football | Tuesday, July 26, 2022 1:19 PM

2022/23 Championship Season Betting Preview: Longshot, Value Pick, Teams to Avoid

Sam Ingram

Ante-post selections have their pitfalls as teams fall out of form, managers become discarded assets, and the dark horses ultimately flop to monotonous mid-table finishes. In the hope all of the above shines kindly on us for one season only, this article will highlight the best outright selections the Championship offers.

In this article:

Championship 2022/23 Season Preview
Championship 2022/23 Most Overvalued Teams
Championship 2022/23 Most Undervalued Teams
Championship 2022/23 Outright Lock Bet
Championship 2022/23 Outright Value Pick
Championship 2022/23 Longshot

All odds quoted are the best odds available as of 12:30 on 26th July 2022. Odds may now differ.

The bettingexpert News 2022/23 Championship Season Betting Preview

Rotherham, Wigan and Sunderland anchor as the fresh faces in the upcoming instalment of The Championship. Watford, Norwich, and Burnley drop out of the top flight to add a plethora of quality to the division. It’s a season that promises so much already, with an honest scrap likely at both ends.

Vincent Kompany, John Eustace, and Jon Dahl Tomasson arrive as the newest imports to dugouts up and down the country. Acun Ilıcalı’s Turkish revolution is well underway in Hull, adding a taste of foreign shores in Yorkshire.

No matter which club takes your fancy for the season ahead, there’s certainly enough to sink our teeth into and grind out a value selection or two before a ball is kicked in anger.

Most Overvalued Teams in the Championship 2022/23

Here you’ll find three outright picks to swerve. Ante-post markets will often be crammed with value, but there will be a few must-ignores there, too. The happenings over the summer are usually a good indicator of who to back and who to avoid like the plague. Here are some picks that should be avoided.

Huddersfield

Carlos Corberan’s exit sheds light on the reasoning behind avoiding an outright punt on Huddersfield. Whether it was a lack of funds or ambition or both, Corberan vacated with only a few weeks until the start of the 2022/23 season.

Lewis O’Brien and Harry Toffolo followed, adding to an exodus of players leaving the John Smith’s Stadium. The departures and the loss of Corberan in the dugout certainly make The Terriers weaker on paper, with six of the Wembley playoffs side now moved out of the club, indicating that avoiding relegation should be their main concern this season. They’re at around 2.10 for a top-half finish which I’d avoid.

Blackburn Rovers

Jon Dahl Tomasson’s first season managing in the Championship is backed up by a lack of movement in the transfer market. At the end of the last campaign, Rovers won just 4/17, two of which were dead rubbers against Derby and Birmingham.

Ben Brereton-Díaz continues to flirt with an exit, whilst new players are needed to attempt to get anywhere near their eight-placed finish in the previous term. At as short as 1.53 at Unibet for a top-half finish, it’s undoubtedly one to ignore at those prices.

Norwich

The Canaries have made a name for themselves as the ultimate modern-day yo-yo club and have proven to be very good at it. Promotion will be the aim, competing with a packed cohort of clubs more than capable of an assault on the playoffs.

After a dismal campaign in the Premier League, Norwich have moved to bring in Gabriel Sara from São Paulo for just shy of £10 million. But, of course, a move such as Sara’s will raise doubts – can he mix it in the Championship? Will he find his feet in time to make an impact? Time will tell. The addition of Isaac Hayden on loan from Newcastle completes the transfer activity at Carrow Road.

In truth, it’s a little uninspiring considering how poor Norwich were at times last season. In fairness, it’s a much tougher league, though a few more incomings were expected to liven up what was often a drab showing in 2021/22 from the same bunch of players that will line the dressing room at the end of July.

Dean Smith won only four of 27 matches in the Premier League, racking up a lowly 0.63 points per90 figure. A total that ultimately failed to fend off relegation. The former Villa gaffer should be a pair of safe hands in the Championship, comfortably finishing in the top half in all four of his outings in the division for Brentford, plus a promotion-clinching Aston Villa side.

They’re at around 5.50 to win the Championship title which seems far too short. Norwich should be up there come the end of the Championship season. Nonetheless, to be crowned as league champions next year isn’t something I’d hang my hat on.

Most Undervalued Teams in the Championship 2022/23

Value often comes in the shape of clubs that strengthen and impress during the off-season, offering something different that throws shade on the bookmaker’s initial odds. I may have found three:

Burnley

The Clarets will appear more than once in this article, and that’s solely due to the work that Burnley have done in the transfer market. However, the race for the top 6 will be one with eight or nine clubs firmly believing they have a shot, so this is by no means a banker.

Nevertheless, with the new ownership at Turf Moor trawling the lower leagues and utilising the landscape of the Premier League’s loan market, it’s a new era I can get behind. Kompany and the powers that be are seemingly intent on shifting focus towards young, hungry professionals – a welcome change in tact for onlookers in the North West.

