Week 5 NCAA Football Best Bets: Saturday, October 1st
Week 5 NCAA Football Best Bets: Saturday, October 1
Our resident college football expert put on a 2 – 0 performance last weekend, and the plan is to do it all over again for week 5 of the campaign. Ej is offering a pair of best bets to make for this Saturday’s action, as a home dog and a total have passed the test and made the grade.
In this article:
- Kansas Jayhawks vs Iowa State Cyclones Preview
- Kansas Jayhawks vs Iowa State Cyclones Best Bet
- Rice Owls vs UAB Blazers Preview
- Rice Owls vs UAB Blazers Best Bet
Kansas Jayhawks vs Iowa State Cyclones Preview
October 1, 20:30 (UK time)
Kansas isn’t supposed to just come out of the gate with a 5 – 0 record, right? Are you ready for his little tidbit of information? Kansas has not won more than two conference games since 2008, and with a win over West Virginia already earned this game is quite big now for this program.
Hi, I said it’s been 15 years since Kansas has won two Big 12 Conference games, and they play 8 of them every campaign so do the math. That covers a lot of games, and it means they have seen a lot of losses, and maybe that is one of the reasons that the line setters are disrespecting Kansas again this weekend.
The Jayhawks are getting the field goal on the handicap spread and there is no way I am just disregarding what they have accomplished to this point and giving up on them now. Memorial Stadium is going to be jam-packed and we might find out what 45,000+ fans on the field looks like if the Jayhawks pull off this upset in Lawrence.
The Cyclones have kicked the Hawks’ butts to the tune of 7 straight wins by an average of 28 points, and I highly doubt that anyone that was here last season forgot the 38 – 0 halftime score from last year’s affair in Ames.
It would be easy to point you to the Iowa State defensive rankings this year, but let’s keep in mind that bouts with SE Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio account for those stats. I barely pay attention to rankings even though most people see them mentioned in previews so it looks like we know what we’re talking about. Considering that to this point almost major program has played 4 non-conference games against varying quality opponents, they are just numbers that look cute on paper.
Jalon Daniels only made 3 starts last year, but his off-season preparation for this earned him the starting job under center for 2nd-year coach Leipold. Daniels has 11 TD passes to his credit through 4 games with only one INT against him
This is what I mean about stats being meaningless sometimes… Kansas has only turned the ball over an impressive 3 times, but it is only good enough to see them back at 76th in the nation. With ball control being at the full attention of the offense, Kansas has enjoyed a ton of success and I expect the home crowd to lift them to a win.
If the line setters want to give me the field goal to put in my pocket just in case, then I complain none!
Kansas Jayhawks vs Iowa State Cyclones Best Bet
Give me that home dog and the field goal, because Kansas might finally snap that nasty 15-year run of Big 12 failure I mentioned above.
- Selection: Kansas +3
- Best odds: 1.91 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Rice Owls vs UAB Blazers Preview
October 2, 00:30 (UK time)
The line setters have not adjusted yet, and we are about to take advantage of this total as a result. If you look over the UAB totals, you see that all 3 unders have hit the board but it’s only because the lines have been set too high. UAB dismantled Alabama A&M, 59 – 0, but the total was over 60 so the under was the play to make that day. We are dealing with a 51.5 here, and UAB would be 2 – 1 to the Over if that was the number being offered as it is here. Things like that are always going to catch my eye because I think UAB can score 34 points on Rice this weekend. The Owls will also have success against the Blazers’ defense although Bill Clark has always gotten his defenses to play well over the last 6 years. I think the defense will have a chance to lend a hand to the scoring because of the Rice QB and his inability to keep his team on the field.
Tj McMahon has accumulated 8 TD passes through the first 4 games of the campaign, but he is also completing entirely too many passes to the other guys. Not many teams survive 7 interceptions with turnovers in the running game to boot, and Rice is simply a mess on offense. Some could say that we don’t know what we’re getting with McMahon’s inability to control the ball, but turnovers lead to points. The Blazers’ defense will put their offense in some good field position situations and they might just have a pick-6 to their credit along the way.
Ari Broussard has a nose for the end zone, as he and McMahon account for all 7 of the scores on the ground. Broussard already has 60 carries and 6 touches to pay dirt, but the Blazers are no strangers to running th eball either.
UAB is going to run the ball, and then they’ll run the ball again, and after that, they will probably hand the ball off a few times. The Blazers rank 6th in the nation averaging 253.3 rushing yards an outing, and DeWayne McBride is getting the lion’s share of carries. McBride already has 400 rushing yards and he is averaging 8.3 yards per carry through 4 games. McBride and Jermaine Brown Jr. have toted the rock a combined 86 times earning 647 yards with 7 scoots into the end zone between them.
Don’t think that running the ball can lead to unders because of the clock constantly running. It won’t be running as much as the scoreboard will be, so enjoy this over 51.5. I see a 34 – 31 game transpiring with points and turnovers creating a wealth of points for us to take advantage of.
Rice Owls vs UAB Blazers Best Bet
I see more than 60 points happening, so there is no reason to expect anything less. UAB will officially hit their first over of the campaign this weekend, but we know they can topple this kind of number anyway.
- Selection: Over 51.5
- Best odds: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as of 11:00 am September 29th, 2022. Odds may now differ.