2022/23 Premier League Season Betting Awards: Which Clubs Were the Best to Back?

So that’s it. Another Premier League season has closed.

But don’t leave just yet. Let’s kick on. Before we close our coverage of the 2022/23 Premier League season, let’s take one last look back at the season. Which teams were the most profitable to back? Which clubs were the best to avoid? Which clubs outperformed the market?

So put on your tux, slip into your gown. Yes, it’s time to hand out the 2022/23 Premier League Betting Awards.

Note: Odds used in this analysis are average odds adjusted to a margin of 5%. Clubs are ranked based on performance at even stakes i.e profit or loss based on betting at single units on each outcome.

In this article:

• Match Result 1X2 Market
• Asian Handicap Market
• Over Under 2.5 Goals
• Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals

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Match Result 1X2 Market

Best Club To Back to Win: Brentford

Brentford were the best club to back in the 1X2 market this season. Though winning just 15 of their 38 matches, Brentford were a clear winner in this category.

Had you bet £10 on Brentford to win each of their 38 Premier League matches this season, you would have earned a profit of £234.70. It was a campaign that saw home wins over Liverpool at odds 6.10, Manchester Utd at odds 4.55 and eventual champions Manchester City at odds 3.35, albeit on the final day of the season.

While these victories were each impressive, it was Brentford’s 2-1 win at City back in November that earned the bulk of their profit this season, upsetting the Citizens at odds of 19.26. Brentford also saw away wins over West Ham at odds 3.45, Chelsea at odds 4.45 and Tottenham.

Honorable Mentions

The second most profitable club to back was Aston Villa. Had you placed £10 on the Villains to win each of their matches this season, you would have seen a profit of £122.60.

Villa won 18 of their 38 matches, with victories at home over Newcastle at odds 3.60 and Manchester Utd at odds 3.10 and away wins at Tottenham at odds 5.00, Brighton at odds 4.95 and Chelsea at odds 5.95.

Premier League Club 1X2 Win Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	WinS	Win P/L UNITS
1	Brentford	15	+23.47
2	Aston Villa	18	+12.26
3	Fulham	15	+8.17
4	Manchester Utd	23	+7.11
5	Arsenal	26	+6.30
6	Bournemouth	11	+5.62
7	Brighton	18	+3.26
8	Nottingham Forest	9	+0.07
9	Manchester City	28	-0.16
10	Tottenham	18	-1.56
11	Newcastle	19	-1.58
12	Liverpool	19	-5.16
13	Wolverhampton	11	-5.87
14	Everton	8	-6.20
15	Leeds	7	-9.18
16	Crystal Palace	11	-9.21
17	Southampton	6	-11.35
18	Leicester	9	-12.41
19	West Ham	11	-12.46
20	Chelsea	11	-19.40

Best Club To Bet Against: Chelsea

Not a shock here. Had you bet £10 on each of Chelsea’s opponents to win their given match this season, you would have earned a profit of £202.34.

Chelsea lost 16 of their 38 matches this season, including home losses to Southampton at odds 8.15, Aston Villa at odds 5.95 and Brentford at odds 4.45. Away from home Chelsea saw defeats at Leeds at odds 6.00, Wolverhampton at odds 5.00, Southampton (again) at odds 5.15 and Fulham at odds 4.00.

Dishonorable Mentions

The second best team to bet against this season was Southampton. Had you bet £10 on each of Southampton’s opponents through the 2022/23 Premier League season, you would have enjoyed a return of £129.21.

Liverpool were the third best team to bet against this season, returning a profit of £115.51 for those willing to bet £10 against them in each of their matches, while those backing against Leicester would have seen a profit of £109.62.

