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football | Friday, November 18, 2022 1:01 PM (Revised at: Monday, November 21, 2022 8:21 AM)
BETSiE Predicts.....the 2022 World Cup: Round 1 Best Bets
Andrew Brocker
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Well here we go. Round 1 of the 2022 World Cup is upon us and everyone is scrambling for the best bets for the first round of matches.
Yesterday I posted the full list of outright market best bets based on the 100,000 World Cup simulations performed by my good friend (and she is a friend), BETSiE.
Today I am sharing the full list of match projections for the opening round of matches. So let’s dig in.
In this article:
- World Cup Round 1 Best Bets
- World Cup Round 1: 1X2 Projections
- World Cup Round 1: Asian handicap Projections
- World Cup Round 1: Goal Total Projections
- World Cup Round 1: Both Teams to Score Projections
BETSiE’s World Cup 2022 Round 1 Best Bets
- Ecuador -0.25 goals (AH) vs Qatar @ odds 2.09
- Croatia to win vs Morocco @ odds 2.10
- Belgium -1 goal (AH) vs Canada @ odds 1.90
- Cameroon +0.75 goals (AH) vs Switzerland @ odds 1.94
- England vs Iran Over 2.25 goals @ odds 2.06
Best odds as at 12pm November 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.
World Cup 2022 Round 1: 1X2 Projections
Below are the 1X2 probabilities for the 16 matches of the first round with best odds at time of writing.
| Team A | Team B | Team A % | Draw % | Team B % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Senegal | 63.50% | 21.80% | 14.70% |
| England | Iran | 70.80% | 19.50% | 9.80% |
| Ecuador | Qatar | 46.90% | 27.30% | 25.80% |
| USA | Wales | 38.40% | 28.00% | 33.60% |
| Argentina | Saudi Arabia | 83.00% | 12.20% | 4.90% |
| Denmark | Tunisia | 64.10% | 22.60% | 13.30% |
| Mexico | Poland | 35.40% | 28.50% | 36.10% |
| Australia | France | 6.90% | 15.00% | 78.10% |
| Croatia | Morocco | 51.40% | 26.40% | 22.20% |
| Germany | Japan | 68.20% | 18.90% | 12.90% |
| Costa Rica | Spain | 4.70% | 12.70% | 82.60% |
| Belgium | Canada | 69.20% | 18.80% | 12.00% |
| Cameroon | Switzerland | 20.40% | 26.70% | 52.90% |
| South Korea | Uruguay | 19.20% | 25.60% | 55.20% |
| Ghana | Portugal | 11.80% | 20.50% | 67.70% |
| Brazil | Serbia | 68.20% | 19.40% | 12.40% |
A number of nations are offering value in the 1X2 market to kickoff the tournament. Chief of these are:
- Ecuador (vs Qatar)
- Wales (vs USA)
- Tunisia (vs Denmark)
- Croatia (vs Morocco)
- Costa Rica (vs Spain)
- Belgium (vs Canada)
- Cameroon (vs Switzerland)
- Ghana (vs Portugal)
So let’s then take a look at the Asian handicap market and see if any of these are providing value there also.
World Cup 2022 Round 1: Asian Handicap Projections
Below are the probabilities for each opening round match in the Asian handicap market.
| Team A | Team B | Team A Ah | Team B Ah | Team A Ah% | Team B Ah% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Senegal | -1 | 1 | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| England | Iran | -1.25 | 1.25 | 52.70% | 47.30% |
| Ecuador | Qatar | -0.25 | 0.25 | 55.70% | 44.30% |
| USA | Wales | -0.25 | 0.25 | 45.90% | 54.10% |
| Argentina | Saudi Arabia | -2 | 2 | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| Denmark | Tunisia | -1 | 1 | 51.00% | 49.00% |
| Mexico | Poland | 0 | 0 | 49.60% | 50.40% |
| Australia | France | 1.75 | -1.75 | 51.50% | 48.50% |
| Croatia | Morocco | -0.5 | 0.5 | 51.40% | 48.60% |
| Germany | Japan | -1 | 1 | 58.20% | 41.80% |
| Costa Rica | Spain | 2 | -2 | 51.00% | 49.00% |
| Belgium | Canada | -1 | 1 | 59.30% | 40.70% |
| Cameroon | Switzerland | 0.75 | -0.75 | 55.40% | 44.60% |
| South Korea | Uruguay | 0.5 | -0.5 | 44.80% | 55.20% |
| Ghana | Portugal | 1.25 | -1.25 | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| Brazil | Serbia | -1.25 | 1.25 | 50.60% | 49.40% |
Not as much value as we spied in the 1X2 market, but still plenty to take a nibble on.
