BETSiE Predicts.....the Premier League Table 2022/23: Projected Points Totals For Each Premier League Club
Premier League season 2022/23 is (at time of writing) just two days, 11 hours, 29 minutes annnnnd 33 seconds away.
And if you’re reading this now, it’s sooner than that.
Or possibly later. If you’re reading this in May 2023, it’s likely due to a shameless retweet on behalf of myself or one of my 100k Twitter followers (that I will surely have by then), showcasing just how accurate (profitable) these projections were (are).
But for now, let’s assume you’re reading this in the present (the now, now) prior to the season kick off.
While I resist the sudden urge to turn this Premier League projections piece into a meditation on the glaring lack of sports based time travel movies…..
(Movie pitch – a film based on Brian Clough’s time as manager of Leeds Utd. Every time Clough fails to win the league with Leeds, he wakes again on the first day of his tenure and has to do it all over again until he achieves the ultimate success. But all is not as it seems. Cloughy learns that Billy Bremner is really a cyborg sent to the past to preserve a future in which Cloughy’s failure at Leeds ultimately leads to a dystopian hellscape in which Leeds United wins every European Super League title from 2025 until the end of time itself. Tentative working title: Clough is Enough)
….let’s get serious and turn to our Premier League projections for 2022/23.
In this article:
- Introducing BETSiE
- How to predict the Premier League Season
- BETSiE’s Premier League Club by Club Ratings
- Calculating Scores, Probabilities & Expected Points
- BETSiE’s Premier League 2022/23 Table Projection
- Comparing BETSiE to other projections
- Where does BETSiE see the betting value?
- More BETSiE to come this season
What is BETSiE? Or rather, who is BETSiE?
BETSiE…. (which stands for Betting…Event ….hmm Tipping….errr Synthetic…..Investment…………..Environment! That’ll do. If you have a better acronym let me know in the comments)
…is one half of the betting model I have developed and refined over the last 15 years.
She (BETSiE) essentially projects match probabilities for upcoming sports events, in the case of this article, the English Premier League. (The other half of the betting model? My expected value model, also known as x$. But more on that as the season progresses).
Predicting the 2022/23 Premier League Season
To project the entire Premier League, I began by calculating expected goals for each club in the league. While I suspect (admit) that my expected goals model is not as sophisticated (self righteous) as those developed and employed elsewhere, it has undergone many refinements over the years and has served me well.
For football, BETSiE includes the following (hardly surprising list of data):
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
But not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value. This value is calculated by squaring the [REDACTED], multiplying the [REDACTED] by the mean of [REDACTED] with the final adjusted value the square root of [REDACTED]. Simple right?
No, BETSiE does not incorporate ‘xy coordinates’ or ‘pressure indexes’ or the mood the shot taker happened to be in when taking the shot. No, BETSiE just keeps it simple and plays her role.
BETSiE’s Premier League Club by Club Preseason Ratings
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against by their performance in these previous matches.
So, heading into the 2022/ 23 Premier League season, here are BETSiE’s expected goal ratings for each Premier League club.
|CLUB||Exp GF||Exp GA||Exp GD|
Once we have our expected goals for each club we can plug them into a Premier League fixture and predict scores for each game in the Premier League. Calculating these scores is rather simple once we have our expected goals.
Calculating Scores, Probabilities & Expected Points
An example: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
So for the opening match of the season we have Arsenal at Crystal Palace. The expected goal ratings for each club are…
|CLUB||Exp GF||Exp GA||Exp GD|
First we determine each club’s attack and defensive power rating. We do this by dividing each by the league average. Doing so gives us the following power ratings for each club.
|CLUB||Attack Power||Defence Power||Home / AWAY Ave|
An attack power rating above 1 is better than average. A defensive power rating less than 1 is better than average.
Then we simply multiply each team’s attack power rating by the opposing club’s defensive power rating and then by the league average for home (Crystal Palace) and by the league average for away (Arsenal).
(Determining the value of home advantage is a vexing topic. I have simply taken the average expected goals advantage for home clubs through the 2021/22 season. I will turn to the topic of home field advantage in future articles.)
So once we make these calculations, we get a predicted score for the Crystal Palace vs Arsenal match of:
Once we have our predicted scores, we calculate match probabilities using Poisson distribution. Essentially Poisson calculates the probability of an event occurring once we know the mean rate.
