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Our Expert, Scott Thornton, has pieced together his Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg predictions, team news and lineups preview ahead of the weekend’s Bundesliga action.
He’s outlined three early predictions for what could have a huge impact on the league’s European places. Dortmund have a history of hammering Freiburg. Another here would go a long way towards alleviating concerns after last week’s draw.
In this article:
Germany, Bundesliga, Friday, February 9th, 19:30 (UK)
Borussia Dortmund dropped points away to Heidenheim last weekend. They lacked cutting edge in attack but remained and allowed RB Leipzig to close the gap in the race for the Champions League. They have the chase to steal an early march on their rivals this weekend as they host Freiburg on Friday night, and goals are on the agenda.
Edin Terzic’s side won 4-2 in the last head-to-head with Freiburg. Dortmund’s Bundesliga home matches this season have seen an average of 3.4 goals, keeping just one clean sheet in their last six. Dortmund have won 5-1 on the previous two occasions they have welcomed Freiburg to Signal Iduna Park.
Freiburg struggled to create chances in their first few away games of the campaign. They have remedied that issue in recent months and have managed to score in their last six Bundesliga matches on the road.
Germany, Bundesliga, Friday, February 9th, 19:30 (UK)
Freiburg are currently 7th in the Bundesliga. They’ve struggled to find the consistency they did last season but remain in the race for a place in Europe. Christian Stretch’s side are nine points behind Dortmund after being beaten 3-1 by Stuttgart last weekend.
We are backing the visitors to lose by at least a two-goal margin once again. We can get odds of 1.90 with bet365 for -1 on the Asian handicap. This means we get our stake back should the home side win by a solitary goal.
Dortmund have won the last four head-to-heads with Freiburg by at least two goals. Dortmund’s last five home matches against this opponent have seen this bet win four times and result in money back on the other occasion. Over the course of those five matches, they averaged 3.4 goals per game, so they have a habit of putting Freiburg to the sword.
Germany, Bundesliga, Friday, February 9th, 19:30 (UK)
Dortmund’s attack fell short against Heidenheim, but they have shown plenty in that department this season. Terzic likes to give his attacking players the freedom to express themselves in the final third of the pitch. One player who has benefitted from this is Niclas Fullkrug, who enjoys roaming in attack in order to open up spaces to exploit.
Fullkrug is willing to receive the ball in deeper areas to have an impact on the game. This means he operates well when his teammates are willing to maraude forward and occupy his usual position in the opposition box. That’s not to say Fullkrug hasn’t been effective in getting goals.
Niclas has scored nine league goals this season, more than any of his teammates. He played well and managed three shots against Freiburg, two of which were on target, despite Dortmund being unable to break the deadlock. He is averaging 0.6 goals per 90 minutes played in the league this season. Fullkrug’s style of play has meant he has been able to benefit from the chaotic nature of Terzic’s setup, and he should have opportunities against a side that Dortmund has been able to carve to pieces in recent years.
Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Predictions odds via bet365 as at 08:35, February 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Dortmund have had to deal with several injuries this season. Karim Adeyemi, Julian Duranville and Marco Reus are all currently sideline, which has severely limited their attacking options. Edin Terzic was unhappy with the way his fringe players performed against Heidenheim performed so would no doubt have lived to have a full squad available to him here.
Daniel-Kyofi Kyereh is Freiburg’s only long term absentee. He has missed the season with a crucifer ligament tear and the team has plodded on without him.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Meyer; Maatsen, Schlotterbeck, Hummels, Wolf; Can, Sabitzer; Bynoe-Gittens, Malen, Fullkrug; Moukoko
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Atubolu; Kubler, Weißhaupt, Gulde, Makengo; Eggestein, Hofler, Sallai; Holer, Grifo, Gregoritsch
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Bundesliga standings ahead of the Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg, currently 4th vs 7th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAME | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 26.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 96.4 | 31.4 | 65.0 | 82.1 |
2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 24.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 83.3 | 28.3 | 54.9 | 81.2 |
3 | Stuttgart | 34 | 21.5 | 3.7 | 8.8 | 78.0 | 41.2 | 36.8 | 68.2 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 18.7 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 73.5 | 44.1 | 29.4 | 61.9 |
5 | Dortmund | 34 | 17.1 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 70.3 | 50.9 | 19.4 | 60.1 |
6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 50.7 | 46.7 | 4.0 | 49.9 |
7 | Freiburg | 34 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 13.2 | 47.3 | 55.3 | -8.0 | 47.7 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 14.3 | 60.2 | 64.4 | -4.2 | 44.9 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 14.2 | 49.3 | 55.4 | -6.1 | 42.6 |
10 | Augsburg | 34 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 50.2 | 60.3 | -10.0 | 40.7 |
11 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 14.8 | 57.5 | 65.5 | -8.0 | 39.6 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 15.9 | 41.3 | 54.1 | -12.8 | 39.5 |
13 | Bochum | 34 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 13.8 | 42.0 | 62.6 | -20.5 | 38.0 |
14 | Heidenheim | 34 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 16.6 | 46.2 | 67.3 | -21.1 | 36.3 |
15 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 18.3 | 38.6 | 58.3 | -19.8 | 35.8 |
16 | Mainz | 34 | 6.7 | 11.9 | 15.5 | 33.2 | 51.6 | -18.4 | 31.9 |
17 | FC Koln | 34 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 19.8 | 29.1 | 66.7 | -37.6 | 24.9 |
18 | Darmstadt | 34 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 21.5 | 37.0 | 80.2 | -43.2 | 21.8 |
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