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This week’s second Serie A piece from our expert Daniele Fisichella is Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
Thanks to a great run in the last six Serie A games Atalanta have consolidated their fourth place in the table. Despite having beaten Inter Milan, Juventus and Fiorentina the visitors have got only 20 points in the table and are, unexpectedly, fighting to avoid relegation.
Our Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction is for Atalanta to win the match 3-1.
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And if you’d rather see the Podcast, Daniel Jenkins, and Sam Ingram in all their glory, here’s the YouTube video.
Italy, Serie A, Saturday, February 17th, 19:45 (UK)
Since 30 December 2023, no other team (apart from AC Milan, which has played one more game) has done better in Serie A than Gianpiero Gasperini’s side.
Last Sunday’s 4-1 in Genova was, in fact, Atalanta’s fifth consecutive success in all competitions and their sixth unbeaten match in Italy’s top flight.
Bergamaschi’s numbers since the end of last year are better than Inter’s ones: sixteen goals scored (two more than Simone Inzaghi’s men), and only three conceded (compared to Inter’s five).
The fine form of Charles De Ketelare (six goals and six assists) has contributed to Atalanta’s excellent results, which remarkably coincided with the absence of their top goalscorer, Ademola Lookman (seven league goals), playing at the AFCON.
With the Nigerian returning available for selection this weekend and the concurrent good form of Miranchuk and Pasalic, everything points towards an even more prolific Atalanta.
The hosts have scored in both halves in three of their last four games and have won their last six home games in all competitions, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Sassuolo, who have only kept one clean sheet all season, might be in for a tough night.
The Neroverdi have already been beaten twice by Atalanta this season: 2-0 at home in August in the league and 3-1 at the Gewiss Stadium in January in Coppa Italia.
Last Saturday, they managed to stop the run of three consecutive defeats thanks to a 1-1 draw against Torino,, but they remain in a very perilous situation, just one point above Verona in 18th place.
This is certainly Sassuolo’s most complicated season in Serie A since they achieved salvation in their first-ever top-flight campaign in 2013/2014.
They’ve won back-to-back games only once (in September as they defeated the top two teams in the table) and have got the second-worst defence away from home with 26 goals conceded (four less than Frosinone).
Worryingly for manager Alessio Dionisi, his team has never won (one draw, seven defeats, and only six goals scored) this season when their best player, Domenico Berardi (nine goals and three assists), has not been available.
The Euro 2021 champion will be out with a knee injury at least until the end of February, and Sassuolo has a couple of relegation six-pointers coming up.
A heavy defeat in Bergamo might mean the end of the road for Dionisi, who can at least take heart from Andrea Pinamonti’s decent form.
The striker has scored eight goals, five of which inside the opening 15 minutes of games, but hasn’t netted away from home since 26 November at Frosinone.
The visitors have Serie A’s 10th-best attack, as they’ve been more prolific than Lazio and Torino, but against such a dominant Atalanta, their defensive numbers are a real concern. The xG suggests they might have been slightly unlucky, as they’d have eight more points based on expected goals for and against, but it’s almost a year (25 February 2023, 1-0 win at Lecce) since they’ve kept an away clean sheet.
Atalanta have been extremely clinical at home against lower table sides; in fact, they’ve defeated Monza, Cagliari, Genoa, Salernitana, Lecce, Frosinone and Udinese by an aggregate score of 19-1.
Teun Koopmeiners has picked it up from where he left before the ankle injury as he scored his eighth goal of the season on Saturday, and record signing Touré has netted his first goal for the club, becoming the 18th Atalanta player to score this season in all competitions.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo Predictions odds via bet365 as at 15:45, February 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Ademola Lookman is back from AFCON but will start on the bench.
Ederson, who was suspended last weekend, will return in midfield to play alongside De Roon. Up-front, Gianpiero Gasperini will confirm Miranchuk, De Ketelaere and Scamacca. The only player not available for Atalanta is defender Hien.
In the visitors’ camp, Domenico Berardi is still out. Toljan, Volpato and Defrel are all doubt. Bajrami or Castillejo should play in attack alongside Laurientè and Pinamonti. Boloca returns in midfield alongside Matheus Enrique.
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Scalvini, Djimsiti, Kolasinac; Holm, De Roon, Ederson, Ruggeri; Miranchuk; Scamacca, De Ketelaere
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Pedersen, Erlic, Viti, Doig; Boloca, Henrique; Bajrami, Thorstvedt, Laurienté; Pinamonti
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Atalanta vs Sassuolo, currently 4th vs 16th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Inter | 38 | 29.1 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 87.6 | 23.3 | 64.3 | 93.0 |
2 | Juventus | 38 | 24.6 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 59.6 | 24.5 | 35.2 | 82.7 |
3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.6 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 70.2 | 47.1 | 23.1 | 72.3 |
4 | Atalanta | 38 | 19.6 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 65.3 | 40.7 | 24.6 | 65.5 |
5 | Napoli | 38 | 17.6 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 58.0 | 44.9 | 13.1 | 61.8 |
6 | AS Roma | 38 | 17.6 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 60.3 | 41.8 | 18.5 | 61.7 |
7 | Bologna | 38 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 48.1 | 39.3 | 8.8 | 59.1 |
8 | Lazio | 38 | 16.8 | 8.4 | 12.8 | 45.2 | 39.0 | 6.2 | 58.8 |
9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.6 | 8.0 | 14.4 | 51.6 | 47.3 | 4.3 | 54.8 |
10 | Torino | 38 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 36.6 | 35.6 | 1.0 | 53.7 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 14.4 | 38.1 | 44.3 | -6.2 | 46.4 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 15.2 | 37.1 | 50.9 | -13.8 | 45.0 |
13 | Lecce | 38 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 16.2 | 42.2 | 58.4 | -16.2 | 40.3 |
14 | Sassuolo | 38 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 19.5 | 49.2 | 64.6 | -15.4 | 39.6 |
15 | Frosinone | 38 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 19.2 | 48.6 | 68.7 | -20.1 | 39.3 |
16 | Udinese | 38 | 6.9 | 16.9 | 14.1 | 40.3 | 56.8 | -16.6 | 37.8 |
17 | Verona | 38 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 19.5 | 36.5 | 51.9 | -15.4 | 35.4 |
18 | Cagliari | 38 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 20.1 | 40.2 | 67.6 | -27.4 | 35.0 |
19 | Empoli | 38 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 20.0 | 30.1 | 57.6 | -27.5 | 34.2 |
20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.7 | 10.2 | 23.0 | 32.0 | 72.6 | -40.5 | 24.4 |
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