is likely to stick with a conservative 5-4-1 formation. This setup focuses on strong defensive solidity while looking to exploit spaces on the counter with the pace and dribbling skills of players like Emiliano Gomez.

Key to this strategy will be Esteban Lozano, who will function as the lone striker, supported by runs from midfielders such as Ariel Gamarra. Despite their recent defensive frailties, this formation aims to crowd the defensive third, making it harder for opponents to penetrate and providing opportunities to counter swiftly.

Necaxa vs Puebla Head-to-Head Statistics

Looking at their recent encounters, Necaxa holds a clear advantage over Puebla in their last five meetings:

• Puebla 0-1 Necaxa (19 April 2025, Liga MX Clausura)
• Necaxa 4-1 Puebla (13 July 2024, Liga MX Apertura)
• Puebla 1-2 Necaxa (20 January 2024, Liga MX Clausura)
• Necaxa 1-2 Puebla (8 October 2023, Liga MX Apertura)
• Necaxa 1-1 Puebla (15 April 2023, Liga MX Clausura)

Head-to-Head Summary:

• Necaxa Wins: 3
• Puebla Wins: 1
• Draws: 1

Necaxa’s recent 1-0 win in April 2025 and their dominant 4-1 victory in July 2024 showcase their upper hand in this fixture. Despite the occasional slip-up, Necaxa has consistently outperformed Puebla, adding to their psychological edge heading into this match.

Odds accurate as of 18.09.2025 02:04, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.