BETSiE Predicts Serie A: Updated February 11th 2025

Inter enter Matchday 25 as 38.6% favorites against Juventus, while Napoli (40.2%) and AC Milan (74.7%) are expected to prevail over Lazio and Verona, respectively. Atalanta vs. Cagliari (73.0%) and AS Roma vs. Parma (52.9%) also project strong away wins.
Parma vs. Roma promises goals (3.18), while Atalanta vs. Cagliari (3.34) should also entertain.
Inter remain Serie A title frontrunners at 61.8%, ahead of Napoli (28.4%) and Atalanta (9.3%). Venezia (84.2%) and Monza (88.9%) face serious relegation concerns, sitting at the foot of the table.
Serie A Matchday 25 Projections: February 14th – February 17th
HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
AC Milan | Verona | 74.7% | 16.4% | 8.9% |
Atalanta | Cagliari | 73.00% | 16.2% | 10.9% |
Bologna | Torino | 45.70% | 31.6% | 22.7% |
Fiorentina | Como | 50.20% | 27.3% | 22.4% |
Genoa | Venezia | 50.00% | 26.8% | 23.2% |
Juventus | Inter | 33.5% | 27.9% | 38.6% |
Lazio | Napoli | 30.2% | 29.6% | 40.2% |
Monza | Lecce | 46.2% | 28.3% | 25.6% |
Parma | AS Roma | 24.9% | 22.2% | 52.9% |
Udinese | Empoli | 41.4% | 32.8% | 25.8% |
Projected goal totals: February 14th – February 17th
HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
AC Milan | Verona | 2.32 | 0.66 | 1.66 | 2.98 |
Atalanta | Cagliari | 2.49 | 0.86 | 1.63 | 3.34 |
Bologna | Torino | 1.12 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 1.82 |
Fiorentina | Como | 1.4 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 2.24 |
Genoa | Venezia | 1.44 | 0.89 | 0.55 | 2.33 |
Juventus | Inter | 1.13 | 1.24 | -0.1 | 2.37 |
Lazio | Napoli | 0.96 | 1.16 | -0.2 | 2.12 |
Monza | Lecce | 1.31 | 0.9 | 0.41 | 2.21 |
Parma | AS Roma | 1.26 | 1.92 | -0.66 | 3.18 |
Udinese | Empoli | 1.03 | 0.74 | 0.29 | 1.77 |
Projected league table
Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
1 | Inter | 38 | 24.6 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 84.3 | 34.1 | 50.2 | 82.9 |
2 | Napoli | 38 | 24.1 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 57.3 | 26.8 | 30.5 | 80.4 |
3 | Atalanta | 38 | 22.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 78.6 | 38.9 | 39.7 | 76.7 |
4 | Juventus | 38 | 17.9 | 16.2 | 3.9 | 64.9 | 33.4 | 31.5 | 69.8 |
5 | AC Milan | 38 | 18.1 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 58.8 | 36.8 | 22.0 | 66.0 |
6 | Lazio | 38 | 19.8 | 6.4 | 11.7 | 64.8 | 49.3 | 15.5 | 65.9 |
7 | Fiorentina | 38 | 18.3 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 60.4 | 39.1 | 21.2 | 64.7 |
8 | Bologna | 38 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 51.8 | 42.8 | 9.1 | 59.1 |
9 | AS Roma | 38 | 15.2 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 55.9 | 45.8 | 10.1 | 56.0 |
10 | Udinese | 38 | 12.0 | 9.9 | 16.0 | 42.0 | 54.3 | -12.3 | 46.1 |
11 | Torino | 38 | 10.6 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 38.4 | 42.6 | -4.3 | 46.0 |
12 | Genoa | 38 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 15.2 | 35.8 | 51.4 | -15.6 | 43.1 |
13 | Como | 38 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 17.0 | 43.9 | 55.8 | -11.9 | 41.2 |
14 | Cagliari | 38 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 18.9 | 42.4 | 62.7 | -20.3 | 39.0 |
15 | Verona | 38 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 22.3 | 39.5 | 75.8 | -36.3 | 36.5 |
16 | Empoli | 38 | 7.6 | 13.1 | 17.3 | 33.7 | 52.1 | -18.4 | 35.9 |
17 | Lecce | 38 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 19.9 | 29.3 | 63.9 | -34.6 | 35.7 |
18 | Parma | 38 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 19.3 | 45.3 | 68.7 | -23.3 | 33.6 |
19 | Venezia | 38 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 21.5 | 34.1 | 61.3 | -27.1 | 28.4 |
20 | Monza | 38 | 5.5 | 10.6 | 21.9 | 33.6 | 59.2 | -25.6 | 27.2 |
League finish probabilities
Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Top 4 Finish | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
Inter | 61.8% | 88.3% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Napoli | 28.4% | 70.4% | 98.4% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Atalanta | 9.3% | 35.9% | 94.2% | 99.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Juventus | 0.4% | 3.7% | 56.3% | 91.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AC Milan | 0.1% | 0.7% | 19.5% | 68.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Lazio | 0.0% | 0.6% | 17.2% | 63.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Fiorentina | 0.0% | 0.3% | 12.8% | 57.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bologna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 14.2% | 99.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
AS Roma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 4.8% | 97.2% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
Udinese | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.5% | 64.5% | 0.1% |
Torino | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.2% | 60.8% | 0.2% |
Genoa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.7% | 86.3% | 1.0% |
Como | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 90.8% | 3.5% |
Cagliari | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 96.7% | 7.7% |
Verona | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 22.3% |
Empoli | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.1% | 22.7% |
Lecce | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 99.4% | 26.6% |
Parma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% | 42.7% |
Venezia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 84.2% |
Monza | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 88.9% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Serie A season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Serie A fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Serie A season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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