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Golf BETSiE's Premier League Gameweek 15 Predictions: Updated 28th November 2023
Following their draw with Liverpool, Man City’s chances of winning the league slip to just over 54%, while Arsenal, on the back of their hard fought win over Brentford, climb to over 26% chances of winning the league. Liverpool remain steady at 15.3% while Newcaslte remain in the title hunt following their win over Chelsea, now 2.0% chances. Aston Villa are now 30.1% chances of finishing in the top 4, with Tottenham now slipping to 8.7% chances of featuring in the Champions League next season. At the foot of the table, Everton are now 25.2% chances of being relegated at the end of the season, with Burnley, Luton and Shelffield Utd all favoured ahead of them.
In this article:
- BETSiE Best Bets
- Projected Premier League Table
- Premier League Season Probabilities
- BETSiE Outright Best Bets
- Match Expected Goals
- Match 1X2 Probabilities
- Asian Handicaps
- Goals Totals
- Both Teams To Score
- What is BETSiE?
BETSiE’s BEST BETS for Gameweek 15
| SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford -1 (AH) vs Luton | 1.82 | Pinnacle |
| Tottenham +1.75 (AH) at Man City | 1.87 | bet365 |
| Newcastle to win (1X2) vs Man Utd | 1.99 | Marathonbet |
Odds correct as at 11am 28th November 2023. Odds may now differ.
BETSiE’s 2023/24 Performance
| Bet Type | Units | Won | Pushes | Losses | P/L | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicaps | 20 | 10.5 | 2 | 7.5 | 2.93 | 14.7% |
| Over Unders | 16 | 8 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 2.305 | 14.4% |
| TOTAL | 36 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 13 | 5.235 | 14.5% |
Projected Premier League Table
Updated: 28th November 2023
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.7 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 88.4 | 34.6 | 53.9 | 83.6 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 24.1 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 75.4 | 33.1 | 42.3 | 80.4 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 38 | 23.0 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 81.2 | 38.2 | 43.0 | 77.9 |
| 4 | Newcastle | 38 | 21.7 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 82.3 | 40.9 | 41.5 | 72.1 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.5 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 75.4 | 53.7 | 21.7 | 67.9 |
| 6 | Tottenham | 38 | 18.5 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 66.5 | 55.3 | 11.2 | 62.8 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 38 | 17.7 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 72.8 | 51.4 | 21.4 | 62.1 |
| 8 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 17.8 | 5.4 | 14.7 | 56.0 | 55.8 | 0.3 | 59.0 |
| 9 | Brighton | 38 | 16.3 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 68.1 | 60.6 | 7.5 | 58.4 |
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 60.9 | 53.8 | 7.1 | 54.4 |
| 11 | West Ham | 38 | 14.5 | 7.4 | 16.1 | 58.9 | 65.9 | -7.0 | 50.9 |
| 12 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 18.0 | 49.8 | 66.3 | -16.6 | 43.1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 17.8 | 42.9 | 58.6 | -15.7 | 43.0 |
| 14 | Nottingham | 38 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 17.1 | 45.8 | 58.6 | -12.8 | 42.4 |
| 15 | Fulham | 38 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 18.4 | 42.2 | 64.7 | -22.5 | 41.4 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 38 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 19.1 | 47.0 | 73.0 | -25.9 | 39.8 |
| 17 | Everton | 39 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 17.9 | 48.3 | 60.7 | -12.4 | 34.9 |
| 18 | Luton | 38 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 23.5 | 37.4 | 77.1 | -39.8 | 28.0 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 24.3 | 35.4 | 75.0 | -39.5 | 27.9 |
| 20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 26.7 | 31.6 | 89.2 | -57.6 | 20.6 |
Premier League Season Probabilities
Updated: 28th November 2023
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Top 4 Finish | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 54.4% | 81.8% | 98.6% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 26.4% | 59.8% | 94.8% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liverpool | 15.3% | 41.3% | 89.8% | 98.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle | 2.9% | 12.1% | 64.0% | 92.4% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 0.9% | 3.8% | 30.1% | 75.6% | 99.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 0.1% | 0.6% | 8.7% | 42.7% | 95.7% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 0.0% | 0.4% | 7.4% | 41.7% | 95.4% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Manchester Utd | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 20.2% | 86.4% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Brighton | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 19.1% | 85.9% | 14.2% | 0.0% |
| Brentford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 7.4% | 68.2% | 31.9% | 0.0% |
| West Ham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 40.9% | 59.1% | 0.1% |
| Wolverhampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 7.3% | 92.6% | 2.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 93.0% | 2.4% |
| Nottingham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 6.4% | 93.6% | 3.4% |
| Fulham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 95.7% | 4.9% |
| Bournemouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 97.5% | 8.0% |
| Everton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 99.4% | 25.2% |
| Luton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 78.2% |
| Burnley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 77.4% |
| Sheffield Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 98.0% |
BETSiE OUTRIGHT BETS BETS entering Gameweek 15
as at 28th November
| BETSiE OUTRIGHT BEST BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win league | 5.00 | Betway |
| Newcastle to win league | 67.00 | bet365 |
| Arsenal top 2 finish | 1.91 | Paddy Power |
| Newcastle top 2 finish | 10.00 | William Hill |
| Newcastle top 4 finish | 2.88 | Betway |
| Aston Villa top 4 finish | 3.00 | bet365 |
| Newcastle top 6 finish | 1.44 | bet365 |
| Aston Villa top 6 finish | 1.57 | Paddy Power |
| Chelsea top 6 finish | 2.80 | Paddy Power |
| Brentford top 6 finish | 51.00 | Paddy Power |
| Brentford top half finish | 3.30 | Paddy Power |
| Man Utd bottom half finish | 15.00 | bet365 |
| West Ham bottom half finish | 2.00 | BetVictor |
| Sheffield Utd to be relegated | 1.13 | bet365 |
| Burnley to be relegated | 1.50 | bet365 |
Odds correct as at 11am 28th November 2023. Odds may now differ.
