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Analysis | Monday, October 16, 2023 12:17 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, February 11, 2025 9:11 AM)

BETSiE Predicts Serie A: Updated February 11th 2025

BETSiE Predicts Serie A: Updated February 11th 2025
IMAGO / Xinhua - FC Inter s Federico Dimarco celebrates his goal during a Serie A football match between FC Inter and Atalanta in Milan.

Inter enter Matchday 25 as 38.6% favorites against Juventus, while Napoli (40.2%) and AC Milan (74.7%) are expected to prevail over Lazio and Verona, respectively. Atalanta vs. Cagliari (73.0%) and AS Roma vs. Parma (52.9%) also project strong away wins.

Parma vs. Roma promises goals (3.18), while Atalanta vs. Cagliari (3.34) should also entertain.

Inter remain Serie A title frontrunners at 61.8%, ahead of Napoli (28.4%) and Atalanta (9.3%). Venezia (84.2%) and Monza (88.9%) face serious relegation concerns, sitting at the foot of the table.


Serie A Matchday 25 Projections: February 14th – February 17th

HOME AWAY Home Win % Draw % Away Win %
AC Milan Verona 74.7% 16.4% 8.9%
Atalanta Cagliari 73.00% 16.2% 10.9%
Bologna Torino 45.70% 31.6% 22.7%
Fiorentina Como 50.20% 27.3% 22.4%
Genoa Venezia 50.00% 26.8% 23.2%
Juventus Inter 33.5% 27.9% 38.6%
Lazio Napoli 30.2% 29.6% 40.2%
Monza Lecce 46.2% 28.3% 25.6%
Parma AS Roma 24.9% 22.2% 52.9%
Udinese Empoli 41.4% 32.8% 25.8%

Projected goal totals: February 14th – February 17th

HOME AWAY HGF AGF GD GT
AC Milan Verona 2.32 0.66 1.66 2.98
Atalanta Cagliari 2.49 0.86 1.63 3.34
Bologna Torino 1.12 0.69 0.43 1.82
Fiorentina Como 1.4 0.84 0.57 2.24
Genoa Venezia 1.44 0.89 0.55 2.33
Juventus Inter 1.13 1.24 -0.1 2.37
Lazio Napoli 0.96 1.16 -0.2 2.12
Monza Lecce 1.31 0.9 0.41 2.21
Parma AS Roma 1.26 1.92 -0.66 3.18
Udinese Empoli 1.03 0.74 0.29 1.77

Projected league table

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD Points
1 Inter 38 24.6 9.0 4.4 84.3 34.1 50.2 82.9
2 Napoli 38 24.1 8.0 5.9 57.3 26.8 30.5 80.4
3 Atalanta 38 22.8 8.2 7.0 78.6 38.9 39.7 76.7
4 Juventus 38 17.9 16.2 3.9 64.9 33.4 31.5 69.8
5 AC Milan 38 18.1 11.7 8.2 58.8 36.8 22.0 66.0
6 Lazio 38 19.8 6.4 11.7 64.8 49.3 15.5 65.9
7 Fiorentina 38 18.3 9.7 10.0 60.4 39.1 21.2 64.7
8 Bologna 38 14.6 15.3 8.1 51.8 42.8 9.1 59.1
9 AS Roma 38 15.2 10.4 12.4 55.9 45.8 10.1 56.0
10 Udinese 38 12.0 9.9 16.0 42.0 54.3 -12.3 46.1
11 Torino 38 10.6 14.2 13.2 38.4 42.6 -4.3 46.0
12 Genoa 38 10.1 12.7 15.2 35.8 51.4 -15.6 43.1
13 Como 38 10.1 10.9 17.0 43.9 55.8 -11.9 41.2
14 Cagliari 38 10.0 9.2 18.9 42.4 62.7 -20.3 39.0
15 Verona 38 10.4 5.4 22.3 39.5 75.8 -36.3 36.5
16 Empoli 38 7.6 13.1 17.3 33.7 52.1 -18.4 35.9
17 Lecce 38 8.8 9.4 19.9 29.3 63.9 -34.6 35.7
18 Parma 38 7.5 11.2 19.3 45.3 68.7 -23.3 33.6
19 Venezia 38 6.0 10.5 21.5 34.1 61.3 -27.1 28.4
20 Monza 38 5.5 10.6 21.9 33.6 59.2 -25.6 27.2

League finish probabilities

Club Win League Top 2 Finish Top 4 Finish Top 6 Finish Top Half Finish Bottom Half Finish Relegation
Inter 61.8% 88.3% 99.7% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Napoli 28.4% 70.4% 98.4% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Atalanta 9.3% 35.9% 94.2% 99.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Juventus 0.4% 3.7% 56.3% 91.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AC Milan 0.1% 0.7% 19.5% 68.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lazio 0.0% 0.6% 17.2% 63.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fiorentina 0.0% 0.3% 12.8% 57.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bologna 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.2% 99.2% 0.8% 0.0%
AS Roma 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.8% 97.2% 2.8% 0.0%
Udinese 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35.5% 64.5% 0.1%
Torino 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.2% 60.8% 0.2%
Genoa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 86.3% 1.0%
Como 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 90.8% 3.5%
Cagliari 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 96.7% 7.7%
Verona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 99.0% 22.3%
Empoli 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 99.1% 22.7%
Lecce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 99.4% 26.6%
Parma 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 42.7%
Venezia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.2%
Monza 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.9%

What is BETSiE?

BETSiE projects the entire Serie A season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Serie A fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Serie A season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


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