Football | Monday, June 5, 2023 1:34 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, June 6, 2023 12:50 PM)

2022/23 Big Leagues Betting Awards 2023: Which Club Was the Most Profitable to Back?

IMAGO / Box to Box Pictures

Andrew Brocker

bettingexpert Educational and Data Content Editor

Last weekend saw the final rounds of major domestic football across Europe. August, please hurry!

But before we close out for the 2022/23 season, let’s take a look back.

In this article, I will look at the performance of clubs across seven of the biggest football leagues in Europe:

English Premier League
German Bundesliga
Italian Serie A
Spain La Liga
France Ligue Un
Dutch Eredivisie
Portugal Liga

Which clubs were the best to bet on? Which were the best to oppose? Which clubs exceeded bookmaker expectations?

Welcome to the European Football Betting Awards for 2022/23.

Note: Odds used in this analysis are average odds adjusted to a margin of 5%. Clubs are ranked based on performance at even stakes i.e profit or loss based on betting at single units on each outcome.

In this article:

Match Result 1X2 Market

Best Clubs to Back to Win:

1st – Chaves (Port. Liga)
2nd – Clermont (Ligue Un)
3rd – Brentford (Premier League)

Chaves were the number one team to back in the 1X2 market this season across our seven leagues of analysis. The Portuguese club finished in 7th place in Liga, with 12 victories from 34 matches.

If you had bet £10 on Chaves to win each match this season, you would have seen a profit of £308.80 thanks primarily to their home victory over Benfica at odds 12.15 and a win away at Sporting Lisbon, entering the match at odds of18.00.

Top 7 Leagues Club 1X2 Win Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Matches	Wins	Win P/L	ROI%
1	Chaves	Port. Liga	34	12	+30.88	90.8%
2	Clermont	Ligue Un	38	17	+26.86	70.7%
3	Brentford	Premier League	38	15	+23.47	61.8%
4	Lorient	Ligue Un	38	15	+19.19	50.5%
5	Augsburg	Bundesliga	34	9	+15.33	45.1%
6	Lazio	Serie A	38	22	+15.30	40.3%
7	Aston Villa	Premier League	38	18	+12.26	32.3%
8	Arouca	Port. Liga	34	15	+11.95	35.2%
9	Mallorca	La Liga	38	14	+11.91	31.3%
10	Lens	Ligue Un	38	25	+11.31	29.8%

Honorable Mentions

Clermont were number two in the rankings. The French club won 17 of their 38 matches, returning £10 backers a profit of £268.60 with home wins over Rennes at odds 4.25 and Lyon at 3.85, while away from home Clermont saw a string over upsets this season, with road wins at PSG at odds 8.05, Lyon at odds 5.75, Nice at odds 5.25 and Toulouse at odds 5.40.

Brentford ranked third in 1X2 betting this season with a return of £234.70 for those willing to back them £10 a match. The Premier League club finished 9th with 15 wins including home wins over Liverpool at odds of 6.10 and Manchester Utd at odds 4.55, while away from home Brentford claimed one of the biggest upsets of the season, a win at Manchester City at odds of 19.25 along side wins at Chelsea (4.45) and Tottenham (3.60).

Best Club to Back 1X2 from each league 2022/23

League	Club	Matches	Wins	Win P/L
Premier League	Brentford	38	15	+23.47
Ligue 1	Clermont	38	17	+26.86
Bundesliga	Augsburg	34	9	+15.33
Serie A	Lazio	38	22	+15.30
Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	34	17	+8.69
Port. Liga	Chaves	34	12	+30.88
La Liga	Mallorca	38	14	+11.91

Best Clubs To Bet Against:

1st – Inter Milan (Serie A)
2nd – Chelsea (Premier League)
3rd – Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)

Considering they reached the Champions League final, it might be quite a shock to see Inter Milan topping the list of teams most profitable to bet against this season.