Upcoming Matches – December 2nd, 3rd
Match Expected Goals
| Home | Away | Home | Away | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Wolverhampton | 2.36 | 0.69 | 1.67 | 3.06 |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | 1.38 | 1.92 | -0.55 | 3.30 |
| Brentford | Luton | 2.56 | 0.89 | 1.67 | 3.45 |
| Burnley | Sheffield Utd | 1.57 | 0.84 | 0.73 | 2.41 |
| Chelsea | Brighton | 2.16 | 1.25 | 0.91 | 3.41 |
| Liverpool | Fulham | 2.60 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| Manchester City | Tottenham | 2.36 | 0.87 | 1.49 | 3.23 |
| Newcastle | Manchester Utd | 2.21 | 1.06 | 1.16 | 3.27 |
| Nottingham | Everton | 1.37 | 1.27 | 0.10 | 2.64 |
| West Ham | Crystal Palace | 1.64 | 1.23 | 0.41 | 2.86 |
Match 1X2 Probabilities
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Wolverhampton | 74.6% | 16.2% | 9.1% |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | 27.5% | 22.2% | 50.3% |
| Brentford | Luton | 73.3% | 15.8% | 10.9% |
| Burnley | Sheffield Utd | 54.5% | 25.4% | 20.1% |
| Chelsea | Brighton | 58.1% | 20.4% | 21.5% |
| Liverpool | Fulham | 76.0% | 14.8% | 9.2% |
| Manchester City | Tottenham | 70.5% | 17.4% | 12.2% |
| Newcastle | Manchester Utd | 63.6% | 19.5% | 17.0% |
| Nottingham | Everton | 39.3% | 26.1% | 34.5% |
| West Ham | Crystal Palace | 47.0% | 24.4% | 28.6% |
Asian Handicaps
| Home | Away | Home AH | Away AH | Home AH % | Away AH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Wolverhampton | -1.5 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | 0.5 | -0.5 | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Brentford | Luton | -1 | 1 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| Burnley | Sheffield Utd | -0.5 | 0.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Chelsea | Brighton | -0.75 | 0.75 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Liverpool | Fulham | -1.75 | 1.75 | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Manchester City | Tottenham | -1.75 | 1.75 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Newcastle | Manchester Utd | -0.5 | 0.5 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| Nottingham | Everton | 0 | 0 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| West Ham | Crystal Palace | -0.5 | 0.5 | 47.0% | 53.0% |
Goal Totals
| Home | Away | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Wolverhampton | 2.75 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | 3 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Brentford | Luton | 2.75 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| Burnley | Sheffield Utd | 2.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Chelsea | Brighton | 3 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Liverpool | Fulham | 3.25 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Manchester City | Tottenham | 3.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Newcastle | Manchester Utd | 2.75 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Nottingham | Everton | 2.25 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| West Ham | Crystal Palace | 2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
Both Teams To Score
| Home | Away | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Wolverhampton | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| Brentford | Luton | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Burnley | Sheffield Utd | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Chelsea | Brighton | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| Liverpool | Fulham | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Manchester City | Tottenham | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Newcastle | Manchester Utd | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| Nottingham | Everton | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| West Ham | Crystal Palace | 56.9% | 43.1% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Premier League season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Premier League fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Premier League season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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