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football | Tuesday, May 30, 2023 11:52 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, May 31, 2023 2:29 PM)

2022/23 Premier League Season Betting Awards: Which Clubs Were the Best to Back?

2022/23 Premier League Season Betting Awards: Which Clubs Were the Best to Back?
Andrew Brocker
Andrew Brocker
2

So that’s it. Another Premier League season has closed.

But don’t leave just yet. Let’s kick on. Before we close our coverage of the 2022/23 Premier League season, let’s take one last look back at the season. Which teams were the most profitable to back? Which clubs were the best to avoid? Which clubs outperformed the market?

So put on your tux, slip into your gown. Yes, it’s time to hand out the 2022/23 Premier League Betting Awards.

Note: Odds used in this analysis are average odds adjusted to a margin of 5%. Clubs are ranked based on performance at even stakes i.e profit or loss based on betting at single units on each outcome.

In this article:


Match Result 1X2 Market

Best Club To Back to Win: Brentford

Brentford were the best club to back in the 1X2 market this season. Though winning just 15 of their 38 matches, Brentford were a clear winner in this category.

Had you bet £10 on Brentford to win each of their 38 Premier League matches this season, you would have earned a profit of £234.70. It was a campaign that saw home wins over Liverpool at odds 6.10, Manchester Utd at odds 4.55 and eventual champions Manchester City at odds 3.35, albeit on the final day of the season.

While these victories were each impressive, it was Brentford’s 2-1 win at City back in November that earned the bulk of their profit this season, upsetting the Citizens at odds of 19.26. Brentford also saw away wins over West Ham at odds 3.45, Chelsea at odds 4.45 and Tottenham.

Honorable Mentions

The second most profitable club to back was Aston Villa. Had you placed £10 on the Villains to win each of their matches this season, you would have seen a profit of £122.60.

Villa won 18 of their 38 matches, with victories at home over Newcastle at odds 3.60 and Manchester Utd at odds 3.10 and away wins at Tottenham at odds 5.00, Brighton at odds 4.95 and Chelsea at odds 5.95.

Premier League Club 1X2 Win Profitability 2022/23

RankClubWinSWin P/L UNITS
1Brentford15+23.47
2Aston Villa18+12.26
3Fulham15+8.17
4Manchester Utd23+7.11
5Arsenal26+6.30
6Bournemouth11+5.62
7Brighton18+3.26
8Nottingham Forest9+0.07
9Manchester City28-0.16
10Tottenham18-1.56
11Newcastle19-1.58
12Liverpool19-5.16
13Wolverhampton11-5.87
14Everton8-6.20
15Leeds7-9.18
16Crystal Palace11-9.21
17Southampton6-11.35
18Leicester9-12.41
19West Ham11-12.46
20Chelsea11-19.40

Best Club To Bet Against: Chelsea

Not a shock here. Had you bet £10 on each of Chelsea’s opponents to win their given match this season, you would have earned a profit of £202.34.

Chelsea lost 16 of their 38 matches this season, including home losses to Southampton at odds 8.15, Aston Villa at odds 5.95 and Brentford at odds 4.45. Away from home Chelsea saw defeats at Leeds at odds 6.00, Wolverhampton at odds 5.00, Southampton (again) at odds 5.15 and Fulham at odds 4.00.

Dishonorable Mentions

The second best team to bet against this season was Southampton. Had you bet £10 on each of Southampton’s opponents through the 2022/23 Premier League season, you would have enjoyed a return of £129.21.

Liverpool were the third best team to bet against this season, returning a profit of £115.51 for those willing to bet £10 against them in each of their matches, while those backing against Leicester would have seen a profit of £109.62.

Premier League Club 1X2 Loss Profitability 2022/23

RankClubLOSSESLoss P/L UNITS
1Chelsea16+20.23
2Southampton25+12.92
3Liverpool9+11.55
4Leicester22+10.96
5West Ham20+9.02
6Leeds21+6.93
7Brighton12+6.194
8Tottenham14+2.82
9Wolverhampton19+0.83
10Everton18+0.78
11Bournemouth21-3.33
12Manchester City5-3.69
13Aston Villa13-6.12
14Nottingham Forest18-7.23
15Crystal Palace15-8.66
16Fulham16-10.08
17Manchester Utd9-12.13
18Arsenal6-14.04
19Brentford9-19.45
20Newcastle5-25.79

Best Club To Back to Win at Home: Nottingham Forest

The 2022/23 Premier League season saw the return of the home ground advantage, with the average goal margin for home clubs being +0.416 goals per match and home clubs earning an average of 1.68 points per match.

