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football | Thursday, November 17, 2022 1:14 PM (Revised at: Saturday, November 19, 2022 11:46 AM)
BETSiE Predicts....The 2022 World Cup: Best Bets for 13 Outright Markets
Andrew Brocker
8
Who will win the 2022 World Cup? Which nation is favourite? What are the chances England can go all the way? Which nations will surprise?
In this article:
- BETSiE World Cup Projections
- Outright Winner Best Bets
- Group Winner Best Bets
- Knockout Qualification Best Bets
- Fail to Qualify for Knockout Stage Best Bets
- Finish Last in Group Best Bets
- Eliminated in Round of 16 Best Bets
- Reach Quarter Finals Best Bets
- Eliminated in Quarter Finals Best Bets
- Reach Semi Finals Best Bets
- Eliminated in Semi Finals Best Bets
- Reach World Cup Final Best Bets
- World Cup Runner Up Best Bets
- Group Points Over Under Best Bets
BETSiE 2022 World Cup Projections
Download Full List of BETSiE World Cup Outright Market Best Bets Excel Sheet
We launched Premier League BETSiE back in August. If you’re not familiar with how it works, you can read a detailed explainer here.
While forecasting domestic football leagues is difficult enough, international football tournaments come with their own unique challenges.
Firstly, a tournament such as the World Cup is played every four years. Much can change from one tournament to the next. Yes, nations play plenty of international football in the intervening years. But even the most serious of tournaments such as the European championship and Copa America are traditionally played two years prior to the World Cup brief tournaments and alone can not provide an accurate assessment of each nation’s potential. Even qualification matches provide limited insight with many nations qualifying early and often against far inferior opponents.
Secondly, there is the challenge of assessing the potential of nations from different confederations. European (UEFA) and South American (CONMEBOL) nations have dominated international football. How do we statistically compare the form of, say, Argentina or England qualifying through South America and Europe, with nations such as Senegal and Iran qualifying comfortably through Africa and Asia?
Further, there are issues such as assessing host nation advantage, the impact of weather conditions on nations unfamiliar with such conditions, the randomness of the draw, not to mention the irregular nature of the 2022 World Cup itself, being held in the middle of domestic league play.
There are a number of approaches that can be taken to tackle these issues. Sophisticated models have taken into account not only match results in competitive international football games, but also assessing each squad based on the form of the squad members in the domestic leagues in which they compete as well as the value of each squad in the transfer market.
My ratings have not taken such things into account. I have included performance in competitive international football matches, then adjusting each based on the historical performance of each confederation at recent World Cups.
Here are the ratings for each nation heading into the World Cup:
| Nation | xG FOR | xG AGAINST | xG DIFFERENTIAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 1.92 | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| Argentina | 1.81 | 0.78 | 1.03 |
| France | 1.82 | 0.80 | 1.02 |
| Netherlands | 1.86 | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| Spain | 1.77 | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| England | 1.69 | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| Portugal | 1.67 | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| Germany | 1.73 | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| Belgium | 1.71 | 0.98 | 0.73 |
| Denmark | 1.42 | 0.97 | 0.44 |
| Uruguay | 1.33 | 1.05 | 0.28 |
| Croatia | 1.32 | 1.08 | 0.24 |
| Poland | 1.21 | 1.21 | 0.01 |
| Mexico | 1.17 | 1.18 | -0.01 |
| USA | 1.18 | 1.30 | -0.11 |
| Switzerland | 1.16 | 1.28 | -0.12 |
| Senegal | 1.08 | 1.25 | -0.17 |
| Ecuador | 1.11 | 1.30 | -0.19 |
| Wales | 1.07 | 1.28 | -0.21 |
| Serbia | 1.14 | 1.34 | -0.21 |
| Morocco | 0.99 | 1.38 | -0.39 |
| South Korea | 0.93 | 1.44 | -0.51 |
| Japan | 1.03 | 1.55 | -0.52 |
| Ghana | 0.90 | 1.44 | -0.54 |
| Iran | 0.88 | 1.45 | -0.57 |
| Canada | 0.97 | 1.56 | -0.59 |
| Qatar | 0.91 | 1.54 | -0.64 |
| Tunisia | 0.83 | 1.54 | -0.71 |
| Australia | 0.87 | 1.63 | -0.76 |
| Cameroon | 0.77 | 1.56 | -0.79 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.79 | 1.82 | -1.02 |
| Costa Rica | 0.63 | 1.78 | -1.14 |
Using these ratings I have then simulated the World Cup tournament 100,000 times.
And here’s the probabilities for each nation through each stage of the tournament:
BETSiE 2022 World Cup Simulation Probabilities
Most forecasts have Brazil winning the World Cup and BETSiE sees Brazil as the favourites heading to Qatar.