Premier League Club 1X2 Loss Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	LOSSES	Loss P/L UNITS
1	Chelsea	16	+20.23
2	Southampton	25	+12.92
3	Liverpool	9	+11.55
4	Leicester	22	+10.96
5	West Ham	20	+9.02
6	Leeds	21	+6.93
7	Brighton	12	+6.194
8	Tottenham	14	+2.82
9	Wolverhampton	19	+0.83
10	Everton	18	+0.78
11	Bournemouth	21	-3.33
12	Manchester City	5	-3.69
13	Aston Villa	13	-6.12
14	Nottingham Forest	18	-7.23
15	Crystal Palace	15	-8.66
16	Fulham	16	-10.08
17	Manchester Utd	9	-12.13
18	Arsenal	6	-14.04
19	Brentford	9	-19.45
20	Newcastle	5	-25.79

Best Club To Back to Win at Home: Nottingham Forest

The 2022/23 Premier League season saw the return of the home ground advantage, with the average goal margin for home clubs being +0.416 goals per match and home clubs earning an average of 1.68 points per match.

This was the highest home average goal margin since the 2010/11 season, when home clubs saw an average margin of +0.45 goals, with home clubs that season earning 1.71 points per match.

In fact had you placed a £10 bet on each home club in every match this season you would have seen a profit of £30.69, the largest profit for home clubs at even stakes since the 2009/2010 season when home clubs returned a profit of £43.82.

So which club was the best performed in the 1X2 market at home this season?

Nottingham Forest avoided relegation thanks mainly to their surprising form at home this season. Had you placed a £10 bet on Forest to win each of their home matches this season, you would have seen a profit of £159.53 thanks to victories over Liverpool at odds 9.30, Brighton at odds 5.75 and Arsenal at odds 5.20.

Honorable Mentions

Manchester Utd were the second best home club to back this season, returning a profit of £111.24 for £10 backers in season 2022/23, while Brentford and Wolverhampton also returned decent profits at home

Premier League Club 1X2 Home Win Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	Home WinS	Win P/L UNITS
1	Nottingham Forest	8	+15.95
2	Manchester Utd	15	+11.12
3	Brentford	10	+9.33
4	Wolverhampton	9	+7.69
5	Aston Villa	12	+6.79
6	Tottenham	12	+4.69
7	Manchester City	17	+3.06
8	Bournemouth	6	+3.06
9	Fulham	8	+2.61
10	Arsenal	14	+2.44
11	Liverpool	13	+1.92
12	Everton	6	+1.24
13	Newcastle	11	-0.07
14	Brighton	10	-0.15
15	West Ham	8	-2.241
16	Crystal Palace	7	-3.74
17	Leeds	5	-5.36
18	Leicester	5	-7.01
19	Chelsea	6	-9.70
20	Southampton	2	-10.96

Best Club To Back To Win Away: Brentford

Brentford were the best club to back across the course of the season with their away form doing the bulk of the work. Had you backed Brentford at £10 in each away match this season, you would have claimed a profit of £141.40, again thanks mainly to their victory at Manchester City early in the season.

Premier League Club 1X2 Away Win Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	AWAY WinS	Win P/L UNITS
1	Brentford	5	+14.14
2	Fulham	7	+5.57
3	Aston Villa	6	+5.47
4	Arsenal	12	+3.86
5	Brighton	8	+3.40
6	Bournemouth	5	+2.56
7	Southampton	4	-0.40
8	Newcastle	8	-1.51
9	Manchester City	11	-3.23
10	Leeds	2	-3.82
11	Manchester Utd	8	-4.02
12	Leicester	4	-5.40
13	Crystal Palace	4	-5.47
14	Tottenham	6	-6.25
15	Liverpool	6	-7.08
16	Everton	2	-7.44
17	Chelsea	5	-9.71
18	West Ham	3	-10.22
19	Wolverhampton	2	-13.55
20	Nottingham Forest	1	-15.88

Other 1X2 Award Winners

• Worst Club To Back to Win: Chelsea (-£194.00)
• Worst Club To Back to Lose: Brentford (-£194.50)
• Best Club To Back for the Draw: Newcastle (+£193.10)
• Worst Club To Back for the Draw: Tottenham (-£165.90)
• Worst Club To Back to Win at Home: Southampton (-£109.57)
• Best Club to Back to Lose at Home: Southampton (+£102.90)
• Worst Club To Back to Win Away: Nottingham Forest (-£158.81)
• Best Club to Back to Lose at Home: Liverpool (+£187.27)

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Asian Handicap Market

Best Club to Back on the Asian Handicap: Fulham

Fulham were the best club to back in the Asian handicap market this season in the Premier League. Fulham went a combined 25-13 against the handicap this season, a combined win rate of 65.8%. Had you backed Fulham on the Asian handicap in each match this season, you would have seen a profit of £93.84.