This was the highest home average goal margin since the 2010/11 season, when home clubs saw an average margin of +0.45 goals, with home clubs that season earning 1.71 points per match.

In fact had you placed a £10 bet on each home club in every match this season you would have seen a profit of £30.69, the largest profit for home clubs at even stakes since the 2009/2010 season when home clubs returned a profit of £43.82.

So which club was the best performed in the 1X2 market at home this season?

Nottingham Forest avoided relegation thanks mainly to their surprising form at home this season. Had you placed a £10 bet on Forest to win each of their home matches this season, you would have seen a profit of £159.53 thanks to victories over Liverpool at odds 9.30, Brighton at odds 5.75 and Arsenal at odds 5.20.

Honorable Mentions

Manchester Utd were the second best home club to back this season, returning a profit of £111.24 for £10 backers in season 2022/23, while Brentford and Wolverhampton also returned decent profits at home

Premier League Club 1X2 Home Win Profitability 2022/23

RankClubHome WinSWin P/L UNITS
1Nottingham Forest8+15.95
2Manchester Utd15+11.12
3Brentford10+9.33
4Wolverhampton9+7.69
5Aston Villa12+6.79
6Tottenham12+4.69
7Manchester City17+3.06
8Bournemouth6+3.06
9Fulham8+2.61
10Arsenal14+2.44
11Liverpool13+1.92
12Everton6+1.24
13Newcastle11-0.07
14Brighton10-0.15
15West Ham8-2.241
16Crystal Palace7-3.74
17Leeds5-5.36
18Leicester5-7.01
19Chelsea6-9.70
20Southampton2-10.96

Best Club To Back To Win Away: Brentford

Brentford were the best club to back across the course of the season with their away form doing the bulk of the work. Had you backed Brentford at £10 in each away match this season, you would have claimed a profit of £141.40, again thanks mainly to their victory at Manchester City early in the season.

Premier League Club 1X2 Away Win Profitability 2022/23

RankClubAWAY WinSWin P/L UNITS
1Brentford5+14.14
2Fulham7+5.57
3Aston Villa6+5.47
4Arsenal12+3.86
5Brighton8+3.40
6Bournemouth5+2.56
7Southampton4-0.40
8Newcastle8-1.51
9Manchester City11-3.23
10Leeds2-3.82
11Manchester Utd8-4.02
12Leicester4-5.40
13Crystal Palace4-5.47
14Tottenham6-6.25
15Liverpool6-7.08
16Everton2-7.44
17Chelsea5-9.71
18West Ham3-10.22
19Wolverhampton2-13.55
20Nottingham Forest1-15.88

Other 1X2 Award Winners

  • Worst Club To Back to Win: Chelsea (-£194.00)
  • Worst Club To Back to Lose: Brentford (-£194.50)
  • Best Club To Back for the Draw: Newcastle (+£193.10)
  • Worst Club To Back for the Draw: Tottenham (-£165.90)
  • Worst Club To Back to Win at Home: Southampton (-£109.57)
  • Best Club to Back to Lose at Home: Southampton (+£102.90)
  • Worst Club To Back to Win Away: Nottingham Forest (-£158.81)
  • Best Club to Back to Lose at Home: Liverpool (+£187.27)

Asian Handicap Market

Best Club to Back on the Asian Handicap: Fulham

Fulham were the best club to back in the Asian handicap market this season in the Premier League. Fulham went a combined 25-13 against the handicap this season, a combined win rate of 65.8%. Had you backed Fulham on the Asian handicap in each match this season, you would have seen a profit of £93.84.