Where BETSiE differs from most prognostications is the performance of the Netherlands, with the nation ranking second in favouritism. While they rank below Brazil, France and Argentina in the pre tournament ratings, the Dutch enjoy a privileged draw. They will face Senegal, Ecuador and Qatar in their group before facing second place of Group B featuring England, USA, Wales and Iran. With the Netherlands heading into the tournament at odds of 15.0, they are the value bet of the outright winner market.
But where else is the value?
Well, there is plenty to be found. But a word before we wade into the murky water of World Cup outright betting. If you’re not prepared to put your money down on some ugly ugly underdogs, featuring players you’ve never heard of playing against nations you probably can’t accurately locate on a map, then perhaps it’s best to stop here.
On the other hand, if you’re ready to get funky, let’s get funky.
I have identified 148 value bets across 13 outright betting markets for this World Cup. Each of the bets is based on the best odds available at the time of writing. I have set aside a betting bank of 1000 units with each bet assigned a proportioned stake based on the Kelly Criterion, essentially scaling stake size by value and the odds taken. So if we see stakes of 20 for example, it essentially means 2% of total betting bank assigned to the World Cup.
I will list the biggest bets for each market throughout the article, but if you would like to dig into the full list of 148 best bets, you can view them via this link.
BETSiE 2022 World Cup Best Bets
I will also be updating the probabilities throughout the tournament, as well as providing detailed match by projections.
And I have written ten articles identifying historical World Cup betting trends. You can check them out on the bettingexpert News World Cup hub.
For now, let’s get into the odds. Oh what a time to be alive.
World Cup Outright Winner Best Bets
So let’s begin at the pointy end of the tournament. Who will win the 2022 World Cup?
Below are the probabilities for each competing nation, the best odds available at time of writing and a value rating for each.
At the front of the market, the Netherlands are the value bet, with slight value for both Germany and Portugal. While many forecasts see Brazil and Argentina firmer in the betting than does BETSiE. I am more than happy to see the value identified in the ‘midtable’ of the tournament.
Biggest bets in the Outright Winner market:
- Netherlands to win World Cup @ odds 15.0, stakes 13.7
Table 1: World Cup outright winner value bets
| Nation | Win World Cup | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1.3% | 251.0 | HIGH |
| USA | 1.1% | 226.0 | HIGH |
| Mexico | 1.1% | 201.0 | HIGH |
| Ecuador | 0.8% | 251.0 | HIGH |
| Netherlands | 11.7% | 15.0 | HIGH |
| Wales | 0.6% | 226.0 | MODERATE |
| Belgium | 6.7% | 20.0 | MODERATE |
| Switzerland | 1.0% | 131.0 | MODERATE |
| Croatia | 2.2% | 61.0 | MODERATE |
| Uruguay | 2.5% | 51.0 | MODERATE |
| Denmark | 3.5% | 34.0 | MODERATE |
| Japan | 0.3% | 426.0 | SMALL |
| Iran | 0.2% | 701.0 | SMALL |
| Portugal | 6.6% | 17.0 | SMALL |
| South Korea | 0.2% | 551.0 | SMALL |
| Senegal | 0.8% | 131.0 | MINIMAL |
| Serbia | 0.8% | 126.0 | MINIMAL |
| Germany | 8.2% | 12.5 | MINIMAL |
| Canada | 0.2% | 501.0 | MINIMAL |
| Morocco | 0.3% | 301.0 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | 9.2% | 10.0 | NO VALUE |
| France | 10.7% | 8.3 | NO VALUE |
| England | 7.6% | 10.5 | NO VALUE |
| Qatar | 0.2% | 501.0 | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | 0.1% | 901.0 | NO VALUE |
| Ghana | 0.1% | 501.0 | NO VALUE |
| Australia | 0.1% | 701.0 | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | 12.5% | 5.0 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | 9.5% | 6.6 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 901.0 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | 0.0% | 551.0 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 0.0% | 1001.0 | NO VALUE |
World Cup Group Winner Best Bets
Group play and we see a number of teams providing some value. Once again we see the Netherlands feature, but also surprisingly we see Brazil and Spain offering some value.
Elsewhere, Denmark are a decent wager to get over France in Group D with Iran the best outsider of the group stage, at odds of 21.0 to win Group B.