Honorable Mentions

Given their performance in the 1X2 market, we may have suspected Brentford would likewise perform well in the Asian handicap market. Brentford went a combined 24-14 against the handicap this season, a win rate of 63.2% and backing them at even stakes of £10 saw a profit of £88.42 across the season.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Win Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	AH Win P/L UNITS
1	Fulham	25	13	65.8%	+9.38
2	Brentford	24	14	63.2%	+8.84
3	Arsenal	23.25	14.75	61.2%	+6.81
4	Crystal Palace	23.25	14.75	61.2%	+6.48
5	Newcastle	23	15	60.5%	+6.122
6	Aston Villa	22.5	15.5	59.2%	+5.72
7	Manchester City	20.5	17.5	53.9%	+2.03
8	Manchester Utd	20.5	17.5	53.9%	+1.98
9	Nottingham Forest	20.25	17.75	53.3%	+0.81
10	Bournemouth	20	18	52.6%	+0.62
11	Tottenham	18.25	19.75	48.0%	-1.63
12	Brighton	18	20	47.4%	-3.62
13	Everton	17.75	20.25	46.7%	-3.62
14	Leicester	16.75	21.25	44.1%	-4.65
15	West Ham	16.75	21.25	44.1%	-5.24
16	Wolverhampton	15.75	22.25	41.4%	-7.20
17	Leeds	15.25	22.75	40.1%	-8.23
18	Liverpool	14	24	36.8%	-10.79
19	Southampton	13	25	34.2%	-13.02
20	Chelsea	12.25	25.75	32.2%	-14.41

Best Club to Bet Against on the AH: Chelsea

Chelsea takes out both the 1X2 and Asian handicap best club to bet against categories this season. Chelsea were a combined 12.25-25,75 against the handicap this season, a win rate of just 32.2%. Placing a £10 wager on each of their opponents to cover the handicap this season would have seen a profit of £115.93.

Dishonorable Mentions

Southampton went 13-25 against the handicap this season, a win rate of 34.2%. Betting £10 on their opponents in the Asian handicap market this season would have delivered you a profit of £105.85.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Loss Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	Ah Loss P/L UNITS
1	Chelsea	12.25	25.75	32.2%	+11.59
2	Southampton	13	25	34.2%	+10.59
3	Liverpool	14	24	36.8%	+8.13
4	Leeds	15.25	22.75	40.1%	+6.70
5	Wolverhampton	15.75	22.25	41.4%	+5.06
6	West Ham	16.75	21.25	44.1%	+3.52
7	Leicester	16.75	21.25	44.1%	+2.56
8	Everton	17.75	20.25	46.7%	+2.25
9	Brighton	18	20	47.4%	+0.68
10	Tottenham	18.25	19.75	48.0%	+0.37
11	Bournemouth	20	18	52.6%	-2.56
12	Nottingham Forest	20.25	17.75	53.3%	-3.46
13	Manchester City	20.5	17.5	53.9%	-3.89
14	Manchester Utd	20.5	17.5	53.9%	-4.54
15	Aston Villa	22.5	15.5	59.2%	-7.90
16	Newcastle	23	15	60.5%	-9.03
17	Crystal Palace	23.25	14.75	61.2%	-9.95
18	Arsenal	23.25	14.75	61.2%	-10.1
19	Brentford	24	14	63.2%	-10.85
20	Fulham	25	13	65.8%	-12.77

Best Club to Back on the AH at Home: Manchester City

As previously discussed, home clubs outperformed the market this season. Home clubs went a combined 201.5-178.5 against the handicap this season, a win rate of 53%.. Had you bet £10 on each home club in the Asian handicap this season, you would have claimed a profit of £11.23. This is the first time home clubs have delivered a profit at even stakes in the Asian handicap market since the 2009/10 season.

