football | Monday, January 8, 2024 3:50 PM (Revised at: Thursday, January 11, 2024 2:51 PM)

AC Milan vs Roma Predictions: Bet Builder Tips and Best Bets Preview

Daniele Fisichella

AC Milan vs Roma is not only of Serie A’s biggest fixtures, but it’s notoriously difficult to nail down a set of predictions and tips in a betting preview. It could also be the cherry on the cake after another great weekend. Last year, in January, it finished 2-2 at San Siro,with both teams coming into this match in good form: are we in for another cracking encounter?

After nailing his Bet Builder last week, Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella again provides his three best tips via bet365.

AC Milan vs Roma Bet Builder Tips and Predictions Preview

AC Milan vs Roma Tip 1: BTTS – Yes
AC Milan vs Roma Tip 2: Over 1.5 Goals In The Second Half
AC Milan vs Roma Tip 3: Over 2.5 Goals

Bet Builder Odds: 9.65

Also In this article:

AC Milan vs Roma Team News
The Predicted Serie A Table
How to watch AC Milan vs Roma
Safer Gambling

AC Milan vs Roma Tip 1: Goals aplenty in San Siro Best Bet

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, January 14th, 19:45 (UK)

The Rossoneri are unbeaten since December 9th (3-2 defeat against Atalanta), and in the last seven Serie A games, they have collected just one point (16) less than Inter and Juventus.

Have they turned the corner? Indeed, the last three successes, against Sassuolo, Cagliari in Coppa Italia and Empoli, have boosted the morale of Stefano Pioli and his men. Still, perhaps it’s too early to declare the team has wholly overcome the crisis.

Behind the encouraging numbers (AC Milan have won all their last six home fixtures, including a 2-1 success against PSG), there are still difficulties in managing games, especially after AC Milan takes the lead and plays at a slower rhythm. When AC Milan don’t go at full throttle, they suffer and seemingly lose themselves.

The multitude of injuries (Florenzi was the latest casualty last Sunday) and the absences of Bennacer and Chukwueze, both playing in the AFCON, have also forced Pioli to resort to young players and adapt Theo Hernandez to the role of centre-back.

The experiments so far have been successful, but the fixture list has been kind to the Rossoneri, who ended the ‘girone di andata’ (the first 19 Serie A fixtures) just one point better off compared to last season. It feels like a good place to start for this week’s AC Milan vs Roma predictions.

AC Milan vs Roma Tip 1: BTTS – Yes (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.95
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10

AC Milan vs Roma Tip 2: Lack of ‘big’ wins a concern for Mou

So far, AC Milan have kept ten clean sheets and only conceded four goals in Serie A at San Siro (best domestic defensive record, alongside Juventus).

But Roma, whose away record is poor (only two wins and a -4 goal difference on the road), will represent a sterner test, especially for their ability to score late goals.

In fact, the Giallorrossi this season have scored 50% of their goals after the 76th minute.

If they happen to fall behind in the match, Josè Mourinho, who won’t be on the bench on Sunday as he was sent off against Atalanta, won’t be afraid to throw the likes of Azmoun, Belotti and El-Shaarawy to test a make-shift AC Milan backline.

So far, Roma have been well below par – they’ve got eight points less compared to last year and need to start winning some significant games.

Last Sunday’s 1-1 draw at the Olimpico against Atalanta was the 12th occasion (out of 18 games) they failed to beat a top-7 side in Italy.

AC Milan vs Roma Tip 2: Over 1.5 Goal In The Second Half (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.25
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 7/10

AC Milan vs Roma Tip 3: Who’ll come out on top between Leao and Dybala?

But it wasn’t all doom and gloom for Mou at the weekend as Roma played with good intensity and dominated the possession, especially in the second half, against a tricky customer like Atalanta.

Roma’s squad is also very thin at the moment, mainly due to injuries, and Mourinho is having to adapt players (like Cristante or Kristensen) outside their natural position.

This is costing them in terms of consistency, organisation and solidity (they’ve only kept two clean sheets in the last ten games).

The good news came from the other end of the pitch, with Paulo Dybala once again on the scoresheet at the weekend (his ninth goal involvement since last October).

The Argentine and Romelu Lukaku (four goals in his last seven games) form a natural partnership and will give Milan’s defence plenty to do on Sunday.

On the other hand, Rafael Leao, who has one goal and one assist in his last two games, seems to have returned to his best form.