Biggest bets of the Group Winner market:
- Brazil to win Group G @ odds 1.44, stakes 41.5
- Netherlands to win Group A @ odds 1.51, stakes 32.0
- Denmark to win Group D @ odds 4.0, stakes 15.5
- Spain to win Group E @ odds 2.0, stakes 14.1
Table 2: World Cup group winner value bets
| Nation | Group | Win Group | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | D | 29.6% | 4.00 | SMALL |
| Iran | B | 5.6% | 21.00 | SMALL |
| Brazil | G | 74.4% | 1.44 | SMALL |
| Netherlands | A | 70.5% | 1.51 | SMALL |
| Spain | E | 52.8% | 2.00 | SMALL |
| USA | B | 14.9% | 7.00 | MINIMAL |
| Morocco | F | 8.7% | 12.00 | MINIMAL |
| Belgium | F | 57.3% | 1.81 | MINIMAL |
| Portugal | H | 57.6% | 1.73 | NO VALUE |
| Croatia | F | 28.1% | 3.50 | NO VALUE |
| South Korea | H | 7.0% | 14.00 | NO VALUE |
| Poland | C | 15.0% | 6.50 | NO VALUE |
| France | D | 64.6% | 1.50 | NO VALUE |
| England | B | 67.2% | 1.44 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | C | 68.8% | 1.40 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | E | 41.9% | 2.28 | NO VALUE |
| Uruguay | H | 29.1% | 3.10 | NO VALUE |
| Ghana | H | 6.3% | 14.00 | NO VALUE |
| Switzerland | G | 12.4% | 7.00 | NO VALUE |
| Mexico | C | 14.5% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Wales | B | 12.3% | 7.00 | NO VALUE |
| Ecuador | A | 12.3% | 7.00 | NO VALUE |
| Qatar | A | 4.8% | 17.00 | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | D | 3.0% | 26.00 | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | G | 10.4% | 7.50 | NO VALUE |
| Canada | F | 6.0% | 13.00 | NO VALUE |
| Senegal | A | 12.4% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Australia | D | 2.8% | 26.00 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | G | 2.8% | 26.00 | NO VALUE |
| Japan | E | 4.6% | 15.00 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | E | 0.8% | 71.00 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | C | 1.7% | 29.00 | NO VALUE |
Qualify for Knockout Stage (Reach Round of 16)
Not a great deal of value to be found in the qualification market. There are a number of nations offering minimal value with only two worthy of a wager, those being Denmark, and yes, that’s right, first timer and host nation, Qatar..
Biggest bets for the Knockout Stage Qualification market
- Denmark to qualify @ odds 1.36, stakes 35.6
- Qatar to qualify @ odds 5.50, stakes 10.7
Table 3: World Cup knockout stage qualification value bets
| Nation | Group | Qualify | Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | A | 21.61% | 5.50 | SMALL |
| Denmark | D | 77.23% | 1.36 | SMALL |
| Iran | B | 23.17% | 4.50 | MINIMAL |
| Netherlands | A | 90.14% | 1.14 | MINIMAL |
| Brazil | G | 92.54% | 1.10 | MINIMAL |
| Spain | E | 89.22% | 1.14 | MINIMAL |
| Poland | C | 50.72% | 2.00 | MINIMAL |
| France | D | 91.65% | 1.10 | MINIMAL |
| Switzerland | G | 48.89% | 2.05 | MINIMAL |
| Portugal | H | 84.83% | 1.18 | MINIMAL |
| USA | B | 47.51% | 2.10 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | E | 85.22% | 1.17 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | F | 83.86% | 1.17 | NO VALUE |
| Uruguay | H | 67.55% | 1.45 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | C | 90.45% | 1.08 | NO VALUE |
| Wales | B | 40.92% | 2.38 | NO VALUE |
| England | B | 88.40% | 1.10 | NO VALUE |
| Croatia | F | 65.49% | 1.48 | NO VALUE |
| Morocco | F | 29.08% | 3.30 | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | D | 15.85% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | G | 42.53% | 2.20 | NO VALUE |
| South Korea | H | 24.86% | 3.75 | NO VALUE |
| Mexico | C | 48.79% | 1.91 | NO VALUE |
| Ecuador | A | 43.50% | 2.10 | NO VALUE |
| Japan | E | 20.23% | 4.50 | NO VALUE |
| Senegal | A | 44.75% | 2.00 | NO VALUE |
| Canada | F | 21.57% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Ghana | H | 22.76% | 3.75 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | E | 5.33% | 16.00 | NO VALUE |
| Australia | D | 15.27% | 5.50 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | C | 10.04% | 8.00 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | G | 16.04% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
To Not Qualify for Knockout Stage (Eliminated in Group Stage)
As with the qualification market, not a great deal is going on here. There are a number of nations offering a touch of value, however the only nation worth investing in is Senegal.