The 2022/23 Premier League champions were the best club to back at home in the Asian handicap market this season. City went 12.75-6.25 at home this season, a win rate of 67.1%. Placing a £10 bet on them in each match would have returned you a profit of £57.63.

Honorable Mentions

It was a tight race in this category with each of Nottingham Forest, Manchester Utd, Brentford, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace hitting a win rate against the handicap at home exceeding 64%.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Home Win Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	AH Win P/L UNITS
1	Manchester City	12.75	6.25	67.1%	+5.76
2	Nottingham Forest	13	6	68.4%	+5.66
3	Manchester Utd	12.5	6.5	65.8%	+5.41
4	Brentford	12.25	6.75	64.5%	+5.34
5	Aston Villa	12.5	6.5	65.8%	+5.23
6	Crystal Palace	12.25	6.75	64.5%	+5.03
7	Arsenal	11.5	7.5	60.5%	+3.18
8	Tottenham	10.75	8.25	56.6%	+2.43
9	Fulham	11	8	57.9%	+2.04
10	West Ham	10.5	8.5	55.3%	+1.49
11	Newcastle	10.5	8.5	55.3%	+1.10
12	Bournemouth	10.25	8.75	53.9%	+0.73
13	Wolverhampton	10	9	52.6%	+0.23
14	Brighton	8.75	10.25	46.1%	-2.15
15	Leeds	8.25	10.75	43.4%	-2.65
16	Everton	8	11	42.1%	-3.31
17	Leicester	7.5	11.5	39.5%	-4.34
18	Liverpool	7.25	11.75	38.2%	-5.08
19	Chelsea	6.25	12.75	32.9%	-6.97
20	Southampton	5.75	13.25	30.3%	-7.91

Best Club to Back on the AH Away: Fulham

Fulham were the overall winners in the Asian handicap category this season, with their form away from home doing the bulk of the heavy lifting. Fulham went 14-5 against the handicap when away this season, a staggering win rate of 73.7%. Had you bet £10 on them in each of their away matches this season you would have enjoyed a profit of £73.42.

Honorable Mentions

Newcastle exceeded expectations away this season, hitting a win rate of 65.8%, going 12.5-6.5 against the handicap, returning a profit for £10 backers of £50.17.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Away Win Profitability 2022/23

Club	Matches	AH Wins	Ah Losses	AH Win %	AH Win P/L UNITS
Fulham	19	14	5	73.7%	+7.34
Newcastle	19	12.5	6.5	65.8%	+5.02
Arsenal	19	11.75	7.25	61.8%	+3.63
Brentford	19	11.75	7.25	61.8%	+3.50
Crystal Palace	19	11	8	57.9%	+1.46
Aston Villa	19	10	9	52.6%	+0.49
Bournemouth	19	9.75	9.25	51.3%	-0.11
Leicester	19	9.25	9.75	48.7%	-0.31
Everton	19	9.75	9.25	51.3%	-0.31
Brighton	19	9.25	9.75	48.7%	-1.47
Manchester Utd	19	8	11	42.1%	-3.43
Manchester City	19	7.75	11.25	40.8%	-3.74
Tottenham	19	7.5	11.5	39.5%	-4.06
Nottingham Forest	19	7.25	11.75	38.2%	-4.85
Southampton	19	7.25	11.75	38.2%	-5.12
Leeds	19	7	12	36.8%	-5.58
Liverpool	19	6.75	12.25	35.5%	-5.71
West Ham	19	6.25	12.75	32.9%	-6.73
Wolverhampton	19	5.75	13.25	30.3%	-7.44
Chelsea	19	6	13	31.6%	-7.44

Other Asian Handicap Award Winners

• Best Club to Bet Against at Home: Southampton, 13.25-5,75 (+£67.24)
• Best Club to Bet Against Away: Wolverhampton, 13.25-5.75 (+£67.33)

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Over Under 2.5 Goals Market

Best Club to Back Over 2.5 Goals: Fulham

There were a total of 1084 goals scored through the 2022/23 Premier League season, at an average of 2.85 goals per match. This was the highest average of goals per match in any Premier League season since the inception of the league.