Honorable Mentions

Given their performance in the 1X2 market, we may have suspected Brentford would likewise perform well in the Asian handicap market. Brentford went a combined 24-14 against the handicap this season, a win rate of 63.2% and backing them at even stakes of £10 saw a profit of £88.42 across the season.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Win Profitability 2022/23

RankClubAH WinsAh LossesAH Win %AH Win P/L UNITS
1Fulham251365.8%+9.38
2Brentford241463.2%+8.84
3Arsenal23.2514.7561.2%+6.81
4Crystal Palace23.2514.7561.2%+6.48
5Newcastle231560.5%+6.122
6Aston Villa22.515.559.2%+5.72
7Manchester City20.517.553.9%+2.03
8Manchester Utd20.517.553.9%+1.98
9Nottingham Forest20.2517.7553.3%+0.81
10Bournemouth201852.6%+0.62
11Tottenham18.2519.7548.0%-1.63
12Brighton182047.4%-3.62
13Everton17.7520.2546.7%-3.62
14Leicester16.7521.2544.1%-4.65
15West Ham16.7521.2544.1%-5.24
16Wolverhampton15.7522.2541.4%-7.20
17Leeds15.2522.7540.1%-8.23
18Liverpool142436.8%-10.79
19Southampton132534.2%-13.02
20Chelsea12.2525.7532.2%-14.41

Best Club to Bet Against on the AH: Chelsea

Chelsea takes out both the 1X2 and Asian handicap best club to bet against categories this season. Chelsea were a combined 12.25-25,75 against the handicap this season, a win rate of just 32.2%. Placing a £10 wager on each of their opponents to cover the handicap this season would have seen a profit of £115.93.

Dishonorable Mentions

Southampton went 13-25 against the handicap this season, a win rate of 34.2%. Betting £10 on their opponents in the Asian handicap market this season would have delivered you a profit of £105.85.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Loss Profitability 2022/23

RankClubAH WinsAh LossesAH Win %Ah Loss P/L UNITS
1Chelsea12.2525.7532.2%+11.59
2Southampton132534.2%+10.59
3Liverpool142436.8%+8.13
4Leeds15.2522.7540.1%+6.70
5Wolverhampton15.7522.2541.4%+5.06
6West Ham16.7521.2544.1%+3.52
7Leicester16.7521.2544.1%+2.56
8Everton17.7520.2546.7%+2.25
9Brighton182047.4%+0.68
10Tottenham18.2519.7548.0%+0.37
11Bournemouth201852.6%-2.56
12Nottingham Forest20.2517.7553.3%-3.46
13Manchester City20.517.553.9%-3.89
14Manchester Utd20.517.553.9%-4.54
15Aston Villa22.515.559.2%-7.90
16Newcastle231560.5%-9.03
17Crystal Palace23.2514.7561.2%-9.95
18Arsenal23.2514.7561.2%-10.1
19Brentford241463.2%-10.85
20Fulham251365.8%-12.77

Best Club to Back on the AH at Home: Manchester City

As previously discussed, home clubs outperformed the market this season. Home clubs went a combined 201.5-178.5 against the handicap this season, a win rate of 53%.. Had you bet £10 on each home club in the Asian handicap this season, you would have claimed a profit of £11.23. This is the first time home clubs have delivered a profit at even stakes in the Asian handicap market since the 2009/10 season.

The 2022/23 Premier League champions were the best club to back at home in the Asian handicap market this season. City went 12.75-6.25 at home this season, a win rate of 67.1%. Placing a £10 bet on them in each match would have returned you a profit of £57.63.

Honorable Mentions

It was a tight race in this category with each of Nottingham Forest, Manchester Utd, Brentford, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace hitting a win rate against the handicap at home exceeding 64%.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Home Win Profitability 2022/23

RankClubAH WinsAh LossesAH Win %AH Win P/L UNITS
1Manchester City12.756.2567.1%+5.76
2Nottingham Forest13668.4%+5.66
3Manchester Utd12.56.565.8%+5.41
4Brentford12.256.7564.5%+5.34
5Aston Villa12.56.565.8%+5.23
6Crystal Palace12.256.7564.5%+5.03
7Arsenal11.57.560.5%+3.18
8Tottenham10.758.2556.6%+2.43
9Fulham11857.9%+2.04
10West Ham10.58.555.3%+1.49
11Newcastle10.58.555.3%+1.10
12Bournemouth10.258.7553.9%+0.73
13Wolverhampton10952.6%+0.23
14Brighton8.7510.2546.1%-2.15
15Leeds8.2510.7543.4%-2.65
16Everton81142.1%-3.31
17Leicester7.511.539.5%-4.34
18Liverpool7.2511.7538.2%-5.08
19Chelsea6.2512.7532.9%-6.97
20Southampton5.7513.2530.3%-7.91

Best Club to Back on the AH Away: Fulham

Fulham were the overall winners in the Asian handicap category this season, with their form away from home doing the bulk of the heavy lifting. Fulham went 14-5 against the handicap when away this season, a staggering win rate of 73.7%. Had you bet £10 on them in each of their away matches this season you would have enjoyed a profit of £73.42.