Biggest bets for the Fail to Reach Knockout Stage market:
- Senegal to not qualify @ odds 1.91, stakes 15.5
Table 4: World Cup fail to qualify for knockout stage value bets
| Nation | Group | Not Qualify | Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | A | 55.25% | 1.91 | SMALL |
| Serbia | G | 57.47% | 1.80 | MINIMAL |
| Wales | B | 59.08% | 1.73 | MINIMAL |
| Australia | D | 84.73% | 1.20 | MINIMAL |
| Cameroon | G | 83.96% | 1.20 | MINIMAL |
| Ghana | H | 77.24% | 1.29 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | E | 94.67% | 1.05 | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | D | 84.15% | 1.18 | NO VALUE |
| Mexico | C | 51.21% | 1.91 | NO VALUE |
| Ecuador | A | 56.50% | 1.73 | NO VALUE |
| South Korea | H | 75.14% | 1.30 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | F | 16.14% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Croatia | F | 34.51% | 2.80 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | C | 89.96% | 1.07 | NO VALUE |
| Japan | E | 79.77% | 1.20 | NO VALUE |
| Qatar | A | 78.39% | 1.22 | NO VALUE |
| Morocco | F | 70.92% | 1.33 | NO VALUE |
| Canada | F | 78.43% | 1.20 | NO VALUE |
| Iran | B | 76.83% | 1.22 | NO VALUE |
| England | B | 11.60% | 8.00 | NO VALUE |
| USA | B | 52.49% | 1.75 | NO VALUE |
| Denmark | D | 22.77% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Uruguay | H | 32.45% | 2.80 | NO VALUE |
| Poland | C | 49.28% | 1.80 | NO VALUE |
| Switzerland | G | 51.11% | 1.73 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | E | 14.78% | 5.50 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | C | 9.55% | 8.50 | NO VALUE |
| Portugal | H | 15.17% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
| France | D | 8.35% | 8.50 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | E | 10.78% | 6.50 | NO VALUE |
| Netherlands | A | 9.86% | 6.50 | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | G | 7.46% | 7.50 | NO VALUE |
Finish Last in Group Best Bets
Really love the value here. Especially Group B where we are basically betting on Iran by backing each rival nation in the group – England, USA and Wales – to finish last in the group. We are also backing heavily into Costa Rica to do a no show at this World Cup, taking them to finish last in Group E at short odds.
Biggest bets in the Finish Last in Group Market:
- Costa Rica to finish last in Group E @ odds 1.54, stakes 32.8
- Wales to finish last in Group B @ odds 5.0, stakes 22.1
- USA to finish last in Group B @ odds 6.0, stakes 17.7
Table 5: World Cup finish last in group value bets
| Nation | Group | Finish Last | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | H | 4.21% | 34.00 | MODERATE |
| USA | B | 22.47% | 6.00 | MODERATE |
| Wales | B | 26.93% | 5.00 | MODERATE |
| England | B | 3.16% | 41.00 | MODERATE |
| Costa Rica | E | 69.45% | 1.54 | SMALL |
| Ecuador | A | 24.64% | 4.33 | SMALL |
| Senegal | A | 23.67% | 4.50 | SMALL |
| Australia | D | 47.50% | 2.20 | MINIMAL |
| Cameroon | G | 56.41% | 1.80 | MINIMAL |
| Canada | F | 47.85% | 2.10 | MINIMAL |
| Uruguay | H | 10.93% | 9.00 | NO VALUE |
| Poland | C | 15.07% | 6.50 | NO VALUE |
| South Korea | H | 40.70% | 2.38 | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | D | 44.91% | 2.15 | NO VALUE |
| Switzerland | G | 19.13% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | F | 4.55% | 21.00 | NO VALUE |
| Ghana | H | 44.16% | 2.15 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | C | 67.81% | 1.40 | NO VALUE |
| Iran | B | 47.44% | 2.00 | NO VALUE |
| Croatia | F | 11.79% | 8.00 | NO VALUE |
| Qatar | A | 49.23% | 1.91 | NO VALUE |
| Mexico | C | 15.52% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | G | 22.84% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Morocco | F | 35.81% | 2.50 | NO VALUE |
| Netherlands | A | 2.46% | 34.00 | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | G | 1.62% | 51.00 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | C | 1.60% | 51.00 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | E | 2.40% | 34.00 | NO VALUE |
| Japan | E | 26.56% | 3.00 | NO VALUE |
| Denmark | D | 5.91% | 13.00 | NO VALUE |
| France | D | 1.68% | 41.00 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | E | 1.59% | 41.00 | NO VALUE |
Eliminated in Round of 16 Best Bets
Ok, we’re into knockout stage betting. This is where we get busy. There are plenty of opportunities in the Round of 16 elimination market. And we’re looking to oppose some of the tournament favourites here.
