Super Bowl 56 Bet Builder: Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals
Heading into the 2021 NFL season, bookmakers had the odds of a Rams vs Bengals Super Bowl set at the lofty price of 801.0.
Unlike Cincinnati, the Rams were among the favourites to claim the Lombardi Trophy. At odds of 8.0, the Rams were tied for second with Green Bay behind the favourites, defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers at odds of 4.0 to win the NFC.
Meanwhile the Bengals were available at odds of 101.0 to win the AFC, odds that saw them rated alongside the Jets and Jaguars with only the Texans at longer odds to represent the conference in Super Bowl 56. The Bengals would win 10 games through the regular season, while the Jets, Jags and Texans would combine for just 11.
At odds of 15.0 to win the Super Bowl at season kickoff, many saw value in a Rams unit that upgraded at quarterback with the addition of Matthew Stafford, while the young Bengals led by second year quarterback Joe Burrow were available at odds of 176.0.
Rams fans know well what it’s like to be an unlikely Super Bowl representative. The Rams of the St.Louis variety were at odds of 251.0 to win Super Bowl 34 entering the 1999 NFL season. Six months later they were crowned champions adored as The Greatest Show on Turf. Bengals fans will be hoping for a similar fairytale.
Super Bowl 56 Odds: Rams Favoured by 4.5 points
|Los Angeles Rams||1.47||-4.5 points|
|Cincinnati Bengals||2.75||+4.5 points|
Odds as at 2pm February 13th 2022. Odds may now differ.
The Rams enter their latest Super Bowl appearance as 4.5 point favourites. The line opened at 4, shifted half a point to 3.5, then out to 4.5, before settling back at the 4 entering the weekend. Now 12 hours out from kickoff, the Rams are once again favoured by 4.5 points.
At odds of 1.47, the bookmakers have Los Angeles as roughly a 68% chance of winning the game, while the Bengals are available at odds of 2.75. The points total is set at 48.5 points after opening at 49.5 points.
At time of writing 57% of line bets have been for the Rams, with 74% of the money going on the Rams. This suggests bets on the Rams at -4.5 points outweigh bets on the Bengals +4.5 by a weight of 1.30 to 0.60. Or in other words, Rams handicap wagers are seeing over twice the investment per bet than the Bengals.
We see a different picture when we look at the moneyline. 71% of moneyline wagers have been on the Rams with 59% of moneyline money favouring the Rams. This suggests the larger moneyline bets have come for Cincinnati at odds of 2.75. Bengals moneyline bets currently out weigh Rams wagers by a scale of 1.41 to 0.83.
In terms of the points total 65% of bets have been for the over while 69% of the money has been for the under. There is clearly a smart money play here on the under, with under bets out weighing over bets by a whopping 1.97 to 0.48. In other words, while two thirds of bets have been for the over, as far as stakes go, under bets have been roughly four times the size.
The market data suggests:
- Small stakes on Rams -4
- Medium stakes on Bengals to win at odds 2.75
- High stakes on under 48.5 points.
bettingexpert Tipsters Super Bowl Best Bets
But where does the bettingexpert community see the value for Super Bowl 56? Let’s take a look.
Two tipsters, jizzbaf and intrepido are taking the Bengals at the +4.5 point handicap while tipster MicronetDominicana is backing Cincinnati to win outright, taking them at odds of 2.94.
Meanwhile tipsters Timetraveler, betmaster696 and HighOnTips are taking the Rams at -4.5,-3.5 and -3 points respectively.
Two tipsters are backing the under, with Abel0907 backing under 50.5 points and lewibvb09 backing under 49.5 points.
You can read each of their analysis on our Super Bowl 56 betting tips page.
Super Bowl 56 Bet Builder: Rams to dominate
Much of the talk this week has surrounded the mismatch between the Rams defensive line and the Bengals offensive line. While many have done their best to mitigate the mismatch stirring a heavy spoonful of ‘Cincinnati will find a way’ into their analysis, I simply do not see it happening.
The Rams defense featuring three likely hall of famers in Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller will wreak havoc on a Bengals offensive line that is one of the worst offensive lines to ever enter a Super Bowl.
The Rams have been staunch against the run this season (equal fifth for yards per rush attempt), keeping opposing offenses in passing situations allowing their defensive front to pin back their ears and tee off. We can expect to see plenty of this come Sunday evening.
The Bengals will struggle to run the ball leaving Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati passing attack to carry the day. This is where the Bengals fairytale comes to an end. The Rams defense will be in Burrow’s face all day long, forcing errors and providing the Rams offence with short fields to work from.
The Bengals will do their best to limit the mismatch on the line with heavy sets to protect Burrow, a quick passing game that should feature running back Joe Mixon and a reliance on Burrow’s ability to avoid the pass rush. This worked for Cincinnati in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. But it’s one thing to do that against a team that ranked 29th in the league for sacks this season (31) and another thing to replicate that against the team that ranked third (50).
Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ time will come. But it’s not this year. I see a low scoring battle, a long day for Joe Burrow and the Bengals offence, with Rams winning by 10 points or more.
Super Bowl 56 Bet Builder
- LA Rams -9.5 points
- Under 48.5 points
- Odell Beckham to score a touchdown
- Ja’Marr Chase under 78.5 receiving yards
- Joe Mixon over 24.5 receiving yards
- Joe Burrow under 279.5 passing yards
- Joe Burrow over 0.5 interceptions
- Under 5.5 total touchdowns scored
Super Bowl 56 Bet Builder Odds: 91.0
Odds at bet365 as at 2pm February 13th 2022. Odds may now differ.