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football | Wednesday, August 3, 2022 11:24 AM (Revised at: Friday, August 5, 2022 1:54 PM)

BETSiE Predicts.....the Premier League Table 2022/23: Projected Points Totals For Each Premier League Club

BETSiE Predicts.....the Premier League Table 2022/23: Projected Points Totals For Each Premier League Club
ClassicStock / Alamy Stock Photo

Premier League season 2022/23 is (at time of writing) just two days, 11 hours, 29 minutes annnnnd 33 seconds away.

And if you’re reading this now, it’s sooner than that.

Or possibly later. If you’re reading this in May 2023, it’s likely due to a shameless retweet on behalf of myself or one of my 100k Twitter followers (that I will surely have by then), showcasing just how accurate (profitable) these projections were (are).

But for now, let’s assume you’re reading this in the present (the now, now) prior to the season kick off.

While I resist the sudden urge to turn this Premier League projections piece into a meditation on the glaring lack of sports based time travel movies…..

(Movie pitch – a film based on Brian Clough’s time as manager of Leeds Utd. Every time Clough fails to win the league with Leeds, he wakes again on the first day of his tenure and has to do it all over again until he achieves the ultimate success. But all is not as it seems. Cloughy learns that Billy Bremner is really a cyborg sent to the past to preserve a future in which Cloughy’s failure at Leeds ultimately leads to a dystopian hellscape in which Leeds United wins every European Super League title from 2025 until the end of time itself. Tentative working title: Clough is Enough)

….let’s get serious and turn to our Premier League projections for 2022/23.

In this article:


Introducing BETSiE

What is BETSiE? Or rather, who is BETSiE?

BETSiE…. (which stands for Betting…Event ….hmm Tipping….errr Synthetic…..Investment…………..Environment! That’ll do. If you have a better acronym let me know in the comments)

…is one half of the betting model I have developed and refined over the last 15 years.

She (BETSiE) essentially projects match probabilities for upcoming sports events, in the case of this article, the English Premier League. (The other half of the betting model? My expected value model, also known as x$. But more on that as the season progresses).


Predicting the 2022/23 Premier League Season

To project the entire Premier League, I began by calculating expected goals for each club in the league. While I suspect (admit) that my expected goals model is not as sophisticated (self righteous) as those developed and employed elsewhere, it has undergone many refinements over the years and has served me well.

For football, BETSiE includes the following (hardly surprising list of data):

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Annnnd (checking my notes), yup, no, that’s it. Goals. Shots. Shots on target. A fairly simple list of data readily available on various sites such as FBRef, WhoScored and ESPN

But not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value. This value is calculated by squaring the [REDACTED], multiplying the [REDACTED] by the mean of [REDACTED] with the final adjusted value the square root of [REDACTED]. Simple right?

No, BETSiE does not incorporate ‘xy coordinates’ or ‘pressure indexes’ or the mood the shot taker happened to be in when taking the shot. No, BETSiE just keeps it simple and plays her role.


BETSiE’s Premier League Club by Club Preseason Ratings

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against by their performance in these previous matches.

So, heading into the 2022/ 23 Premier League season, here are BETSiE’s expected goal ratings for each Premier League club.

CLUB Exp GF Exp GA Exp GD
Arsenal 1.707 1.259 +0.448
Aston Villa 1.294 1.423 -0.129
Bournemouth 0.961 1.778 -0.817
Brentford 1.074 1.582 -0.507
Brighton 1.159 1.395 -0.236
Chelsea 1.726 1.024 +0.702
Crystal Palace 1.118 1.358 -0.240
Everton 1.151 1.503 -0.353
Fulham 1.057 1.678 -0.620
Leeds 1.196 1.761 -0.565
Leicester 1.377 1.501 -0.124
Liverpool 2.192 0.916 +1.276
Manchester City 2.351 0.858 +1.494
Manchester Utd 1.748 1.242 +0.506
Newcastle 1.415 1.347 +0.068
Nottingham Forest 1.033 1.703 -0.669
Southampton 1.131 1.665 -0.534
Tottenham 1.835 1.099 +0.736
West Ham 1.346 1.454 -0.108
Wolverhampton 1.066 1.392 -0.326
AVERAGES 1.397 1.397 0.000

Once we have our expected goals for each club we can plug them into a Premier League fixture and predict scores for each game in the Premier League. Calculating these scores is rather simple once we have our expected goals.


Calculating Scores, Probabilities & Expected Points

An example: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

So for the opening match of the season we have Arsenal at Crystal Palace. The expected goal ratings for each club are…

CLUB Exp GF Exp GA Exp GD
Arsenal 1.707 1.259 0.448
Crystal Palace 1.118 1.358 -0.240
LEAGUE AVERAGE 1.397 1.397 0.000

First we determine each club’s attack and defensive power rating. We do this by dividing each by the league average. Doing so gives us the following power ratings for each club.