He often produces good performances against Roma (two goals and four assists in nine games), and the likely return of Hernandez to his natural full-back position will enhance the host’s attacking threat.

AC Milan are still shaky at the back but have many strings to their bow as lately the likes of Luka Jovic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and Olivier Giroud have all rediscovered their scoring boots.

The last seven games between these two sides have all seen both teams scoring, and in six of these games, there have been at least three goals.

AC Milan vs Roma Tip 3: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.20
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 10/10

AC Milan vs Roma Predictions odds via bet365 as at 10:45, January 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

AC Milan vs Roma Team News Preview: Watch out for changes after Coppa Italia ties

AC Milan will host Atalanta in the quarter-final of Coppa Italia on Wednesday, whereas, on the same day, Roma will play their city rivals. They’ll be both very intense games that might require extra time and penalties to be decided, so it’s expected Pioli and Mourinho will make a bit of turnover on Sunday.

For AC Milan, Matteo Gabbia might play as centre-back, with Theo Hernandez returning to his favourite left-back position. For Roma, if Paredes is fully fit, he’ll start in midfield, with Cristante slotting at centre-back.

Llorente is in contention to start with Huijsen (who impressed in his debut against Atalanta), and for the Rossoneri, the only doubt is about who, between Adli or Musah, will play in midfield next to Reijnders.

The Predicted Serie A Table

In AC Milan vs Roma, we have fourth vs sixth, according to our in-house data whizz, BETSiE. Our predictive model has the Milanese giants on course for a Champions League finish, as Jose Mourinho’s AS Roma misses out in 2023/24.

The gap between the two isn’t by much. The 7.6 points sound like a lot, but if Roma can put their big-team hoodoo to bed by beating AC Milan here, perhaps their season will take a different route.

Regardless of the outcome, one thing is usually nailed on – BETSiE is often correct.

POSITION	CLUB	GAMES	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Inter	38	28.3	6.2	3.5	87.2	22.2	65.0	91.1
2	Juventus	38	25.0	8.2	4.8	63.4	25.9	37.5	83.2
3	Napoli	38	20.3	8.0	9.8	68.7	40.1	28.6	68.8
4	AC Milan	38	20.5	7.3	10.2	64.2	43.9	20.3	68.7
5	Atalanta	38	17.9	7.6	12.5	58.3	42.2	16.1	61.4
6	AS Roma	38	17.0	10.0	11.0	59.3	41.6	17.7	61.1
7	Bologna	38	15.5	13.2	9.3	47.0	36.3	10.7	59.7
8	Lazio	38	16.2	8.9	12.9	47.7	40.4	7.2	57.5
9	Fiorentina	38	15.8	8.7	13.6	55.2	49.0	6.2	55.9
10	Torino	38	13.0	11.3	13.7	38.3	43.1	-4.8	50.2
11	Monza	38	12.2	11.6	14.1	43.3	48.1	-4.9	48.3
12	Genoa	38	10.9	9.7	17.4	35.8	46.2	-10.4	42.3
13	Frosinone	38	10.9	9.4	17.7	44.2	61.9	-17.7	42.1
14	Udinese	38	8.7	14.7	14.6	40.2	57.5	-17.3	40.8
15	Sassuolo	38	10.7	8.4	18.9	49.6	65.8	-16.2	40.5
16	Cagliari	38	9.9	9.6	18.5	41.4	62.2	-20.8	39.3
17	Lecce	38	8.6	13.3	16.1	40.4	59.1	-18.7	39.2
18	Empoli	38	9.0	8.8	20.2	32.7	61.8	-29.1	35.7
19	Verona	38	7.0	10.7	20.3	32.3	57.9	-25.7	31.8
20	Salernitana	38	4.9	10.0	23.1	29.1	72.9	-43.7	24.8

AC Milan vs Roma OPTA Stats Preview: the Giallorossi are winless in eight matches

In the last seven Serie A matches, only Inter and Juventus (17) have collected more points than AC Milan (16).
Roma have conceded in 10 out of their 11 away matches this season. The only clean sheet came in the derby (0-0 vs Lazio).
During the last 33 meetings with AC Milan playing at home, the hosts have won 15 times. There have also been 11 draws, while Roma has edged it on seven occasions.
Roma’s last away win against AC Milan was in 2017.
AC Milan have received five red cards this season – a league-leading figure in Serie A.

How to watch

AC Milan vs Roma, Serie A.
Date and Time: Sunday, January 14th, 19:45 (UK)
How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): TNT Sports

SAFER GAMBLING

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