football | Thursday, August 4, 2022 1:23 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, August 9, 2022 9:26 AM)

2022/23 Ligue 1 Season Preview: Longshots, Value Picks, Teams to Avoid

Scott Thornton

Ante-post picks are subject to many more variables than a bet over the course of 90 minutes. Managers come and go, key players sustain injuries, and big signings can fail to make an impact. Despite this, I’ve got my early-season best bets for the outright selections in Ligue 1.

In this article:

Ligue 1 2022/23 Season Preview
Ligue 1 2022/23 Most Overvalued Teams
Ligue 1 2022/23 Most Undervalued Teams
Ligue 1 2022/23 Outright Lock Bet
Ligue 1 2022/23 Outright Value Pick
Ligue 1 2022/23 Longshot

All odds quoted are the best odds available as of 12:30 on 3rd August 2022. Odds may now differ.

THE BETTINGEXPERT NEWS 2022/23 Ligue 1 SEASON BETTING PREVIEW

PSG have appointed the last manager who beat them to the title, and it’s difficult to envisage anyone but the Parisians winning the title this season. However, there are plenty of interesting angles to look at in France this season.

Ligue 1 looks set to be particularly interesting. Four teams will be relegated from the French top flight with Ligue 1 set to switch to 18 clubs starting next season. This has made this ante-post preview even more exciting, with many teams desperate to avoid the drop.

Jorge Sampaoli quit as Marseille’s boss in the summer citing a lack of ambition from the board, and there are already issues reported within the camp ahead of the new season.

MOST OVERVALUED TEAMS IN Ligue 1 2022/22

Marseille

There are several reports from France that the players are already at odds with the new manager Igor Tudor. Tudor successfully guided Verona to a solid midtable finish in Serie A last season. However, his appointment was largely uninspiring.

Marseille finished second last season, but the loss of Jorge Sampaoli is a big one. The Argentine is a decorated coach and he seemed to command the respect of both the players and the fans in Marseille. His departure after just one season was a huge disappointment, and his damning verdict of the club’s ambition appears to have some weight behind it. The club have failed to significantly bolster their squad, and it looks set to be a turbulent
season for the side.

The club were able to bring in many of their loan players on permanent deals, but the news surrounding the squad isn’t positive. The group of players have collectively been accused of being lazy by Tudor, and there were reports of a bust-up between the manager and Gerson as early as last month.

Marseille look destined to make a slow start, and they probably can’t afford to give up any ground in the race for the Champions League spots this season.

OGC Nice

Nice are another team that has lost a highly influential manager after just one season. Christophe Galtier came to the club on the back of a league title with Lille, and the project at Nice looked extremely promising at the beginning of last season.

The club have brought in Aaron Ramsay on a free transfer and spent a further £30m on transfers. But their pre-season results have been less than satisfactory. They have recorded just one victory in five games, and head coach Lucien Favre hasn’t been in charge of a club since he was dismissed by Borussia Dortmund in 2020.

MOST UNDERVALUED TEAMS IN Ligue 1 2022/23

Lyon

Lyon finished in a lowly eight position last season, and they have responded by being extremely busy in the transfer market. Manager, Peter Bosz, is still highly thought of despite last season’s disappointment. He has a clearly defined style of play and it is thought that he will be able to mould this set of players into a squad that can challenge at the top end of the league.

Lyon haven’t spent a great deal so far, but they have done exceptionally well in the market. They have brought in Tolisso on a free from Bayern Munich, and Alexandre Lacazette returning to the club after his contract with Arsenal expired has been greeted with excitement. Nicolas Tagliafico has been brought in for a small fee from Ajax. So there is some expectation that this season will be much better for the team that used to dominate French football.

They also have the advantage of not playing in Europe this season. The less hectic fixture schedule will allow Bosz to name a settled starting eleven in the league, without needing to rotate for those midweek trips abroad.

Selection: Lyon To Win The League Without PSG (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 3.75
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 7/10

Rennes

Rennes performed extremely well last season and will be rewarded with European football this season. However, this will feel bittersweet as the team missed out on playing in Europe’s top level competition after winning just three of their last seven Ligue games last season.

They have kept hold of their talented coach, Bruno Genesio, and they have recruited well. They raised £50 million from the sales of Nayef Aguerd and Mathys Tel, so there is plenty more money to invest in the squad if the opportunity arises before the window shuts. They have also filled the gaps left by departures with some very astute business by bringing in free transfers.

For this bet, I see Monaco as their main rivals for 3rd position. They looked set to finish above the principality last season and I think they will run them very close again.

Selection: Rennes To Finish In The Top 3
Best Odds: 3.25
Bookmaker: SkyBet
Stakes: 6/10

LIGUE 1 OUTRIGHT LOCK BET 2022/23

A lot was made of Lionel Messi scoring just 6 league goals during his first season in France. The numbers fell woefully short of Messi’s brilliant best, but the truth of the situation is far more complicated than it seems on the surface.

Messi spent a large portion of last summer believing he would remain in Barcelona, and he was seemingly unprepared for his move to Paris. Mauricio Pochettino also failed to get any sort of rhythm out of the attacking talent at his disposal. There is a hope that Galtier will find a system that allows his best players to express themselves. Messi and Neymar thrived in the Trophee des Champions last week. Both players found the net, and it looks as though Messi is keen to impress in France this season.

The goal line set by the bookmaker seems to forget that this is the great Lionel Messi. I have seen enough from him towards the end of last season and in the lead-up to this season to believe he can go some way towards reaching the soaring heights that he has set throughout his career.

Last season was the first time he scored less than 20 goals since the 2007/08 season, and I don’t envisage him having another low-scoring season this time out.

Selection: Messi To Score Over 14.5 League Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.85
Bookmaker: Unibet
Stake: 9/10

LIGUE 1 OUTRIGHT VALUE PICK 2022/23

As previously discussed, I think that Marseille are set to struggle this season due to a number of factors. Even at this early stage it seems likely they will make a managerial change during the season, and the board’s reluctance to spend in the transfer market could also mean that they are reluctant to dismiss Tudor early on should things start disastrously.

Marseille managed 71 points last season, narrowly above the line set by the bookmakers here. In the previous three seasons, they have managed 60, 56 and 61 points, and I think their points tally this season will be closer to that mark given the perceived turmoil surrounding the club.

Selection: Marseille To Win Under 67.5 Points (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.85
Bookmaker: Unibet
Stake: 8/10

LIGUE 1 OUTRIGHT LONGSHOT 2022/23

The longshot requires a lot of things to go right for it to land. The situation can change drastically over the course of the season, but I think this bet represents good value.

It’s difficult to see anyone beating PSG to the title given the quality they have at their disposal. Christophe Galtier has proven he can win the league with fewer resources, so I don’t expect them to have any trouble retaining the title this season.

I like the look of Lyon as we head into the season. Peter Bosz will know that his side must perform after a dreadful showing last season. I have already spoken about how they have recruited well, and Marseille’s woes should further help their cause in finishing as the best of the rest in Ligue 1.

Rennes have brought in Steve Mandanda, Joe Rodon and Arthur Theate to sure up their defence ahead of the campaign. They were extremely unfortunate to miss out on Champions League qualification last season after they capitulated in the final games, but they showed they have the ability to finish above Monaco in the league, and I feel as though this would be enough for this bet to land.

They have also managed to keep hold of their key talents such as Kamaldeen Sulemana. The young winger was linked with a move abroad in the summer, and he could provide the star power needed for Rennes to break into the Champions League this season.