Football 
Horse Racing BETSiE Serie A Projections
We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her Serie A projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers sidestep whatever potholes the Italian top flight serves up throughout the 2024/25 season.
What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE Serie A Projections
This weekend’s Serie A fixtures present a blend of challenges and opportunities for the teams involved. AS Roma is slightly fancies at home against Fiorentina, with a 50.4% chance of victory, indicating a competitive match-up.
Bologna’s encounter with Juventus promises to be closely contested, as Bologna holds a narrow edge for success, and Juventus has a 35.1% win probability. Cagliari hosts Udinese, with Cagliari holding a modest 41.0% chance of securing a home win.
Lazio is expected to perform well against Empoli, with a 50.0% probability favouring the visitors. Meanwhile, AC Milan is favoured with a 52.0% chance of winning against Genoa. Inter Milan is backed to secure a victory over Verona, boasting a 78.7% likelihood of success, demonstrating their strong form. Napoli is also expected to triumph over Lecce, with a dominant 65.1% chance.
Atalanta is heavy favourites against Monza, with a 71.5% probability of clinching an away win. Finally, Torino is looking to capitalise on their home advantage over Venezia, with a 46.0% chance of victory, vying for crucial points.
Projected Serie A Matchday 35 Goal Totals: May 2nd-5th
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| AS Roma | Fiorentina | 1.41 | 0.87 | 0.54 | 2.28 |
| Bologna | Juventus | 1.04 | 1.02 | 0.02 | 2.05 |
| Cagliari | Udinese | 1.21 | 1.03 | 0.18 | 2.24 |
| Empoli | Lazio | 0.95 | 1.47 | -0.52 | 2.42 |
| Genoa | AC Milan | 0.87 | 1.47 | -0.6 | 2.35 |
| Inter | Verona | 2.34 | 0.52 | 1.82 | 2.86 |
| Lecce | Napoli | 0.65 | 1.77 | -1.12 | 2.42 |
| Monza | Atalanta | 0.64 | 2.08 | -1.44 | 2.73 |
| Parma | Como | 0.99 | 1.37 | -0.38 | 2.36 |
| Torino | Venezia | 1.12 | 0.72 | 0.4 | 1.85 |
Serie A table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
Serie A Matchday 35 Projections: May 2nd-5th
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| AS Roma | Fiorentina | 50.4% | 25.7% | 24.0% |
| Bologna | Juventus | 36.1% | 28.8% | 35.1% |
| Cagliari | Udinese | 41.0% | 27.1% | 31.9% |
| Empoli | Lazio | 25.1% | 24.9% | 50.0% |
| Genoa | AC Milan | 23.0% | 25.0% | 52.0% |
| Inter | Verona | 78.7% | 14.4% | 6.9% |
| Lecce | Napoli | 13.6% | 21.3% | 65.1% |
| Monza | Atalanta | 10.8% | 17.7% | 71.5% |
| Parma | Como | 27.8% | 25.7% | 46.5% |
| Torino | Venezia | 46.0% | 29.9% | 24.1% |
Serie A table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projected Serie A Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Napoli | 38 | 24.4 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 60.3 | 27.6 | 32.8 | 82.2 |
| 2 | Inter | 38 | 23.6 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 79.4 | 35.7 | 43.7 | 79.7 |
| 3 | Atalanta | 38 | 21.4 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 74.2 | 34.2 | 40.0 | 73.1 |
| 4 | Juventus | 38 | 17.9 | 15.1 | 5.0 | 56.6 | 34.6 | 22.0 | 68.8 |
| 5 | Bologna | 38 | 17.5 | 14.2 | 6.4 | 56.2 | 41.1 | 15.1 | 66.6 |
| 6 | AS Roma | 38 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 54.2 | 36.4 | 17.8 | 66.1 |
| 7 | Lazio | 38 | 18.7 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 62.3 | 49.6 | 12.7 | 66.0 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 18.5 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 57.4 | 38.3 | 19.1 | 64.5 |
| 9 | AC Milan | 38 | 17.2 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 60.0 | 41.9 | 18.1 | 61.4 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 41.5 | 43.5 | -2.0 | 47.7 |
| 11 | Como | 38 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 15.4 | 48.7 | 52.4 | -3.7 | 47.7 |
| 12 | Udinese | 38 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 16.6 | 40.5 | 53.0 | -12.5 | 46.2 |
| 13 | Genoa | 38 | 9.8 | 13.1 | 15.1 | 31.8 | 46.3 | -14.5 | 42.5 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 18.6 | 39.1 | 53.7 | -14.6 | 38.0 |
| 15 | Verona | 38 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 21.9 | 33.7 | 67.7 | -34.0 | 36.3 |
| 16 | Parma | 38 | 6.8 | 14.9 | 16.3 | 43.5 | 59.8 | -16.3 | 35.4 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 5.6 | 14.1 | 18.4 | 31.9 | 58.5 | -26.6 | 30.8 |
| 18 | Lecce | 38 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 21.2 | 27.1 | 62.1 | -35.0 | 30.5 |
| 19 | Venezia | 38 | 4.8 | 14.1 | 19.1 | 30.0 | 53.5 | -23.4 | 28.6 |
| 20 | Monza | 38 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 25.5 | 28.0 | 66.7 | -38.7 | 17.7 |
Serie A League Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Top 4 Finish | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
| Napoli | 73.1% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Inter | 26.9% | 96.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atalanta | 0.1% | 3.6% | 97.5% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juventus | 0.0% | 0.0% | 56.6% | 89.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bologna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.8% | 60.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AS Roma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 57.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lazio | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 49.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fiorentina | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 36.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AC Milan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 7.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torino | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.5% | 55.5% | 0.0% |
| Como | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.5% | 59.5% | 0.0% |
| Udinese | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 85.9% | 0.0% |
| Genoa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 99.1% | 0.0% |
| Cagliari | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.1% |
| Verona | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 2.7% |
| Parma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1.4% |
| Empoli | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Lecce | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 65.0% |
| Venezia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 80.9% |
| Monza | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
What is BETSiE and Her Serie A Projections?
BETSiE projects the entire Serie A season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Serie A fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Serie A season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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