Selection: Burnley Top 6 Finish
Odds: 2.38
Bookmaker: Betway

Bristol City

Luton’s Kal Naismith is the pick of the bunch in terms of incomings in Bristol, offering leadership qualities and a steeliness that strengthens a leaky back line. Additionally, Kane Wilson was drafted in following a successful season in League Two with Forest Green. Two signings that should go some way in improving Bristol City as a defensive unit.

The one concern for Bristol City is a potential over-reliance on Andreas Weimann to stump up a similar goal tally to last season. The Austrian started in all 46 fixtures last season, bagging 22 goals. If the goalmouth action dries up for Weimann, who else will hit 20+ at Ashton Gate?

The 1.83 for Bristol City to reach 55 points with an improved side is one that indeed appears value.

Selection: Bristol City 55+ Points
Odds: 1.83
Bookmaker: SkyBet

Birmingham City

Lee Bowyer’s dismissal 56 days after the final league game says it all. After a season in which Birmingham City were fortunate that other clubs were docked points, the managerial exit should’ve been a swift, calculated decision. Yet, that’s not something associated with the hierarchy at St. Andrews.

John Eustace, recently in the running (and turned down) for the Swansea job, is the new man in the dugout. With the Swans sniffing around Eustace, you can assume his preferred style of play. During his time at Kidderminster Harriers, Eustace’s side’s performances encouraged the nickname, the ‘non-league Barcelona.’ Instilling that kind of philosophy at a club takes time, especially without the correct personnel.

The new gaffer has spoken of wanting to change the culture at Birmingham City. Eustace’s re-energised approach aims to revamp what the club currently conveys on the pitch and the attitudes attached. Regardless, that’s a journey that takes time. In a competitive, gruelling 46-game season, time often sneaks up on you before you can get a leg up.

Selection: Birmingham to be Relegated
Odds: 3.00
Bookmaker: Unibet

The Championship Outright Lock Bet 2022/23

This is my leading ante-post fancy this summer. There has been a major reshuffle at Turf Moor as the curtain lowers on an end of a Sean Dyche-inspired era. New owners are in the door at Burnley, as is Vincent Kompany and his flurry of new recruits.

The incomings have been impressive. Scott Twine, Josh Cullen, Luke McNally and Kompany’s double-barrelled loan signings from Manchester City appear the pick of the bunch. Nevertheless, there has been plenty of outgoings that will be hard to replace, all whilst rumours circulate about Dwight McNeil and other key members of the squad.

Regardless of the goings on at Burnley, it’s difficult to see any of Preston, Blackpool or Wigan getting close to a Clarets side chasing automatic promotion. The bookmakers believe Blackburn Rovers will give Burnley the sternest test, but over at Ewood Park, Jon Dahl Tomasson has an uphill task on his hands. Limited signings and the new coach’s need to acclimatise to his surroundings won’t be straightforward.

If Burnley’s new men can hit the ground running as their talent suggests possible, this selection may be done and dusted by Christmas.

Selection: Burnley Regional Winners – Top North West Club
Odds: 2.10
Provider: bet365

The Championship Outright Value Pick 2022/23

Emmanuel Dennis at 26.00 is a considerable price for top scorer at bet365. The Hornets man is a Premier League talent, and if he stays, expect those odds to shorten significantly in a matter of weeks.

Ten goals in 33 matches was the Nigerian’s tally in the previous campaign. For a striker on foreign soil in a stuttering Watford side, that’s impressive. It’s a selection that I’d recommend taking as an each-way single, offering a decent payout if amongst the top four most prolific in the league.

Now, the expectation all summer has been that Dennis will leave, but where are the suitors? Newcastle are reportedly interested in the 24-year-old, as are a host of other Premier League clubs, but nothing concrete is on the table. It may be a big ‘if’, but if Vicarage Road is his home at the end of the January transfer window, it’s an outright position that should provide an exciting ride.

Selection: Emmanuel Dennis Top Scorer (Each Way 4 places)
Odds: 26.00
Provider: bet365

The Championship Outright Longshot 2022/23

Hull’s new Colombian striker, Óscar Estupiñán, caused Primeira Liga defenders plenty of headaches in Portugal’s top division. Pace, power, and a knack for scoring goals – it’s a recipe to take the Championship by storm. A goal every 146 minutes was what fans of Vitória SC were treated to last campaign. Anything near that figure and the Hull City supporters won’t know what has hit them.

It’s important to be mindful that Estupiñán is part of a new team full of unfamiliar faces in Acun Ilicali’s Tigers uprising in Hull. It could be too much of an ask for the Tigers’ new frontman in an unforgiving, relentlessly-competitive division. Estupiñán shouldn’t be one of the favourites for the golden boot, but his talent makes the 66/1 a questionable price.

Selection: Óscar Estupiñán Top Scorer (Each Way 4 places)
Odds: 67.00
Provider: bet365