Honorable Mentions

Newcastle exceeded expectations away this season, hitting a win rate of 65.8%, going 12.5-6.5 against the handicap, returning a profit for £10 backers of £50.17.

Premier League Club Asian Handicap Away Win Profitability 2022/23

ClubMatchesAH WinsAh LossesAH Win %AH Win P/L UNITS
Fulham1914573.7%+7.34
Newcastle1912.56.565.8%+5.02
Arsenal1911.757.2561.8%+3.63
Brentford1911.757.2561.8%+3.50
Crystal Palace1911857.9%+1.46
Aston Villa1910952.6%+0.49
Bournemouth199.759.2551.3%-0.11
Leicester199.259.7548.7%-0.31
Everton199.759.2551.3%-0.31
Brighton199.259.7548.7%-1.47
Manchester Utd1981142.1%-3.43
Manchester City197.7511.2540.8%-3.74
Tottenham197.511.539.5%-4.06
Nottingham Forest197.2511.7538.2%-4.85
Southampton197.2511.7538.2%-5.12
Leeds1971236.8%-5.58
Liverpool196.7512.2535.5%-5.71
West Ham196.2512.7532.9%-6.73
Wolverhampton195.7513.2530.3%-7.44
Chelsea1961331.6%-7.44

Other Asian Handicap Award Winners

  • Best Club to Bet Against at Home: Southampton, 13.25-5,75 (+£67.24)
  • Best Club to Bet Against Away: Wolverhampton, 13.25-5.75 (+£67.33)

Over Under 2.5 Goals Market

Best Club to Back Over 2.5 Goals: Fulham

There were a total of 1084 goals scored through the 2022/23 Premier League season, at an average of 2.85 goals per match. This was the highest average of goals per match in any Premier League season since the inception of the league.

It is the highest average of goals per match in any English First Division season since the 1967/68 season which saw an average of 3.03 goals per match.

Oddly enough while this season saw a greater number of goals, last season saw a greater number of matches finish with Over 2.5 goals, 205 compared to this season’s 200.

Which club was the best to back in the Over 2.5 Goals market this season?

A total of 25 of Fulham’s 38 matches finished with at least 3 goals this season, a strike rate of 65.8%. Had you backed £10 Over 2.5 goals in each of Fulham’s matches this season, you would have enjoyed a profit of £81.00.

Premier League Club Over 2.5 Goals Profitability 2022/23

RankClubOver 2.5Under 2.5Over 2.5 %OVER 2.5 P/L UNITS
1Fulham251365.8%+8.10
2Brighton251365.8%+6.97
3Arsenal261268.4%+5.92
4Leeds251365.8%+4.88
5Leicester241463.2%+4.85
6Tottenham231560.5%+1.83
7Manchester City251365.8%-0.08
8Southampton201852.6%-2.54
9Liverpool231560.5%-2.77
10Aston Villa182047.4%-4.44
11Everton162242.1%-4.49
12Newcastle182047.4%-4.52
13Bournemouth182047.4%-5.13
14Nottingham Forest172144.7%-5.88
15Manchester Utd191950.0%-6.39
16Brentford172144.7%-6.59
17Crystal Palace152339.5%-7.71
18Chelsea162242.1%-7.75
19Wolverhampton152339.5%-8.58
20West Ham152339.5%-9.65

Best Club to Back Under 2.5 Goals: West Ham

West Ham matches finished with 2 goals or fewer on 23 of 38 occasions this past season, a strike of 60.5%. Had you bet £10 on Under 2.5 goals in each West Ham match this season, you would have seen a profit of £59.30.