Biggest bets for the Eliminated in Round of 16 market:
- Argentina to be eliminated in Round of 16 @ odds 5.25, stakes 54.1
- France to be eliminated in Round of 16 @ odds 5.50, stakes 48.8
- England to be eliminated in Round of 16 @ odds 4.0, stakes 31.1
- Denmark to be eliminated in Round of 16 @ odds 3.25, stakes 31.0
Table 6: World Cup eliminated in Round of 16 value bets
| Nation | Elim. Rnd of 16 | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 36.24% | 5.25 | HIGH |
| France | 33.85% | 5.50 | HIGH |
| England | 34.16% | 4.00 | MODERATE |
| Spain | 33.80% | 4.00 | MODERATE |
| Brazil | 30.91% | 4.33 | MODERATE |
| Denmark | 39.20% | 3.25 | MODERATE |
| Belgium | 40.95% | 2.88 | SMALL |
| Qatar | 14.59% | 8.00 | SMALL |
| Iran | 16.37% | 7.00 | SMALL |
| Germany | 33.60% | 3.25 | SMALL |
| Portugal | 34.87% | 2.88 | MINIMAL |
| Netherlands | 29.49% | 3.40 | MINIMAL |
| Switzerland | 28.34% | 3.50 | NO VALUE |
| Uruguay | 35.76% | 2.75 | NO VALUE |
| Croatia | 38.69% | 2.50 | NO VALUE |
| Poland | 30.44% | 3.00 | NO VALUE |
| Senegal | 26.67% | 3.40 | NO VALUE |
| Wales | 25.70% | 3.50 | NO VALUE |
| Ecuador | 25.63% | 3.50 | NO VALUE |
| Japan | 12.81% | 7.00 | NO VALUE |
| Mexico | 29.88% | 3.00 | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | 24.90% | 3.60 | NO VALUE |
| USA | 27.32% | 3.25 | NO VALUE |
| Morocco | 20.33% | 4.20 | NO VALUE |
| Ghana | 16.21% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
| South Korea | 17.35% | 4.50 | NO VALUE |
| Canada | 15.56% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | 11.61% | 6.50 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | 7.74% | 9.50 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | 11.71% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Australia | 11.05% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 4.27% | 12.00 | NO VALUE |
Reach the Quarter Finals Best Bets
A lot of value when it comes to reaching the quarter finals, though most of the value is slight even at best odds available. Iran is the best value of the lot, though due to their odds, stakes will be quite slight for them to reach the World Cup quarter finals.
Biggest bets for reaching the Quarter Finals market:
- Netherlands to reach quarter finals @ odds 1.80, stakes 29.2
- Denmark to reach quarter finals @ odds 3.0, stakes 18
- Poland to reach quarter finals @ odds 7.0, stakes 17.8
- Croatia to reach quarter finals @ odds 4.50, stakes 15.0
Table 7: World Cup reach quarter finals value bets
| Nation | Reach Qtr Finals | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 6.80% | 26.00 | HIGH |
| Qatar | 7.02% | 21.00 | MODERATE |
| Poland | 20.28% | 7.00 | MODERATE |
| Canada | 6.01% | 21.00 | MODERATE |
| Ecuador | 17.87% | 7.00 | MODERATE |
| Tunisia | 4.24% | 29.00 | MODERATE |
| Mexico | 18.91% | 6.50 | MODERATE |
| Morocco | 8.75% | 14.00 | MODERATE |
| Australia | 4.22% | 29.00 | MODERATE |
| Croatia | 26.80% | 4.50 | MODERATE |
| Denmark | 38.03% | 3.00 | SMALL |
| South Korea | 7.51% | 15.00 | SMALL |
| Cameroon | 4.33% | 26.00 | SMALL |
| Ghana | 6.55% | 17.00 | SMALL |
| USA | 20.19% | 5.50 | SMALL |
| Netherlands | 60.65% | 1.80 | SMALL |
| Uruguay | 31.79% | 3.40 | SMALL |
| Wales | 15.22% | 7.00 | SMALL |
| Serbia | 17.63% | 6.00 | SMALL |
| Japan | 7.42% | 14.00 | MINIMAL |
| Switzerland | 20.55% | 5.00 | MINIMAL |
| Portugal | 49.96% | 2.00 | NO VALUE |
| Senegal | 18.08% | 5.50 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | 55.42% | 1.73 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | 51.62% | 1.83 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | 42.91% | 2.20 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.30% | 41.00 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | 54.21% | 1.73 | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | 61.63% | 1.50 | NO VALUE |
| France | 57.80% | 1.57 | NO VALUE |
| England | 54.24% | 1.57 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 1.06% | 51.00 | NO VALUE |
Eliminated in Quarterfinals Best Bets
Decent number of bets to made in the eliminated in quarter finals market, but only a few at significant stakes.