It is the highest average of goals per match in any English First Division season since the 1967/68 season which saw an average of 3.03 goals per match.

Oddly enough while this season saw a greater number of goals, last season saw a greater number of matches finish with Over 2.5 goals, 205 compared to this season’s 200.

Which club was the best to back in the Over 2.5 Goals market this season?

A total of 25 of Fulham’s 38 matches finished with at least 3 goals this season, a strike rate of 65.8%. Had you backed £10 Over 2.5 goals in each of Fulham’s matches this season, you would have enjoyed a profit of £81.00.

Premier League Club Over 2.5 Goals Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Over 2.5 %	OVER 2.5 P/L UNITS
1	Fulham	25	13	65.8%	+8.10
2	Brighton	25	13	65.8%	+6.97
3	Arsenal	26	12	68.4%	+5.92
4	Leeds	25	13	65.8%	+4.88
5	Leicester	24	14	63.2%	+4.85
6	Tottenham	23	15	60.5%	+1.83
7	Manchester City	25	13	65.8%	-0.08
8	Southampton	20	18	52.6%	-2.54
9	Liverpool	23	15	60.5%	-2.77
10	Aston Villa	18	20	47.4%	-4.44
11	Everton	16	22	42.1%	-4.49
12	Newcastle	18	20	47.4%	-4.52
13	Bournemouth	18	20	47.4%	-5.13
14	Nottingham Forest	17	21	44.7%	-5.88
15	Manchester Utd	19	19	50.0%	-6.39
16	Brentford	17	21	44.7%	-6.59
17	Crystal Palace	15	23	39.5%	-7.71
18	Chelsea	16	22	42.1%	-7.75
19	Wolverhampton	15	23	39.5%	-8.58
20	West Ham	15	23	39.5%	-9.65

Best Club to Back Under 2.5 Goals: West Ham

West Ham matches finished with 2 goals or fewer on 23 of 38 occasions this past season, a strike of 60.5%. Had you bet £10 on Under 2.5 goals in each West Ham match this season, you would have seen a profit of £59.30.

Premier League Club Under 2.5 Goals Profitability 2022/23

Rank	Club	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Undr 2.5 %	UNDER 2.5 P/L UNITS
1	West Ham	15	23	60.5%	+5.93
2	Everton	16	22	57.9%	+4.89
3	Manchester Utd	19	19	50.0%	+4.53
4	Chelsea	16	22	57.9%	+4.22
5	Wolverhampton	15	23	60.5%	+3.94
6	Crystal Palace	15	23	60.5%	+3.80
7	Nottingham Forest	17	21	55.3%	+2.74
8	Newcastle	18	20	52.6%	+2.59
9	Brentford	17	21	55.3%	+2.26
10	Bournemouth	18	20	52.6%	+1.67
11	Aston Villa	18	20	52.6%	+1.18
12	Liverpool	23	15	39.5%	-2.36
13	Southampton	20	18	47.4%	-3.72
14	Manchester City	25	13	34.2%	-7.07
15	Tottenham	23	15	39.5%	-7.71
16	Leicester	24	14	36.8%	-8.67
17	Brighton	25	13	34.2%	-10.89
18	Leeds	25	13	34.2%	-11.02
19	Fulham	25	13	34.2%	-11.45
20	Arsenal	26	12	31.6%	-13.59

Other Over Under 2.5 Goals Award Winners:

• Best Club to Back Over 2.5 Goals at Home: Arsenal, 17-2 (+£89.07)
• Best Club to Back Under 2.5 Goals at Home: Wolverhampton, 14-5 (+£59.81)
• Best Club to Back Over 2.5 Goals Away: Brighton, 15-4 (+£81.82)
• Best Club to Back Under 2.5 Goals Away: Manchester Utd, 11-8 (+£53.40)

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Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals

Let’s close this discussion by taking a look at how each club performed against bookmaker expected goals.

