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After last week’s 0-0 stalemate, Matthew O’Regan is here to deliver his Aston Villa vs Ajax prediction, team news, line ups and fixtures preview.
The Premier League outfit are the current 3.25 favourites for the Europa Conference League, but will need to find the breakthrough against Ajax on Thursday if they are to stand any chance of a first trophy in 28 years. Our Aston Villa vs Ajax prediction is for Aston Villa to win the match 3-1.
Europa Conference League , Thursday, March 14th, 18:00 (UK)
Aston Villa have been in fine goalscoring form this season, scoring 59 goals in 27 league games, as well as 12 in six Europa Conference League group games.
Unai Emery has tended to go strong in Europe as the Spaniard looks to add to his four European trophies. Despite this, Ollie Watkins has only started four of their nine games (including qualifiers).
The 28-year-old scored a hat trick in the 0-5 win at Hibernian in qualifying, as well as scoring in both starts against AZ Alkmaar.
Watkins is also chasing the Premier League Golden Boot, with his 16 goals putting him as the second top scorer in the league. He has currently scored five in his last five, including braces away at Fulham and Luton.
Facing off against an Ajax side who have only kept two clean sheets in their last 19, Ollie Watkins will fancy his chances of adding to his impressive goal tally.
Sunday’s match against Tottenham Hotspur was arguably one of the biggest league games in Villa’s recent history. Unai Emery’s side ultimately succumbed to the pressure, losing 4-0 despite the scores being level at half time.
The second-half capitulation was not ideal preparation for this Thursday’s crunch clash but Emery will not fret and will see it just as a blip.
His Villains side still boast the fourth best home record in the Premier League, accumulating 31 points from 14 home games – with only the three title challengers gaining more. They were also strong at home in their three home Conference Leagues games, winning all of them.
Ajax on the other hand have only the 10th best away record in the Eredivisie, winning just four of their 12 games, conceding 28 goals in the process. They only gained one point in their three group stages away games, nicking a draw away at AEK Athens before losing 2-0 at Brighton and 4-3 at Marseille.
They have conceded 37 goals in their last 15 away games and are yet to keep a clean sheet in any of these. Aston Villa will fancy their chances of extending Ajax’s dismal run.
Second-leg games in European competition are notoriously tense and cagey as teams see it as the last chance saloon to progress. After a red card each in the second half last week, I expect this Thursday’s clash to be no different.
Aston Villa have received the third most yellow cards per game in the league, averaging 2.61. They’ve also drawn 2.46 per game, with their games averaging over five yellows per game.
Their Europe Conference League games have seen plenty of cards, with only the 4-1 win over AZ Alkmaar failing to see both teams to receive 2+ cards each in their seven games. Three of these, including the first leg in Amsterdam, have seen 2+ cards each in the second half. This match saw a 3-4 second half split.
Ajax games have been feisty with six of their nine European games seeing two yellow cards each team, including their last four. Five of these games have seen 2+ cards each in the second half.
After a tetchy affair last week, expect cards to flow late on Thursday.
Aston Villa vs Ajax Prediction odds via bet365 as at 00:00, March 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Ezri Konsa’s red card last week has made him unavailable this week through suspension, adding to the long list of absentees for the hosts.
Fellow defenders Kortney Hause and Tyrone Mings are injured, as are midfielders Jacob Ramsey, Emiliano Buendia, and Boubacar Kamara.
Ajax is without teen right back Tristan Gooijer through suspension. Fellow youngsters Amourricho Van Axel Dongen and Gaston Avila, as well as the experienced duo Steven Bergwijn and Steven Berghuis, are also expected to be out.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup: Martinez, Cash, Lenglet, Torres, Digne; McGinn, Luiz, Tielemans; Bailey, Watkins, Diaby
Ajax possible starting lineup: Ramajl, Gaeei, Rensch, Kaplan, Hato, Sosa; Hlynsson, Henderson, Mannsverk, Taylor; Brobbey
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