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We bring you our Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach tips and best bets preview courtesy of Bundesliga expert, Scott Thornton.
Bayern Munich face a battle to retain their Bundesliga crown. They were able to close the gap on Bayer Leverkusen last weekend but the wins must keep coming if they are to topple Alonso’s men. Borussia Monchengladbach are currently 12th and struggling. However, they have snatched plenty of points off the Bavarian giants in recent years.
Elsewhere on bettingexpert, Scott has put together a Heidenheim vs Dormund preview for the weekend ahead.
In this article:
Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, February 3rd, 14:30 (UK)
Bayern Munich have faced criticism in the last few weeks. There have been question marks around the long-term future of Thomas Tuchel, with the former Chelsea boss wanting reinforcements as the club braces itself for a crucial few months. Bayer gained ground on Bayer Leverkusen last weekend and are now just two points off the lead in the Bundesliga.
Tuchel’s side has the chance to go top, at least temporarily, here. However, they have a poor record against Monchengladbach in recent seasons. They have won just one of the last seven head-to-heads. Over that period, Bayern are scoring an average of one goal per game but conceding 2.14. Both teams have scored in six of the last seven meetings between these sides, and there has been an average of 3.71 goals.
Both teams have scored in eight of Monchengladbach’s nine Bundesliga away matches, and there has been an average of 4.56 goals. As a result, I’m betting both teams to score over 2.5 goals in this match.
Bayern’s recent record against Monchengladbach may be poor, but this is a golden opportunity for them to apply the pressure to Xabi Alonso’s men in the race for the title.
Thomas Tuchel’s side have been exceptional at the Allianz Arena this season. They have won eight of their ten league matches on home turf. The sole defeat came against Werder Bremen in January, which sparked a media inquest. Despite the recent setback, Bayern are averaging 3.4 goals per home game and have the firepower to get the job done here.
Monchengladbach have picked up just one away win in the league this season. This was against Bochum at the end of September. Their defensive woes have been more apparent on the road, and it has had a detrimental impact on results. They have conceded three or more in six of those away matches, so while they are capable of scoring, Harry Kane and company could make mince meat of their defence.
The bookmakers are expecting Bayern to grab a hatful of goals here, and Harry Kane’s price of 1.40 to score at any time in the match reflects that. Therefore, our focus in the player market shifts to the other players at Tuchel’s disposal.
Bayern have relied on goals from deeper positions in recent weeks. Jamal Musiala scored a brace in their first game back after the winter break. The youngster has the 4th highest xG in the Bayern squad and has been able to contribute in a number of positions. Musiala has played on both flanks and as a number 10. He should prove to be a handful regardless of where he is deployed here.
Jamal is the team’s 3rd highest scored, behind Harry Kane and Leroy Sane. He’s scored five goals this season and has linked up well with Kane. Musiala hasn’t been afraid to shoot and is averaging 2.1 shots per 90 minutes played. He should have some joy against Monchengladbach’s lacklustre defence.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:07, January 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Thomas Tuchel has had to contend with several injuries in this campaign. Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman are missing in attack. Joshua Kimmich has a shoulder injury, so they shouldn’t feature here. Konrad Laimer is also out of the reckoning. Further injuries to Saww, Mazraoui and Dayot Upamecano mean that Bayern are down to barebones in certain areas.
Alassane Plea is Borussia Monchengladbach’s top scorer this season, but he is a doubt for this fixture. He has a bruised metatarsal and didn’t feature in his team’s last match. Mamadou Doucoure, Lukas Ullrich and Patrick Herman are also unavailable. Gerardo Seoane will likely name an unchanged team from the side that earned a draw in Leverkusen.
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Bundesliga table by using the plethora of underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAME | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 26.0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 96.1 | 28.9 | 67.3 | 82.4 |
2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 25.3 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 85.5 | 29.9 | 55.6 | 81.9 |
3 | Stuttgart | 34 | 20.6 | 4.0 | 9.4 | 73.6 | 41.6 | 32.0 | 65.8 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19.2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 73.6 | 40.4 | 33.2 | 63.7 |
5 | Dortmund | 34 | 16.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 69.7 | 51.5 | 18.2 | 59.0 |
6 | Freiburg | 34 | 14.0 | 7.7 | 12.3 | 48.1 | 52.9 | -4.8 | 49.8 |
7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 51.3 | 47.8 | 3.5 | 48.6 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 14.7 | 61.0 | 64.8 | -3.8 | 45.5 |
9 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 16.1 | 42.5 | 54.6 | -12.1 | 40.5 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 14.8 | 46.8 | 56.1 | -9.2 | 40.3 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 47.4 | 60.3 | -12.9 | 39.8 |
12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 15.4 | 58.8 | 67.9 | -9.1 | 39.5 |
13 | Bochum | 34 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 42.8 | 62.0 | -19.1 | 39.2 |
14 | Heidenheim | 34 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 17.1 | 46.5 | 68.2 | -21.6 | 36.3 |
15 | Union Berlin | 34 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 18.6 | 38.9 | 59.1 | -20.2 | 34.5 |
16 | Mainz | 34 | 7.1 | 12.1 | 14.8 | 34.7 | 52.1 | -17.4 | 33.3 |
17 | FC Koln | 34 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 20.1 | 29.7 | 67.1 | -37.4 | 25.3 |
18 | Darmstadt | 34 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 20.9 | 37.9 | 80.1 | -42.2 | 22.9 |
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