Biggest bets for Eliminated in Quarter Finals market:
- Switzerland to be eliminated in quarter finals @ 13.0, stakes 14.3
Table 8: World Cup eliminated in quarter finals value bets
| Nation | Elim. Qtr Finals | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 12.86% | 13.00 | HIGH |
| Qatar | 4.83% | 34.00 | HIGH |
| Iran | 4.71% | 34.00 | HIGH |
| USA | 12.12% | 11.00 | MODERATE |
| Mexico | 10.90% | 11.00 | SMALL |
| Uruguay | 18.03% | 6.50 | SMALL |
| Poland | 11.38% | 10.00 | SMALL |
| Croatia | 14.67% | 7.50 | SMALL |
| Brazil | 25.23% | 4.33 | SMALL |
| Wales | 9.79% | 11.00 | SMALL |
| Denmark | 19.49% | 5.50 | SMALL |
| Tunisia | 3.10% | 34.00 | SMALL |
| Senegal | 11.54% | 9.00 | MINIMAL |
| Serbia | 11.24% | 9.00 | MINIMAL |
| Ecuador | 11.23% | 9.00 | MINIMAL |
| Ghana | 4.80% | 21.00 | MINIMAL |
| Argentina | 23.07% | 4.33 | NO VALUE |
| Netherlands | 24.89% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Portugal | 24.67% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Morocco | 5.69% | 17.00 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | 24.03% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | 22.06% | 4.35 | NO VALUE |
| France | 23.25% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Australia | 2.98% | 31.00 | NO VALUE |
| Canada | 3.99% | 23.00 | NO VALUE |
| South Korea | 5.28% | 17.00 | NO VALUE |
| Japan | 4.68% | 19.00 | NO VALUE |
| England | 25.06% | 3.50 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.69% | 51.00 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | 18.52% | 4.50 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | 3.40% | 19.00 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 0.82% | 67.00 | NO VALUE |
Reach Semi Finals Best Bets
As with the previous market, not a great deal of significant action when it comes to the reach semi finals market. Once again the Netherlands feature with Poland and Uruguay featuring among the most significant of wagers on this market.
Biggest bets for reach the semi finals market:
- Netherlands to reach semi finals @ odds 3.75, stakes 31.6
- Poland to reach semi finals @ odds 21.0, stakes 11.1
- Uruguay to reach semi finals @ odds 10.0, stakes 10.6
Table 9: World Cup reach semi finals value bets
| Nation | Reach Semi FInals | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | 2.19% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Iran | 2.09% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Poland | 8.90% | 21.00 | HIGH |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.61% | 301.00 | HIGH |
| Ghana | 1.75% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Mexico | 8.01% | 21.00 | HIGH |
| Canada | 2.02% | 81.00 | HIGH |
| Australia | 1.24% | 126.00 | HIGH |
| Tunisia | 1.14% | 126.00 | MODERATE |
| Wales | 5.43% | 26.00 | MODERATE |
| Japan | 2.74% | 51.00 | MODERATE |
| Ecuador | 6.64% | 21.00 | MODERATE |
| Uruguay | 13.76% | 10.00 | MODERATE |
| USA | 8.07% | 17.00 | MODERATE |
| Netherlands | 35.76% | 3.75 | MODERATE |
| Morocco | 3.06% | 41.00 | MODERATE |
| South Korea | 2.23% | 51.00 | SMALL |
| Denmark | 18.54% | 6.00 | SMALL |
| Croatia | 12.13% | 9.00 | SMALL |
| Portugal | 25.29% | 4.00 | MINIMAL |
| Switzerland | 7.69% | 13.00 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | 24.39% | 4.00 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | 29.56% | 3.25 | NO VALUE |
| France | 34.55% | 2.75 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | 31.39% | 3.00 | NO VALUE |
| Senegal | 6.54% | 14.00 | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | 6.39% | 14.00 | NO VALUE |
| England | 29.18% | 2.90 | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | 36.40% | 2.25 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | 31.14% | 2.63 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | 0.93% | 81.00 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 0.24% | 251.00 | NO VALUE |
Eliminated in Semi Finals Best Bets
We’re nearing the end now as we dig into the semi final elimination market. An interesting mix of teams here with value available on nations from Mexico and Denmark, to the likes of Saudi Arabia and Australia. However there are no bets of significant size, mostly due to the stature of the odds taken.