In fact there are four nations that see value in both the 1X2 market and Asian handicap market.
As a rule I will only place money on teams that are providing value in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets and then back those teams in the Asian handicap market
That being the case, these are the four best bets for the opening round of the World Cup:
- Ecuador -0.25 (AH) vs Qatar
- Croatia to win vs Morocco
- Belgium -1 goal (AH) vs Canada
- Cameroon +0.75 goals (AH) vs Switzerland
Let’s now turn our attention to goal totals and both teams to score.
World Cup 2022 Round 1: Goal Total Projections
Typically the margins are quite tight when it comes to BETSiE’s ability to find value in goal total markets. Let’s take a look then at the round 1 over under predictions.
| Team A | Team B | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Senegal | 2.25 | 57.10% | 42.90% |
| England | Iran | 2.25 | 55.00% | 45.00% |
| Ecuador | Qatar | 2 | 56.10% | 43.90% |
| USA | Wales | 2 | 56.30% | 43.70% |
| Argentina | Saudi Arabia | 2.75 | 55.10% | 44.90% |
| Denmark | Tunisia | 2.25 | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| Mexico | Poland | 2 | 54.40% | 45.60% |
| Australia | France | 2.75 | 50.10% | 49.90% |
| Croatia | Morocco | 2 | 56.40% | 43.60% |
| Germany | Japan | 2.75 | 51.30% | 48.70% |
| Costa Rica | Spain | 2.75 | 51.10% | 48.90% |
| Belgium | Canada | 2.75 | 49.10% | 50.90% |
| Cameroon | Switzerland | 2.25 | 46.30% | 53.70% |
| South Korea | Uruguay | 2 | 56.20% | 43.80% |
| Ghana | Portugal | 2.25 | 55.90% | 44.10% |
| Brazil | Serbia | 2.75 | 47.00% | 53.00% |
Not much to grab our attention. However there are four matches early where there appears to be some value in backing the Over.
These are:
- Netherlands vs Senegal, Over 2.25 goals
- England vs Iran, Over 2.25 goals
- Ecuador vs Qatar, Over 2 goals
- USA vs Wales, Over 2 goals
Ok, so let’s then see if any of these selections are offering value in the Both teams to Score – yes market.
World Cup 2022 Round 1: Both Teams To Score Projections
Below are the probabilities for both teams to score yes and no for the full list of round 1 matches.
| Team A | Team B | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Senegal | 45.20% | 54.80% |
| England | Iran | 37.70% | 62.30% |
| Ecuador | Qatar | 45.90% | 54.10% |
| USA | Wales | 47.50% | 52.50% |
| Argentina | Saudi Arabia | 36.40% | 63.60% |
| Denmark | Tunisia | 39.60% | 60.40% |
| Mexico | Poland | 46.30% | 53.70% |
| Australia | France | 38.80% | 61.20% |
| Croatia | Morocco | 44.70% | 55.30% |
| Germany | Japan | 49.60% | 50.40% |
| Costa Rica | Spain | 33.30% | 66.70% |
| Belgium | Canada | 47.00% | 53.00% |
| Cameroon | Switzerland | 42.10% | 57.90% |
| South Korea | Uruguay | 43.00% | 57.00% |
| Ghana | Portugal | 41.20% | 58.80% |
| Brazil | Serbia | 46.10% | 53.90% |
Once again there’s not a great deal to excite us here. As a rule, I look for confirmation of any goal total bets with the both teams to score market. So if the over is value, I look for value in both teams to score – yes. If the under is the value, I look for value in both teams to score – no.
Do we have any matches providing value in both?
Yes, just one.
So let’s add England vs Iran Over 2.25 goals to our list of best bets.
Round 1 of the 2022 World Cup kicks off on Sunday. I’ll be back with match projections and best bets for Round 2 as the opening round concludes.
As always, gamble responsibly.
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