football | Wednesday, August 10, 2022 10:36 AM

2022/23 La Liga Season Betting Preview: The Value Picks, Longshots and Teams to Avoid

Tom Winch

The La Liga season is often battled out by the same two or three sides. The race for the 4th spot is often won by a familiar name. However, with some big signings and new managers in charge, the race for 4th will have a few more runners this year. I’ve got my early-season best bets for the outright selections in La Liga.

In this article:

La Liga 2022/2023 Season Preview
La Liga 2022/2023 Most Overvalued Teams
La Liga 2022/2023 Most Undervalued Teams
La Liga 2022/2023 Outright Lock Bet
La Liga 2022/2023 Outright Value Pick
La Liga 2022/2023 Longshot

All odds quoted are the best odds available as at 15:00 on 9th August 2022. Odds may now differ.

The bettingexpert News 2022/2023 La Liga Season Betting Preview

The 2021/2022 La Liga season was won comfortably by Real Madrid who accumulated 86 points across the 38 matches, Barcelona clinched the runner up spot whilst Diego Simeone’s Atletico and Julen Lopetegui’s Sevilla made up the top 4 for the third consecutive season.

Alaves claimed the dreaded 20th place after a dismal away record with Levante finishing in 19th despite scoring 51 goals, the seventh most in the division. Granada were the final side to be relegated and they can only blame themselves, Jorge Molina missed from the spot late on in their final league game, a win meant they were safe but ended the season with a goalless draw.

Almeria, Valladolid and Girona are the new boys on the block this season who’ll be wanting to stick around in the top flight of Spanish football. Valladolid bounced straight back up after being relegated from La Liga in the 2020/2021 season. This is Girona’s first time back since 2019 and La Liga 2 champions, Almeria are amongst the country’s best for the first time since 2015.

Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid are strong contenders alongside Barcelona to lift the title which comes at little surprise with Atletico a fair way behind. No club is nailed on for a relegation spot but there are plenty of sides who may struggle. Karim Benzema has some serious competition in the goal scorer table as Robert Lewandowksi has joined Xavi’s Barcelona. There are plenty of angles to get behind in what should be an interesting campaign in Spain.

Most Overvalued Teams in La Liga 2022/2023

There are a couple of sides who could have a tricky campaign compared to the last, with star players leaving and poor form in the back end of last season they could be worth avoiding in outright bets.

Valencia

Valencia had a poor second half to the season in Spain. They accumulated just 20 points from as many games which saw them finish 9th in the table. They conceded more than any other side in the top 13 which won’t give them much confidence heading into the new season.

Their summer business hasn’t been great by all means either, they’ve sold Goncalo Guedes to Wolves who ended last season as their top scorer with 11 goals. It’s hard to see where they’ll score goals. That will be a big concern for the new boss Gennaro Gattuso who has little experience in top-flight football and hasn’t managed in Spain as of yet.

Sevilla

Despite finishing 4th last season with 70 points, I don’t think Sevilla will repeat the feat this time around. Central defenders Diego Carlos and Jules Koundé started a huge percentage of games together last season. Both have left the club over the last few weeks and will be a big miss.

Again, goals look scarce throughout the squad. They scored 53 times last campaign which was the second least in the top seven. Only one player managed double figures whereas the next highest saw two players bag 6 each with one of those having left the club.

With Sevilla being the best club defensively last season they could definitely be a lot more open at the back with the central defensive partnership departing the club. At 2.37 for a top-4 finish, it’s probably not worth backing at the price.

Most Undervalued Teams in La Liga 2022/2023

Unlike some, I believe a handful of sides could make a statement this season. Key players staying put and some exciting reinforcements added to the squad mean it could be an exciting season for the fans of these clubs.

Betis

Betis are just one of those sides who you never quite know what you’ll get. They won the Copa Del Rey last season and finished 5th in the table, Juanmi impressed in terms of goals. The Spaniard bagged 16 in 33 and is set for another season with the club.

Nabil Fekir can be fantastic on his day, he recorded 14 goal contributions last time out with Borja Iglesias also boasting double figures in goals. Unlike the two sides mentioned before, I believe Betis will be just fine in the goals department.

Defensively they weren’t too bad, conceding 40 in total. Across the last 15 La Liga games, they finished in 4th spot. A top 4 finish is priced around 5.50 which could be worth a punt.

Selection: Betis Top Four Finish
Best Odds: 5.50
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 5/10

Real Sociedad

Alongside Betis, this Real Sociedad side could also have a strong campaign. Alexander Isak and Mikel Oyarzabal have both remained at the club which is a huge bonus. Mohamed-Ali Cho has transferred from Angers in France. The 18-year-old Frenchman is a promising young talent and could be a great move all around.

