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american-football | Friday, December 15, 2023 10:06 AM
Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys Picks: December 17th Preview, Betting Odds and NFL Picks
Joshua Jones
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There are several games with huge playoff implications this week, but none bigger than Sunday evening’s showdown in Buffalo, as the Bills welcome the Dallas Cowboys to Orchard Park.
Our American Football expert Joshua Jones has his best value pick for the Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys game and gives the latest value betting picks & predictions, but if you want more from our experts, check out our Expert Insights section.
- Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Pick: Tony Pollard Over 3.5 Receptions
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
- Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Picks & Prediction
- Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Game Info
- Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines
- Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Trends
- Buffalo Bills Stats & Form
- Dallas Cowboys Stats & Form
- Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Where to Watch
- Safer Gambling
Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Picks
Last Sunday could not have gone any better for the Dallas Cowboys (10-3) who dispatched divisional opponents Philadelphia with relative ease, putting up over 30 points for the fifth consecutive game and not allowing an offensive touchdown for the 3rd time this season.
They’ve been putting on an offensive clinic in the last few weeks with Dak Prescott playing at an MVP-calibre level but it was the defence that balled out against the Eagles, forcing three fumbles and allowing just one Red Zone trip.
The Buffalo Bills (7-6) can probably consider themselves rather lucky that the Kansas City Chiefs can’t stop getting in their own way, meaning they were able to escape Arrowhead with a 20-17 victory last Sunday.
Kadarius Toney, oft the thorn in Patrick Mahomes’ side this year, saw his own touchdown ruled out for being about eight yards offside – wiping out one of the plays of the year from Travis Kelce – and the Buffalo defence held out to force Downs and call game.
The Bills defence certainly hasn’t always had it their way though, especially not against opposing running backs. Whilst they allow around a league average of 85.8 yards per game to opposing backs, their real weakness comes from pass-catchers out of the backfield and it’s been a thorn in their side all year.
Buffalo allows the 4th-highest yards and receptions per game to opposing RBs at 46.6 and 5.62 respectively, with their pass-rush forcing lots of screens and dump-offs.
Pollard has faced four other sides ranked in the Top 10 for opponent RB receptions per game and has excelled against all of them. In five games against the Chargers (2nd), 49ers (6th), Jets (9th), and Eagles (10th), Pollard averages 5.4 receptions per game – a 46% increase on his season average of 3.7 per game.
Odds available as of December 14th 2023. Odds may now differ.
Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Game Info
- Date: Sunday, December 17th, 2023
- Time: 21:25PM (UK time)
- Venue: Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, New York, USA
Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines
| Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 Odds | Moneyline | Over/Under 50.5 | Handicap -/+2.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 1.74 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2.15 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Trends
- The Dallas Cowboys are 9-4-0 ATS this season, the best mark in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills are just 5-8-0 ATS this year.
- The Cowboys are 4-1-0 ATS since Week 10.
- The Bills are 5-1-0 to the under since Week 8.
- The Bills are 7-6-0 on the year, but have gone 5-2-0 at home.
Buffalo Bills Stats & Form
The Bills have been wildly unpredictable so far in 2023 and were just a whisker away from being 6-7 and staring down the barrel of a first year without playoff football since 2018.
Travis Kelce’s lateral to set up a Kadarius Toney score late in the fourth quarter on Sunday was called back for offside on Toney himself, and the Bills escaped Arrowhead with a 20-17 win.
As it is they are now 7-6 and, with Miami’s loss to Tennessee on Monday Night Football, have an outside chance of still winning the AFC East and securing a home game in the postseason.
They are best odds 5.00 to jump the Dolphins into a divisional title, an intriguing 10.00 to win the AFC Championship, and 21.00 to go all the way and win their first ever Super Bowl – having twice been denied by the Cowboys in the 1990s.
Dallas Cowboys Stats & Form
The Cowboys come into this one as the league’s form side, having dispatched of bitter rivals the Philadelphia Eagles 33-13 on Sunday Night Football last week.
Their defence allowed no offensive touchdowns in that game, holding the Philadelphia offence to just six total points while forcing three fumbles
Dak Prescott added another 271 yards and two passing touchdowns to what has been an impressive season for him, and he continues on the best year of his career so far – moving into 2.80 favourite to win league MVP.
After moving to 10-3, prices have unsurprisingly shortened on Dallas to see postseason success. They are a best-price 3.40 (previously 4.80) to leapfrog the Eagles into winning the NFC East, 5.00 to go on to win the NFC Conference, but still available at 9.0 to make it a first Super Bowl since 1995.
Buffalo Bills v Dallas Cowboys Where to Watch
This game has been selected for live coverage by Sky Sports in the UK, airing at 21:25 on the Sky Sports NFL Channel.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
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