So for example, if we expect Arsenal to score on average 1.4852 goals in Friday night’s match, we can use Poisson to calculate the likelihood that they will score, 0, 1, 2, 3 etc.
Once we calculate the likelihood for each club to score a given number of goals we can combine them to determine the likelihood of each possible scoreline in the match, Arsenal to win 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 etc. Add up the likelihoods for all Arsenal winning score combinations and we have the likelihood of Arsenal winning the game. We do the same for all Crystal Palace score lines and all possible Drawn matches.
Yes, over the years a number of issues have been raised regarding Poisson’s ability to predict football match probabilities accurately. I am not going to get deep in the weeds on that issue now. And personally, I think most of it is overly pedantic bish.
Once we have our probabilities, we can calculate expected points for each team.
We do so by calculating the probability of an outcome by the points on offer for that outcome. So we have Arsenal as 45.75% chances of winning. Given there are 3 points on offer for win, we multiply the 3 points by the probability of Arsenal winning (45.75%) and we get 1.372 points. We multiply the chance of a draw (25.86%) by the 1 point on offer for a drawn result. We get 0.259 points. Add them and Arsenal’s expected points total for the game is 1.631.
|CLUB||Predicted Score||Win Probability||Expected Points|
Add up each club’s expected points through each match of the season and bang, BETSiE projects the Premier League table.
BETSiE’S Premier League Table Projection
So running through each of the 380 matches scheduled for the 2022/23 Premier League season, BETSiE has Man City winning the league by roughly 4 points from Liverpool.
Yes, I know. Shocking!
Currently BETSiE only projects team points. In the future, I will be developing her to run season simulations and calculate probabilities for the full series of outright betting markets.
Comparing BETSiE to other Premier League Forecasts
So where does BETSiE differ from other Premier League projections? And what are her best bets for the upcoming season in the projected team points markets? Let’s take a look.
Odds as at 4pm August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.
Firstly, bare in mind that the projections listed for bet365, Pinnacle and Unibet are not in all cases even money lines. The over under odds in many cases have either shortened or drifted.
In the case of bet365, you can bet on over a given number, under a given number or for the points total to land on a middle bracket.
Where Does BETSiE See the Value?
Premier League Points Totals Betting
According to BETSiE, the best points totals over under bets are the following:
|Arsenal||Under 64.5 points||Pinnacle||2.41|
|Bournemouth||Over 30.5 points||Unibet||1.85|
|Newcastle||Under 57.5 points||Unibet||1.90|
|Nottingham Forest||Over 33.5 points||Pinnacle||1.81|
Odds as at 4pm August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.
Premier League Handicap Betting
Below I have taken the BETSiE points projections for each club and added the season points total handicaps from Betfred, bet365, BetVictor and Boylesports. Bare in mind also that while most bookmakers offer odds of 16.0 or 17.0 on each number, some bookmakers have fluctuating odds.
There a few clubs offering value here. The best of the bunch for me are:
|Crystal Palace||+42 points||Betfred||16.00|
More BETSiE to come this season and beyond
Tomorrow I will be publishing the full fixture list with predictions for every game on the Premier League 2022/23 schedule.
But more than that, I will also be making a copy of the BETSiE Premier League season predictor available for download. Don’t like my club by club ratings? Fine. Suit yourself. Simply add your own, click a button and bang, you’ll have your own Premier League table prediction for the upcoming season.
Also, BETSiE projections will be available for every Premier League match every Friday of the season, with projected probabilities for a wide range of betting markets. Later in the year I will incorporate my expected value ratings to deliver the best bets across another of leagues. I was hoping to have all that done by the start of the season, but had some other business to tend to and to be honest, the early start to the domestic season didn’t help matters.
I will also be making an updated sheet available throughout the season, with updated projections as the season progress. I also have plans to add other major football leagues such as the Bundesliga. Serie A, La Liga and Ligue Un plus others. And yes, BETSiE will be predicting the 2022 World Cup. More to come on that.
I will also be adding other sports such as the NFL and NBA later in the year with plans to add MLB and NHL next year.
You can read more about betting on football on the bettingexpert Academy. And I will be adding more guides on these topics in the coming months.