Biggest bets for Eliminated in the Semi Finals market:
- Mexico to be eliminated in the semi finals @ odds 34.0 stakes 5.3
- Denmark to be eliminated in the semi finals @ odds 11.0, stakes 3.4
Table 10: World Cup eliminated in semi finals value bets
| Nation | Elim. Semi Finals | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 1.49% | 126.00 | HIGH |
| Mexico | 4.97% | 34.00 | HIGH |
| Qatar | 1.55% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Ecuador | 4.19% | 31.00 | MODERATE |
| Ghana | 1.28% | 101.00 | MODERATE |
| Wales | 3.49% | 34.00 | SMALL |
| Croatia | 6.84% | 17.00 | SMALL |
| USA | 4.99% | 23.00 | SMALL |
| Canada | 1.41% | 81.00 | SMALL |
| Denmark | 10.31% | 11.00 | SMALL |
| Australia | 0.89% | 126.00 | SMALL |
| Poland | 5.31% | 21.00 | SMALL |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.43% | 251.00 | SMALL |
| Morocco | 2.08% | 51.00 | SMALL |
| South Korea | 1.58% | 67.00 | SMALL |
| Brazil | 15.06% | 7.00 | SMALL |
| Netherlands | 15.67% | 6.50 | MINIMAL |
| Switzerland | 4.84% | 21.00 | MINIMAL |
| Uruguay | 7.75% | 13.00 | MINIMAL |
| Spain | 14.23% | 7.00 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | 13.74% | 7.00 | NO VALUE |
| Japan | 1.85% | 51.00 | NO VALUE |
| England | 13.85% | 6.60 | NO VALUE |
| Portugal | 12.05% | 7.50 | NO VALUE |
| Senegal | 4.27% | 21.00 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | 14.04% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | 0.83% | 101.00 | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | 3.95% | 21.00 | NO VALUE |
| France | 14.96% | 5.50 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | 11.18% | 7.00 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 0.21% | 301.00 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | 0.71% | 81.00 | NO VALUE |
Reach World Cup Final Best Bets
So who are the value selections when it comes to reaching the World Cup final. A lot of value here with many less likely nations worth a nibble, while the Netherlands are once again the value at the front of the market along with Belgium.
Biggest bets for reach the final market:
- Netherlands to reach the final @ 7.50, stakes 19.9
- Belgium to reach the final @ 9.0, stakes 6.0
- Poland to reach the final @ 67.0, stakes 5.4
- Uruguay to reach the final @ 23.0, stakes 4.4
Table 11: World Cup reach final bets
| Nation | Reach FInals | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | 0.64% | 501.00 | HIGH |
| Iran | 0.60% | 401.00 | HIGH |
| Poland | 3.59% | 67.00 | HIGH |
| Ghana | 0.47% | 501.00 | HIGH |
| Ecuador | 2.45% | 81.00 | HIGH |
| Morocco | 0.98% | 201.00 | HIGH |
| Wales | 1.94% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Japan | 0.89% | 201.00 | HIGH |
| Australia | 0.35% | 501.00 | HIGH |
| South Korea | 0.65% | 251.00 | HIGH |
| USA | 3.08% | 51.00 | HIGH |
| Tunisia | 0.31% | 501.00 | HIGH |
| Mexico | 3.04% | 51.00 | HIGH |
| Canada | 0.61% | 251.00 | HIGH |
| Netherlands | 20.09% | 7.50 | HIGH |
| Uruguay | 6.01% | 23.00 | MODERATE |
| Serbia | 2.44% | 51.00 | MODERATE |
| Belgium | 13.21% | 9.00 | SMALL |
| Switzerland | 2.85% | 41.00 | SMALL |
| Senegal | 2.27% | 51.00 | SMALL |
| Denmark | 8.23% | 14.00 | SMALL |
| Croatia | 5.29% | 21.00 | SMALL |
| Portugal | 13.24% | 7.50 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | 15.82% | 6.00 | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.18% | 501.00 | NO VALUE |
| France | 19.59% | 4.50 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | 17.16% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | 17.10% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
| England | 15.33% | 5.00 | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | 21.34% | 3.50 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | 0.22% | 301.00 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 0.03% | 501.00 | NO VALUE |
World Cup Runner Up Best Bets
No bets of significant size here, but plenty of nibbles at long odds to be had. The best of the lot are Poland, USA, Mexico, Denmark, and yes, again, the Netherlands.
Biggest bets for World Cup runner up market:
- Poland to be runner up @ odds 101.0, stakes 3.3
- USA to be runner up @ odds 101.0, stakes 2.5
- Mexico to be runner up @ odds 101.0, stakes 2.5
- Netherlands to be runner up @ odds 13.0, stakes 2
Table 12: World Cup runner up value bets
| Nation | Runner Up | Best Odds | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 2.26% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| USA | 1.97% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Mexico | 1.96% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Morocco | 0.67% | 251.00 | HIGH |
| Ecuador | 1.64% | 101.00 | HIGH |
| Qatar | 0.49% | 301.00 | MODERATE |
| Ghana | 0.34% | 401.00 | MODERATE |
| Wales | 1.31% | 101.00 | MODERATE |
| Australia | 0.26% | 501.00 | MODERATE |
| Switzerland | 1.83% | 67.00 | MODERATE |
| Japan | 0.61% | 201.00 | MODERATE |
| Denmark | 4.70% | 26.00 | MODERATE |
| Uruguay | 3.52% | 34.00 | SMALL |
| Tunisia | 0.23% | 501.00 | SMALL |
| South Korea | 0.45% | 251.00 | SMALL |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.15% | 751.00 | SMALL |
| Netherlands | 8.41% | 13.00 | SMALL |
| Iran | 0.43% | 251.00 | SMALL |
| Croatia | 3.14% | 34.00 | SMALL |
| Canada | 0.41% | 251.00 | MINIMAL |
| Senegal | 1.49% | 67.00 | NO VALUE |
| Portugal | 6.68% | 13.00 | NO VALUE |
| Belgium | 6.49% | 13.00 | NO VALUE |
| Germany | 7.66% | 11.00 | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | 1.63% | 51.00 | NO VALUE |
| Spain | 7.97% | 10.00 | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | 8.82% | 9.00 | NO VALUE |
| France | 8.93% | 8.50 | NO VALUE |
| England | 7.71% | 9.60 | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | 7.63% | 9.00 | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | 0.18% | 251.00 | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | 0.03% | 501.00 | NO VALUE |
Group Points Over Under Best Bets
Let’s end by taking a look at the Group Points Over Under market. Nothing much to see here (which is pretty much why I left it to the end of the article). Minimal value for a few nations here, but only worth taking on Cameroon to go over 2.5 points.
