football | Friday, November 11, 2022 11:18 AM (Revised at: Saturday, November 12, 2022 11:57 AM)

Best Prop Bets in the Premier League this Weekend: 3 Value Picks for the Shot Market

Scott Thornton

Weekend Prop Best Bets: Saturday, November 12th

It’s the final matchday before the World Cup and Premier League sides will be looking to head into the break on a positive note. Many teams are jostling for position up and down the league. Going into this period outside the relegation or in European qualification places could be a huge psychological advantage. We could see some nervy moments so I’m looking at the shots market this week.

In this article:

Shots Market Preview
Bournemouth vs Everton Preview & Best Bet
Newcastle vs Chelsea Preview & Best Bet
Fulham vs Man Utd Preview & Best Bet

Shots Market Preview

The season has settled down so now it’s easier to identify the value in the shots market. We can use the data from the season so far and a betting model to assess this weekend’s value. The model factors in a team’s recent form, quality of opposition, averages over longer periods and the meetings between the sides.

The number of shots a team has can be quite unpredictable. Goals change games, especially early on, but this method has proven to be profitable long term.

Bournemouth vs Everton Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, November 12th, 15:00 (UK)

These teams met in the League Cup on Tuesday night. Bournemouth were 4-1 victors on the night, but the league meetings seldom play out like the cup.

Everton have five defeats in their last seven matches in all competitions. Lampard’s men were on an impressive unbeaten run, but the wheels have come off slightly in recent weeks. The World Cup break will be welcomed by the Toffees; who will use the time to regroup and improve.

Bournemouth are enduring struggles of their own. They have lost their last four league matches and are without a win in five. They are a point clear of the relegation zone heading into the weekend. They will be keen to ensure they remain out of the bottom three by beating Everton on Saturday.

Bournemouth vs Everton Best Bet

Bournemouth had 12 shots in the midweek meeting between the sides, and they should be at full tilt from the off here. The 4-1 win will have given them confidence. The Cherries average just eight shots per game at home in the league, but they should exceed this mark on Saturday.

Everton have been conceding a heap of shots away from home. Their opponents are averaging 18.43 shots per game across the seven away matches they’ve played. No team has had fewer than 12 shots in those matches.

Bournemouth over 10.5 shots looks a good bet here. This looks even more appealing after the scoreline midweek.

Selection: Bournemouth Over 10.5 Shots (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.75 (Unibet)
Stakes: 8/10

More Bournemouth vs Everton Tips

Newcastle vs Chelsea Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, November 12th, 15:00 (UK)

This game could have huge implications in the race for the top 4. Newcastle are competing for a Champions League place and they have only lost one game all season. The Magpies have shown they can match any team in the division. Only Liverpool have come away with three points against Eddie Howe’s men. This was thanks to a late injury-time winner. They will be relishing the opportunity of facing a wounded Chelsea on Saturday.

Graham Potter’s tenure had started so brightly, but the 4-1 defeat to Brighton has sparked a bit of a spiral. Chelsea have dropped out of the top four. Defeat on Saturday would see them drop nine points behind Newcastle. The Blues are four league games without a win. Potter will be keen to alleviate the pressure prior to the break.

Newcastle vs Chelsea Best Bet

Newcastle have had plenty of shots at St. James’ Park this season. They are averaging 18.57 per game shots there in the league. They have only failed to hit the required mark for this bet to land. This came when they had 12 against Man City. This was despite the fact they led the game at halftime.

Chelsea aren’t a side known for conceding chances. Their opponents are averaging just short of 10 shots per game this season, but this has increased in recent matches. Brighton had 19 shots in Chelsea’s last away game. Aston Villa also managed 18 when the Potter’s men made the trip in mid-October.

Selection: Newcastle Over 13.5 Shots (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.00 (bet365)
Stakes: 7/10

More Newcastle vs Chelsea Tips

Fulham vs Man Utd Preview

England, Premier League, Saturday, November 12th, 15:00 (UK)

Marco Silva’s side have made a solid start on their return to the Premier League. They have only lost one game at the Craven Cottage and they are in the top half of the table. Fulham haven’t beaten Man United in their last 20 meetings. This dates back to 2010. The London side could move to within a point of United if they win this weekend.

Man United’s squad has looked thin for a number of weeks and they don’t possess an attacking threat from the bench. Erik Ten Hag will be reasonably happy with his first few months in charge provided his team wins on Sunday. However, there are still many issues that need to be addressed.

Fulham vs Man Utd Best Bet

Fulham’s opponents at the Craven Cottage are averaging just 11.57 shots per game this season. The only team to go there and exceed 13 shots is Newcastle. Klopp’s Liverpool had just 11 shots on their visit, and United don’t possess the same attacking threat.

Ten Hag’s side have struggled to create chances since they played Tottenham. They have scored just one in each of their three league matches since. United are averaging 11.43 shots per game away from Old Trafford in the league. Backing them to have 14 shots or fewer looks a good bet here.