But had you bet £10 on Inter to lose each of their Serie A matches this season, you would have seen a profit of £226.55. Their campaign saw home losses to Empoli at odds 11.40 and Monza at odds 8.10 while away from home Inter lost to Spezia at odds 8.10 and Bologna at odds 5.05.

Top 7 Leagues Club 1X2 Loss Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Matches	LOSSES	LOSS P/L	ROI%
1	Inter Milan	Serie A	38	12	+22.66	59.6%
2	Chelsea	Premier League	38	16	+20.23	53.2%
3	Ath Bilbao	La Liga	38	15	+19.25	50.7%
4	Cambuur	Eredivisie	34	25	+18.24	53.6%
5	Groningen	Eredivisie	34	24	+15.80	46.5%
6	Angers	Ligue Un	38	28	+15.52	40.8%
7	AC Ajaccio	Ligue Un	38	26	+14.35	37.8%
8	Southampton	Premier League	38	25	+12.92	34.0%
9	Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga	34	12	+12.74	37.5%
10	Sporting Lisbon	Port. Liga	34	6	+12.41	36.5%

Dishonorable Mentions

No surprises to see Chelsea near the top of the list of best teams to bet against this season. If you had bet £10 on Chelsea to loses every Premier League match they played, you would have received a profit of £202.34. Chelsea lost at home to Southampton at odds 8.15, Aston Villa at odds 5.95 and Brentford at odds 4.45. On the road, Chelsea suffered shock losses at Leeds (odds 6.00), Southampton (odds 5.15) and Wolverhampton (odds 5.00).

Athletic Bilbao closes out the top three of best teams to bet against in the 1X2 market this season. Those willing to bet £10 against Athletic in each La Liga match this season earned a profit of £192.50. Bilbao lost at home to Elche at odds 7.85, Espanyol at odds 6.95, Betis at odds 6.00 and Girona at odds 5.60.

Best Club to Bet Against 1X2 from each league 2022/23

League	Club	Matches	Losses	Loss P/L
Premier League	Chelsea	38	16	+20.23
Ligue 1	Angers	38	28	+15.52
Bundesliga	Bayer Leverkusen	34	12	+12.74
Serie A	Inter Milan	38	12	+22.66
Eredivisie	Cambuur	34	25	+18.24
Port. Liga	Sporting Lisbon	34	6	+12.41
La Liga	Ath Bilbao	38	15	+19.25

Other 1X2 Awards:

Best Club to Back at Home 1X2: Nottingham Forest, Premier League (+15.95)
Best Club to Bet Against at Home 1X2: Athletic Bilbao, La Liga (+20.43)
Best Club to Back Away 1X2: Chaves, Primeira (+20.09)
Best Club to Bet Against Away 1X2: Liverpool, Premier League (+18.73)
Best Club to Back for the Draw 1X2: Ajax, Eredivisie (+25.95)
Best Club to Back for the Draw at Home 1X2: Troyes, Ligue Un (+27.37)
Best Club to Back for the Draw Away 1X2: Salernitana, Serie A (+20.23)

Asian Handicap Market

Best Club to Back on the Asian Handicap:

1st – Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2nd – Fulham (Premier League)
3rd – Braga (Primeira)

Dutch side Sparta Rotterdam were the best club in our seven leagues of analysis to back on the Asian handicap. Sparta compiled a dominant record of 24-10 against the handicap this season, a win rate of 70.6% returning £10 backers a profit of £129.45.

It was the highest Asian handicap return for any club in our seven leagues of analysis since Ligue Un club Nice returned £149.68 for £10 backers from a 72.4% win rate in 2016/17.