What are bookmaker expected goals (or BxG as I like to refer to it)?

Essentially it is the expected goals for each match based on pre-match odds. For example, if the expected goal total is 3 goals and the home team is expected to win by half a goal, the BxG for the home club will be 1.75 goals, and 1.25 goals for the away club. Of course, there’s a little more that goes into the actual calculation of BxG, but this is the essential premise.

Greatest Differential Real Goal Difference vs BxG Goal Difference: Brentford

As we saw earlier, Brentford exceeded bookmaker expectations this season. In terms of BxG, the bookmakers had Brentford with 46.72 goals for and 55.93 goals against across their 38 matches, a BxG difference of -9.21 goals.

Brentford exceeded this expected goal difference by 21.21 goals, ending the season with 58 goals for, 46 against, a real goal difference of +12.

Honorable Mentions

It was close. Fulham came in second place, exceeding their BxG by 21.15 goals. Newcastle were also in the frame, ending the season exceeding their BxG by 19.50 goals.

Premier League Club Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals 2022/23

Rank	Club	GF	GA	GD	BxGF	BxGA	BxGD	DiffERENTIAL
1	Brentford	58	46	12	46.72	55.93	-9.21	+21.21
2	Fulham	55	53	2	43.41	62.56	-19.16	+21.15
3	Newcastle	68	33	35	60.40	44.90	15.50	+19.50
4	Arsenal	88	43	45	71.94	38.95	32.99	+12.01
5	Aston Villa	51	46	5	49.17	53.74	-4.58	+9.58
6	Brighton	72	53	19	60.08	47.83	12.25	+6.75
7	Crystal Palace	40	49	-9	41.70	55.20	-13.50	+4.50
8	Manchester City	94	33	61	89.30	32.14	57.16	+3.85
9	Nottingham Forest	38	68	-30	36.86	66.15	-29.29	-0.71
10	Leicester	51	68	-17	46.98	61.40	-14.42	-2.58
11	Bournemouth	37	71	-34	36.93	68.03	-31.10	-2.90
12	Tottenham	70	63	7	59.99	48.60	11.39	-4.39
13	Everton	34	57	-23	40.41	58.14	-17.73	-5.27
14	West Ham	42	55	-13	47.14	54.56	-7.43	-5.57
15	Manchester Utd	58	43	15	67.24	46.45	20.79	-5.79
16	Liverpool	75	47	28	78.93	41.46	37.47	-9.47
17	Southampton	36	73	-37	39.19	66.42	-27.23	-9.77
18	Wolverhampton	31	58	-27	42.09	56.18	-14.09	-12.91
19	Leeds	48	78	-30	47.21	63.63	-16.42	-13.58
20	Chelsea	38	47	-9	59.24	42.65	16.59	-25.59

Worst Real Difference vs BxG Goal Difference: Chelsea

No surprises again here. Chelsea were diabolical against the odds this season.

While bookmakers continued to keep the faith, handing Chelsea 59.24 goals for and 42.65 goals against, a BxG difference of +16.59 goals, Chelsea scored just 38 goals while allowing 47, a real goal difference of -9.

This saw Chelsea’s actual performance -25.59 goals worse than what the bookmakers had anticipated match to match throughout the season.

Dishonorable Mentions

No club was even close to Chelsea in terms of underperforming against bookmaker expectations match on match. Leeds were the second worst performer with their real performance -13.58 goals worse than bookmaker expectations.

Other BxG Award Winners:

• Greatest Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference at Home: Brentford, +15.89 goals
• Worst Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference at Home: Chelsea, -10.99 goals
• Greatest Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference Away: Fulham, +14.90 goals
• Worst Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference Away: Manchester Utd, -15.70 goals

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