Biggest bets for the Group Points Market:
- Cameroon Over 2.5 points @ odds 2.56, stakes 14.8
Table 1: World Cup group points over under value bets
| Nation | Group | Proj. Pts | Pts OU | Over | Under | Over Odds | Under Odds | Over Value | Under Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | A | 6.68 | 6.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% | 1.71 | 2.06 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Senegal | A | 3.71 | 3.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% | 1.68 | 2.12 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Ecuador | A | 3.67 | 3.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% | 1.73 | 2.03 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Qatar | A | 2.51 | 2.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.93 | 1.81 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| England | B | 6.49 | 6.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% | 1.76 | 1.99 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| USA | B | 3.84 | 3.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% | 1.65 | 2.17 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Wales | B | 3.57 | 3.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.80 | 1.94 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Iran | B | 2.61 | 2.5 | 51.8% | 48.2% | 1.82 | 1.99 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Argentina | C | 6.73 | 6.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% | 1.65 | 2.17 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Poland | C | 4.14 | 4.5 | 37.4% | 62.7% | 2.33 | 1.56 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Mexico | C | 4.1 | 4.5 | 36.6% | 63.4% | 2.45 | 1.52 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Saudi Arabia | C | 1.69 | 0.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% | 1.38 | 2.92 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| France | D | 6.69 | 6.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% | 1.61 | 2.24 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Denmark | D | 5.32 | 5.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% | 1.83 | 1.91 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Tunisia | D | 2.36 | 2.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% | 1.95 | 1.80 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Australia | D | 2.3 | 1.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% | 1.76 | 2.00 | MINIMAL | NO VALUE |
| Spain | E | 6.42 | 6.5 | 49.6% | 50.4% | 1.95 | 1.79 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Germany | E | 6.04 | 5.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% | 1.41 | 2.80 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Japan | E | 2.95 | 2.5 | 64.8% | 35.3% | 1.55 | 2.36 | MINIMAL | NO VALUE |
| Costa Rica | E | 1.44 | 2.5 | 28.5% | 71.6% | 2.61 | 1.46 | NO VALUE | MINIMAL |
| Belgium | F | 6.08 | 6.5 | 45.6% | 54.4% | 1.99 | 1.76 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Croatia | F | 4.8 | 4.5 | 51.4% | 48.7% | 1.87 | 1.87 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Morocco | F | 3.07 | 3.5 | 39.9% | 60.2% | 2.24 | 1.61 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Canada | F | 2.6 | 2.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% | 1.81 | 1.93 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Brazil | G | 6.95 | 6.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% | 1.51 | 2.46 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Switzerland | G | 3.89 | 3.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% | 1.67 | 2.13 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Serbia | G | 3.67 | 3.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 1.74 | 2.02 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Cameroon | G | 2.13 | 2.5 | 42.6% | 57.4% | 2.56 | 1.47 | SMALL | NO VALUE |
| Portugal | H | 6.14 | 6.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% | 2.09 | 1.79 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Uruguay | H | 4.89 | 4.5 | 53.1% | 47.0% | 1.70 | 2.07 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| South Korea | H | 2.79 | 2.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% | 1.75 | 2.15 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
| Ghana | H | 2.69 | 2.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% | 1.84 | 2.02 | NO VALUE | NO VALUE |
So that’s it. Are you still here? Yeah, quite a lot to work through. I know.
Clearly there are a few nations we’re hoping to outperform the market this World Cup (Oh god, Netherlands, please!!).
Likewise a number of nations we’re hoping underperform against the market.
Again, reminder, you can download the full list of 148 value bets across the 13 markets here.
Well, we made it. The speculation ends and the action begins this weekend. Whoever you’re betting on, good luck this World Cup and as always, gamble responsibly.
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