Top 7 Leagues Asian Handicap Win Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Matches	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	AH Win P/L
1	Sparta Rotterdam	Eredivisie	34	24	10	70.6%	+12.95
2	Fulham	Premier League	38	25	13	65.8%	+9.38
3	Braga	Port. Liga	34	22	12	64.7%	+8.90
4	Clermont	Ligue Un	38	24.5	13.5	64.5%	+8.84
5	Brentford	Premier League	38	24	14	63.2%	+8.84
6	Arouca	Port. Liga	34	22	12	64.7%	+8.69
7	Salernitana	Serie A	38	24.25	13.75	63.8%	+8.49
8	Napoli	Serie A	38	23.75	14.25	62.5%	+8.28
9	Betis	La Liga	38	23.75	14.25	62.5%	+8.02
10	Brest	Ligue Un	38	23.25	14.75	61.2%	+7.21

Honorable Mentions

Premier League club Fulham were ranked second for Asian handicap betting this season, with a 25-13 record against the line and delivering a profit of £93.84 for £10 bettors. There were a number of clubs who pressed for third place Braga marginally beating out Clermont, Brentford and Arouca.

Best Club to Back Asian handicap from each league 2022/23

League	Club	Matches	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	AH Loss P/L
Premier League	Fulham	38	25	13	65.8%	+9.38
Ligue 1	Clermont	38	24.5	13.5	64.5%	+8.84
Bundesliga	Dortmund	34	20.5	13.5	60.3%	+5.97
Serie A	Salernitana	38	24.25	13.75	63.8%	+8.49
Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	34	24	10	70.6%	+12.95
Port. Liga	Braga	34	22	12	64.7%	+8.90
La Liga	Betis	38	23.75	14.25	62.5%	+8.02

Best Club to Bet Against on the Asian Handicap: Chelsea

Chelsea were the best team to bet against in the Asian handicap market across our seven leagues of analysis. Chelsea compiled a 12.25 and 25.75 record against the line this season, a win rate of just 32.2%. If you had bet £10 on their opposition in each match, you would have received a profit of £115.93.

Top 7 Leagues Club Asian Handicap Loss Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Matches	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	AH Loss P/L
1	Chelsea	Premier League	38	12.25	25.75	32.2%	+11.59
2	AC Ajaccio	Ligue Un	38	13	25	34.2%	+11.53
3	Maritimo	Port. Liga	34	10.5	23.5	30.9%	+11.29
4	Santa Clara	Port. Liga	34	11	23	32.4%	+11.17
5	Southampton	Premier League	38	13	25	34.2%	+10.59
6	Cambuur	Eredivisie	34	11.5	22.5	33.8%	+9.83
7	Groningen	Eredivisie	34	11.5	22.5	33.8%	+9.45
8	Elche	La Liga	38	14	24	36.8%	+9.18
9	Pacos Ferreira	Port. Liga	34	12.25	21.75	36.0%	+8.72
10	FC Emmen	Eredivisie	34	12.25	21.75	36.0%	+8.66

Dishonorable Mentions

French club AC Ajaccio were in second place, with a win rate of just 34.2%, delivering £10 bettors willing to oppose them week on week a profit across the season of £115.28, while Portuguese club Maritimo compiled a woeful 10.5 and 23.5 record against the handicap this season, a win rate of just 30.9%, providing the naysayers a profit of £112.88 at £10 stakes.

Best Club to Bet Against Asian Handicap from each league 2022/23

League	Club	Matches	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	AH Loss P/L
Premier League	Chelsea	38	12.25	25.75	32.2%	+11.59
Ligue 1	AC Ajaccio	38	13	25	34.2%	+11.53
Bundesliga	Bayern Munich	34	13.25	20.75	39.0%	+7.06
Serie A	Sampdoria	38	13.75	24.25	36.2%	+8.05
Eredivisie	Cambuur	34	11.5	22.5	33.8%	+9.83
Port. Liga	Maritimo	34	10.5	23.5	30.9%	+11.29
La Liga	Elche	38	14	24	36.8%	+9.18

Other Asian Handicap Awards:

Best Club to Back at Home AH: Twente, Eredivisie (+9.52)
Best Club to Bet Against at Home AH: Cambuur, Eredivisie (+9.38)
Best Club to Back Away AH: Napoli, Serie A (+8.57)
Best Club to Bet Against Away AH: Maritimo, Port Liga (+8.17)

Over Under 2.5 Goals Market

Best Club to Back Over 2.5 Goals:

1st – Espanyol (La Liga)
2nd – Angers (Ligue Un)
3rd – Boavista (Port. Liga)

Spanish club Espanyol were the number one club to back for Over 2.5 goals this season, well clear of second placed Angers. A total of 25 of Espanyol’s 38 matches this season saw at least 3 goals scored, returning a profit of £162.84 for those backing Over 2.5 in each match at £10 stakes.

Top 7 Leagues Club Over 2.5 Goals Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Over 2.5 %	Undr 2.5 %	O 2.5 P/L
1	Espanol	La Liga	25	13	65.8%	34.2%	+16.28
2	Angers	Ligue Un	26	12	68.4%	31.6%	+10.10
3	Boavista	Port. Liga	20	14	58.8%	41.2%	+9.96
4	Vallecano	La Liga	22	16	57.9%	42.1%	+9.20
5	Girona	Serie A	22	16	57.9%	42.1%	+8.47
6	Fulham	Premier League	25	13	65.8%	34.2%	+8.10
7	Sporting Lisbon	Port. Liga	24	10	70.6%	29.4%	+7.99
8	AC Ajaccio	Ligue Un	20	18	52.6%	47.4%	+7.25
9	Brighton	Premier League	25	13	65.8%	34.2%	+6.97
10	Maritimo	Port. Liga	20	14	58.8%	41.2%	+6.24

Best Club to Back Under 2.5 Goals:

1st – Empoli (Serie A)
2nd – Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
3rd – Arouca (Port. Liga)

Italian club Empoli were the best team to back for Under 2.5 goals this season, with 24 of their 38 Serie A matches finishing with 2 goals or fewer. If you had bet £10 on Under 2.5 goals in each Empoli match, you would have earned a profit of £111.26.

Top 7 Leagues Club Under 2.5 Goals Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Matches	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Over 2.5 %	Undr 2.5 %	U 2.5 P/L
1	Empoli	Serie A	38	14	24	36.8%	63.2%	+11.13
2	Bayern Munich	Bundesliga	34	22	12	64.7%	35.3%	+10.42
3	Arouca	Port. Liga	34	9	25	26.5%	73.5%	+10.28
4	Nijmegen	Eredivisie	34	14	20	41.2%	58.8%	+8.46
5	Cadiz	La Liga	38	11	27	28.9%	71.1%	+7.92
6	Portimonense	Port. Liga	34	12	22	35.3%	64.7%	+7.18
7	Lecce	Serie A	38	12	26	31.6%	68.4%	+7.10
8	Gil Vicente	Port. Liga	34	14	20	41.2%	58.8%	+6.93
9	Estoril	Port. Liga	34	12	22	35.3%	64.7%	+6.49
10	Chaves	Port. Liga	34	12	22	35.3%	64.7%	+6.41

Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals

Let’s finish things off with a look at which clubs exceeded bookmaker expectations the most in terms of real goals versus expected goals.

What are bookmaker expected goals (or BxG as I like to refer to it)?

Essentially BxG are the expected goals for each match based on pre-match odds. For example, if the expected goal total is 3 goals and the home team is expected to win by half a goal, the BxG for the home club will be 1.75 goals, and 1.25 goals for the away club. Of course, there’s a little more that goes into the actual calculation of BxG, but this is the essential premise.