CLUB Attack Power Defence Power Home / AWAY Ave
Arsenal 1.222 0.901 1.251
Crystal Palace 0.800 0.972 1.543

An attack power rating above 1 is better than average. A defensive power rating less than 1 is better than average.

Then we simply multiply each team’s attack power rating by the opposing club’s defensive power rating and then by the league average for home (Crystal Palace) and by the league average for away (Arsenal).

(Determining the value of home advantage is a vexing topic. I have simply taken the average expected goals advantage for home clubs through the 2021/22 season. I will turn to the topic of home field advantage in future articles.)

So once we make these calculations, we get a predicted score for the Crystal Palace vs Arsenal match of:

CLUB Predicted Score
Arsenal 1.49
Crystal Palace 1.11

Once we have our predicted scores, we calculate match probabilities using Poisson distribution. Essentially Poisson calculates the probability of an event occurring once we know the mean rate.

So for example, if we expect Arsenal to score on average 1.4852 goals in Friday night’s match, we can use Poisson to calculate the likelihood that they will score, 0, 1, 2, 3 etc.

Once we calculate the likelihood for each club to score a given number of goals we can combine them to determine the likelihood of each possible scoreline in the match, Arsenal to win 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 etc. Add up the likelihoods for all Arsenal winning score combinations and we have the likelihood of Arsenal winning the game. We do the same for all Crystal Palace score lines and all possible Drawn matches.

Yes, over the years a number of issues have been raised regarding Poisson’s ability to predict football match probabilities accurately. I am not going to get deep in the weeds on that issue now. And personally, I think most of it is overly pedantic bish.

Once we have our probabilities, we can calculate expected points for each team.

We do so by calculating the probability of an outcome by the points on offer for that outcome. So we have Arsenal as 45.75% chances of winning. Given there are 3 points on offer for win, we multiply the 3 points by the probability of Arsenal winning (45.75%) and we get 1.372 points. We multiply the chance of a draw (25.86%) by the 1 point on offer for a drawn result. We get 0.259 points. Add them and Arsenal’s expected points total for the game is 1.631.

CLUB Predicted Score Win Probability Expected Points
Arsenal 1.49 45.75% 1.631
Crystal Palace 1.11 28.39% 1.110
Draw 25.86%

Add up each club’s expected points through each match of the season and bang, BETSiE projects the Premier League table.


BETSiE’S Premier League Table Projection

So running through each of the 380 matches scheduled for the 2022/23 Premier League season, BETSiE has Man City winning the league by roughly 4 points from Liverpool.

Yes, I know. Shocking!

Currently BETSiE only projects team points. In the future, I will be developing her to run season simulations and calculate probabilities for the full series of outright betting markets.

Pos. Club Games W D L GF GA Points
1 Manchester City 38 26.9 6.3 4.8 91.2 31.4 87.1
2 Liverpool 38 25.4 6.9 5.8 84.8 33.8 82.9
3 Tottenham 38 21 8.1 8.9 70.5 41.1 71.2
4 Chelsea 38 20.7 8.5 8.8 66.5 38.4 70.7
5 Manchester Utd 38 19.1 8.3 10.6 66.8 46.6 65.5
6 Arsenal 38 18.6 8.5 11 65.2 47.3 64.2
7 Newcastle 38 15.2 9.1 13.7 53.9 51.2 54.7
8 West Ham 38 13.8 9 15.2 51 55.4 50.3
9 Leicester 38 13.7 8.9 15.4 52.1 57.1 50.1
10 Aston Villa 38 13.5 9.2 15.3 49.1 54.3 49.6
11 Brighton 38 12.3 9.5 16.1 44 53.5 46.5
12 Crystal Palace 38 12.2 9.7 16.1 42.5 52.1 46.2
13 Wolverhampton 38 11.4 9.7 16.9 40.5 53.6 43.9
14 Everton 38 11.5 9.2 17.2 43.6 57.7 43.8
15 Brentford 38 10.3 9.1 18.6 40.5 60.8 40
16 Southampton 38 10.3 8.8 18.8 42.5 63.9 39.8
17 Leeds 38 10.4 8.5 19.1 44.8 67.4 39.7
18 Fulham 38 9.6 8.8 19.6 39.8 64.6 37.6
19 Nottingham Forest 38 9.2 8.8 20 38.8 65.6 36.4
20 Bournemouth 38 8.1 8.5 21.3 36 68.7 32.9

Comparing BETSiE to other Premier League Forecasts

So where does BETSiE differ from other Premier League projections? And what are her best bets for the upcoming season in the projected team points markets? Let’s take a look.