Premier League Club Under 2.5 Goals Profitability 2022/23

RankClubOver 2.5Under 2.5Undr 2.5 %UNDER 2.5 P/L UNITS
1West Ham152360.5%+5.93
2Everton162257.9%+4.89
3Manchester Utd191950.0%+4.53
4Chelsea162257.9%+4.22
5Wolverhampton152360.5%+3.94
6Crystal Palace152360.5%+3.80
7Nottingham Forest172155.3%+2.74
8Newcastle182052.6%+2.59
9Brentford172155.3%+2.26
10Bournemouth182052.6%+1.67
11Aston Villa182052.6%+1.18
12Liverpool231539.5%-2.36
13Southampton201847.4%-3.72
14Manchester City251334.2%-7.07
15Tottenham231539.5%-7.71
16Leicester241436.8%-8.67
17Brighton251334.2%-10.89
18Leeds251334.2%-11.02
19Fulham251334.2%-11.45
20Arsenal261231.6%-13.59

Other Over Under 2.5 Goals Award Winners:

  • Best Club to Back Over 2.5 Goals at Home: Arsenal, 17-2 (+£89.07)
  • Best Club to Back Under 2.5 Goals at Home: Wolverhampton, 14-5 (+£59.81)
  • Best Club to Back Over 2.5 Goals Away: Brighton, 15-4 (+£81.82)
  • Best Club to Back Under 2.5 Goals Away: Manchester Utd, 11-8 (+£53.40)

Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals

Let’s close this discussion by taking a look at how each club performed against bookmaker expected goals.

What are bookmaker expected goals (or BxG as I like to refer to it)?

Essentially it is the expected goals for each match based on pre-match odds. For example, if the expected goal total is 3 goals and the home team is expected to win by half a goal, the BxG for the home club will be 1.75 goals, and 1.25 goals for the away club. Of course, there’s a little more that goes into the actual calculation of BxG, but this is the essential premise.

Greatest Differential Real Goal Difference vs BxG Goal Difference: Brentford

As we saw earlier, Brentford exceeded bookmaker expectations this season. In terms of BxG, the bookmakers had Brentford with 46.72 goals for and 55.93 goals against across their 38 matches, a BxG difference of -9.21 goals.

Brentford exceeded this expected goal difference by 21.21 goals, ending the season with 58 goals for, 46 against, a real goal difference of +12.

Honorable Mentions

It was close. Fulham came in second place, exceeding their BxG by 21.15 goals. Newcastle were also in the frame, ending the season exceeding their BxG by 19.50 goals.

Premier League Club Real Goals vs Bookmaker Expected Goals 2022/23

RankClubGFGAGDBxGFBxGABxGDDiffERENTIAL
1Brentford58461246.7255.93-9.21+21.21
2Fulham5553243.4162.56-19.16+21.15
3Newcastle68333560.4044.9015.50+19.50
4Arsenal88434571.9438.9532.99+12.01
5Aston Villa5146549.1753.74-4.58+9.58
6Brighton72531960.0847.8312.25+6.75
7Crystal Palace4049-941.7055.20-13.50+4.50
8Manchester City94336189.3032.1457.16+3.85
9Nottingham Forest3868-3036.8666.15-29.29-0.71
10Leicester5168-1746.9861.40-14.42-2.58
11Bournemouth3771-3436.9368.03-31.10-2.90
12Tottenham7063759.9948.6011.39-4.39
13Everton3457-2340.4158.14-17.73-5.27
14West Ham4255-1347.1454.56-7.43-5.57
15Manchester Utd58431567.2446.4520.79-5.79
16Liverpool75472878.9341.4637.47-9.47
17Southampton3673-3739.1966.42-27.23-9.77
18Wolverhampton3158-2742.0956.18-14.09-12.91
19Leeds4878-3047.2163.63-16.42-13.58
20Chelsea3847-959.2442.6516.59-25.59

Worst Real Difference vs BxG Goal Difference: Chelsea

No surprises again here. Chelsea were diabolical against the odds this season.

While bookmakers continued to keep the faith, handing Chelsea 59.24 goals for and 42.65 goals against, a BxG difference of +16.59 goals, Chelsea scored just 38 goals while allowing 47, a real goal difference of -9.

This saw Chelsea’s actual performance -25.59 goals worse than what the bookmakers had anticipated match to match throughout the season.

Dishonorable Mentions

No club was even close to Chelsea in terms of underperforming against bookmaker expectations match on match. Leeds were the second worst performer with their real performance -13.58 goals worse than bookmaker expectations.

Other BxG Award Winners:

  • Greatest Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference at Home: Brentford, +15.89 goals
  • Worst Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference at Home: Chelsea, -10.99 goals
  • Greatest Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference Away: Fulham, +14.90 goals
  • Worst Real Goal Difference vs BxG Difference Away: Manchester Utd, -15.70 goals

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