Greatest Differential Real Goal Difference vs BxG Goal Difference:

1st – Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
2nd – Brentford (Premier League)
3rd – Fulham (Premier League)

Top 7 Leagues Club Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Matches	GD	BxGD	BxG-GD Diff
1	Sparta Rotterdam	Eredivisie	34	23	-8.54	+31.54
2	Brentford	Premier League	38	12	-9.21	+21.21
3	Fulham	Premier League	38	2	-19.16	+21.16
4	Newcastle	Premier League	38	35	15.50	+19.50
5	Montpellier	Ligue Un	38	3	-14.97	+17.97
6	Twente	Eredivisie	34	39	21.63	+17.37
7	Lens	Ligue Un	38	39	21.94	+17.06
8	Lazio	Serie A	38	30	13.75	+16.25
9	Braga	Port. Liga	34	45	28.86	+16.14
10	Lorient	Ligue Un	38	-1	-16.43	+15.43

Dutch club Sparta Rotterdam were the number one team when it comes to real goals vs bookmaker expected goals this season. Through their 34 Eredivisie matches this season, bookmakers had them at an expected goal difference of -8.54 goals, while their real goal difference was +23, a differential of +31.54 goals.

No club even came close to Sparta this season. Second placed Brentford enjoyed a real goal difference vs BxG goal difference of +21.21, while Fulham finished in third place +21.16 goals the better.

Top 7 Leagues Club Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals for each league 2022/23

League	Club	Matches	GD	BxGD	BxG-GF Diff
Premier League	Brentford	38	12	-9.206	+21.21
Ligue 1	Montpellier	38	3	-14.965	+17.97
Bundesliga	Dortmund	34	39	25.818	+13.18
Serie A	Lazio	38	30	13.753	+16.25
Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	34	23	-8.537	+31.54
Primeira	Braga	34	45	28.864	+16.14
La Liga	Atl. Madrid	38	37	24.13	+12.87

Worst Real Difference vs BxG Goal Difference:

1st – AC Ajaccio (Ligue Un)
2nd – Chelsea (Premier League)
3rd – Groningen (Eredivisie)

Top 7 Leagues Club Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals 2022/23

Rank	Club	League	Matches	GD	BxGD	BxG-GD Diff
1	AC Ajaccio	Ligue Un	38	-51	-21.745	-29.255
2	Chelsea	Premier League	38	-9	16.59	-25.59
3	Groningen	Eredivisie	34	-44	-19.435	-24.565
4	Angers	Ligue Un	38	-48	-28.256	-19.744
5	Sampdoria	Serie A	38	-47	-28.48	-18.52
6	Cambuur	Eredivisie	34	-43	-26.225	-16.775
7	Santa Clara	Port Liga	34	-32	-16.222	-15.778
8	FC Emmen	Eredivisie	34	-32	-16.309	-15.691
9	Verona	Serie A	38	-28	-13.245	-14.755
10	Pacos Ferreira	Port Liga	34	-36	-21.35	-14.65

French club AC Ajaccio were the worst performed against bookmaker expectations this season across our seven leagues of analysis. Bookmakers had Ajaccio at -21.75 expected goal difference this season while the club compiled a real goal difference of -51 goals, a differential of -29.25 goals.

Chelsea were in second place with a differential of -25.59 goals while Dutch club Groningen were in third place with a -24.57 goal differential.

Top 7 Leagues Club Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals for each league 2022/23

League	Club	Matches	GD	BxGD	BxG-GF Diff
Premier League	Chelsea	38	-9	16.59	-25.59
Ligue 1	AC Ajaccio	38	-51	-21.745	-29.255
Bundesliga	Schalke	34	-36	-22.746	-13.254
Serie A	Sampdoria	38	-47	-28.48	-18.52
Eredivisie	Groningen	34	-44	-19.435	-24.565
Primeira	Santa Clara	34	-32	-16.222	-15.778
La Liga	Ath Bilbao	38	4	15.87	-11.87

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LATEST COMMENTS

luciooborba 16 Jun 2023 | 00:10

Muito legal a abordagem que chamas de BxGD, meu calculo é um pouco diferente, utilizo uma distribuição inversa de poisson e eu chamo de xGB para mandante e xGAB para visitante....