Sociedad finished sixth last season, they didn’t score or concede many in comparison to most sides in the top half but remained a solid outfit throughout, especially at home where they conceded just nine times in 19 matches.

At 5.50 they are a good price to break into the top four, if they can get Isak, Oyarzabal and Cho firing then it could lead to a successful campaign.

Selection: Real Sociedad Top Four Finish
Best Odds: 5.50
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 5/10

La Liga Outright Lock Bet 2022/2023

Real Madrid walked the league last season in all fairness to them after finishing 13 points ahead of second spot Barcelona. Los Blancos finished the campaign with the best record at home and away, they scored the most goals and conceded the second least.

Gareth Bale, Isco and club legend Marcelo are the most notable names who have departed from the club over the summer. But as is usually the case, Real Madrid have spent rather well and have definitely strengthened the squad.

German international Antonio Rudiger has joined the Spanish champions after impressing at Chelsea. The 29 year old is alongside David Alaba and Eder Militao as the go-to central defenders for the side from the capital.

Picking a midfield three won’t be easy for Ancelotti this season but that isn’t exactly a bad thing for the Italian, the addition of Aurelien Tchouameni from Monaco is a fantastic buy despite the hefty price tag. The 22-year-old was a regular starter for the French club in back-to-back seasons and adds an extra amount of energy in central midfield.

With Karim Benzema seeming to get better with age after bettering his goal contributions for the fourth consecutive league season he’ll now be up against another lethal marksman in Robert Lewandowski. Karim will want to remain the league’s top scorer which will help his side massively in their defence of the title.

With the quality of players at Real Madrid, it’s hard to not see them regain the title in Spain. They have a strong core throughout the squad who know how to get over the line when they’re against the ropes just as we saw in their Champions League run. Thibaut Courtois was arguably the best keeper in the world last season, defensively they are tough and compact when needed and the addition of Rudiger makes them even stronger.

Kroos, Modric and Casemiro are all into their 30s now. However, the next generation has already made a name for itself in the early stages of their careers. Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde and Aurelien Tchouameni could quite possibly be the greatest midfield trio in years to come and will certainly have their parts to play in the upcoming season.

Vinicius Junior stepped up massively last season, he scored the winner in the Champions League Final and helped himself to a very respectable 27 goal contributions in 35 La Liga appearances last time out. If Eden Hazard can get back to the level we know he can get to then that’s another huge boost, the Belgian has yet to make an impact in the three seasons he’s been at Real.

The current and upcoming talent in this squad is extraordinary, with so much depth and talent and with very little changes they should be familiar with one another heading into the new campaign. I believe they will retain the title in the 2022/2023 La Liga season.

Selection: Real Madrid To Win La Liga (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.25
Provider: Unibet
Stakes: 8/10

La Liga 2022/2023 Outright Value Pick

We all know just how good Robert Lewandoski is at scoring goals, he was crowned top scorer in all of his previous five seasons in Germany with Bayern Munich and I’m happy to back him once again in Spain.

The 33 year old scored a remarkable 238 goals in 253 league games for the German giants recording his best two seasons in the last two campaigns. There is no doubt he’s going to be the first man on the team sheet week in and week out and with an offensive-looking Barca side he’ll be getting plenty of chances for his new club.

Karim Benzema is his main threat as the forwards are priced the exact same but I just have to lean with Lewandowksi, his numbers are incredible domestically and internationally and he is rarely ever injured. He featured in 29 or more matches in all of his 12 seasons in Germany for both Dortmund and Bayern, that’s not bad considering they play 34 times a season.

Selection: Robert Lewandowski Top Scorer (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.00
Provider: Skybet
Stakes: 8/10

La Liga 2022/2023 Outright Longshot

12.00 for something that’s banked last season and in three of the last six seems a little big to me and this will be my longshot for the season.

As mentioned previously I feel Real Madrid will have enough in the tank to regain the title in the 2022/2023 season, a winning mentality amongst the squad and a couple of fantastic reinforcements should make them even better.

Xavi’s Barcelona should make it a little more interesting this season in regards to the title race, they’ve been one of the busier sides in the transfer window over the summer but that doesn’t mean everything will fit into place that easy, the individual quality is certainly visible but as a team, it could take some time to come together.

Atletico have finished 3rd in five of the last eight seasons including the season just gone. Morata has returned after two years out on loan in Turin with Juventus whilst Joao Felix will be wanting to improve his goalscoring figure. Simeone hasn’t really made any major signings as of yet but there is quality in the squad but they usually tend to fall short behind the big two and a 3rd place finish is never too far away.