Pos. Club BETSIE Five38 EuroClub bet365 Pinnacle Unibet
1 Manchester City 87.1 85 85 89 89.5 87.5
2 Liverpool 82.9 80 88 85 85.5 83.5
3 Tottenham 71.2 66 62 74 69.5 70.5
4 Chelsea 70.7 72 74 73 71.5 71.5
5 Manchester Utd 65.5 57 61 66 65.5 65.5
6 Arsenal 64.2 61 63 65 64.5 65.5
7 Newcastle 54.7 47 46 55 55.5 57.5
8 West Ham 50.3 50 53 52 51.5 50.5
9 Leicester 50.1 51 54 51 51.5 50.5
10 Aston Villa 49.6 54 43 50 48.5 49.5
11 Brighton 46.5 54 46 48 48.5 47.5
12 Crystal Palace 46.2 50 45 48 46.5 45.5
13 Wolverhampton 43.9 46 46 43 44.5 44.5
14 Everton 43.8 42 43 43 44.5 44.5
15 Brentford 40 48 40 38 40.5 40.5
16 Southampton 39.8 40 41 38 39.5 40.5
17 Leeds 39.7 41 41 38 41.5 41.5
18 Fulham 37.6 36 37 38 35.5 35.5
19 Nottingham Forest 36.4 35 36 38 33.5 33.5
20 Bournemouth 32.9 36 37 33 32.5 30.5

Odds as at 4pm August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Firstly, bare in mind that the projections listed for bet365, Pinnacle and Unibet are not in all cases even money lines. The over under odds in many cases have either shortened or drifted.

In the case of bet365, you can bet on over a given number, under a given number or for the points total to land on a middle bracket.


Where Does BETSiE See the Value?

Premier League Points Totals Betting

According to BETSiE, the best points totals over under bets are the following:

Club Bet Bookmaker Odds
Arsenal Under 64.5 points Pinnacle 2.41
Bournemouth Over 30.5 points Unibet 1.85
Newcastle Under 57.5 points Unibet 1.90
Nottingham Forest Over 33.5 points Pinnacle 1.81

Odds as at 4pm August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Premier League Handicap Betting

Below I have taken the BETSiE points projections for each club and added the season points total handicaps from Betfred, bet365, BetVictor and Boylesports. Bare in mind also that while most bookmakers offer odds of 16.0 or 17.0 on each number, some bookmakers have fluctuating odds.

Pos. Club BETSiE Betfred bet365 BetVictor Boylesports
1 Manchester City 87.1 87.1 87.1 87.1 87.1
2 Liverpool 82.9 86.9 86.9 86.9 86.9
3 Tottenham 71.2 85.2 85.2 83.2 85.2
4 Chelsea 70.7 85.7 85.7 82.7 85.7
5 Manchester Utd 65.5 85.5 84.5 83.5 83.5
6 Arsenal 64.2 85.2 84.2 84.2 84.2
7 Newcastle 54.7 84.7 85.7 82.7 85.7
8 West Ham 50.3 82.3 83.3 80.3 83.3
9 Leicester 50.1 86.1 86.1 84.1 86.1
10 Aston Villa 49.6 85.6 86.6 83.6 85.6
11 Brighton 46.5 86.5 85.5 82.5 86.5
12 Crystal Palace 46.2 88.2 87.2 86.2 87.2
13 Wolverhampton 43.9 87.9 87.9 83.9 87.9
14 Everton 43.8 87.8 87.8 83.8 87.8
15 Brentford 40 86 86 84 86
16 Southampton 39.8 85.8 85.8 83.8 85.8
17 Leeds 39.7 85.7 85.7 83.7 85.7
18 Fulham 37.6 86.6 87.6 83.6 87.6
19 Nottingham Forest 36.4 87.4 87.4 84.4 87.4
20 Bournemouth 32.9 86.9 88.9 84.9 88.9

There a few clubs offering value here. The best of the bunch for me are:

Club Bet Bookmaker Odds
Crystal Palace +42 points Betfred 16.00
Bournemouth +56 points Boylesports 17.00
Wolverhampton +44 points Boylesports 17.00
Everton +44 points Boylesports 17.00

More BETSiE to come this season and beyond

Tomorrow I will be publishing the full fixture list with predictions for every game on the Premier League 2022/23 schedule.

But more than that, I will also be making a copy of the BETSiE Premier League season predictor available for download. Don’t like my club by club ratings? Fine. Suit yourself. Simply add your own, click a button and bang, you’ll have your own Premier League table prediction for the upcoming season.

Also, BETSiE projections will be available for every Premier League match every Friday of the season, with projected probabilities for a wide range of betting markets. Later in the year I will incorporate my expected value ratings to deliver the best bets across another of leagues. I was hoping to have all that done by the start of the season, but had some other business to tend to and to be honest, the early start to the domestic season didn’t help matters.

I will also be making an updated sheet available throughout the season, with updated projections as the season progress. I also have plans to add other major football leagues such as the Bundesliga. Serie A, La Liga and Ligue Un plus others. And yes, BETSiE will be predicting the 2022 World Cup. More to come on that.

I will also be adding other sports such as the NFL and NBA later in the year with plans to add MLB and NHL next year.

You can read more about betting on football on the bettingexpert Academy. And I will be adding more guides on these topics in the coming months.


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