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Analysis | Monday, October 16, 2023 10:33 AM (Revised at: Friday, February 23, 2024 11:21 AM)

BETSiE Predicts the Bundesliga: Updated February 20th 2023

BETSiE Predicts the Bundesliga: Updated February 20th 2023
IMAGO / Nordphoto - Jonas Hofmann Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 7 taking a shot on goal.

The 2024 Bundesliga title looks Bayer Leverkusen’s to lose, following their 2-1 win at Heidenheim on Saturday coupled with Bayern Munich’s shock loss at Bochum on Sunday. Leverkusen are now at 86.2% to win their first Bundesliga title with Bayern at 13.5% and Stuttgart at the long odds of 0.3%. RB Leipzig took a strangle hold on fourth place with their 2-0 win at home over M’gladbach on Saturday with Dortmund drawing 1-1 at Wolfsburg. Darmstadt and Koln look set for Bundesliga 2 action next season with Mainz favoured at 50.9% to feature in the relegation playoff.

In this article:


BETSIE’S BEST BETS

SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER
Mainz +1.75 (AH) at Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 bet365
Stuttgart -1.5 (AH) vs FC Koln 1.95 bet365

Odds correct as at 10am 20th February 2024. Odds may now differ.


BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES

LEAGUE DATE SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER
Bundesliga February 23 Mainz +1.75 (AH) at Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 bet365
Championship February 23 Leeds vs Leicester Under 2.75 goals 1.85 Pinnacle
Eredivisie February 23 Heracles +1.25 (AH) at Utrecht 1.99 bet365
Serie A February 23 Verona +1 (AH) at Bologna 1.92 Unibet
Bundesliga February 24 Stuttgart -1.5 (AH) vs FC Koln 1.95 bet365
Championship February 24 Cardiff vs Stoke Under 2.25 goals 1.93 bet365
Championship February 24 Hull vs West Brom Under 2.25 goals 1.98 bet365
Championship February 24 QPR vs Rotherham Under 2.25 goals 1.85 bet365
Championship February 24 Sheffield Wednesday vs Bristol Under 2.25 goals 1.93 bet365
Championship February 24 Watford vs Huddersfield Under 2.5 goals 1.93 Pinnacle
League One February 24 Charlton +0.5 (AH) vs Portsmouth 1.93 Pinnacle
League One February 24 Port Vale +0 (AH) vs Lincoln 1.85 bet365
League Two February 24 Gillingham +0 (AH) vs Wrexham 2.03 bet365
League Two February 24 Salford +1 (AH) at Mansfield 1.93 Unibet
League Two February 24 Swindon +1 (AH) at Stockport 2.14 Unibet
La Liga February 24 Granada +0 (AH) vs Valencia 1.99 bet365
Premier League February 24 Nottingham Forest +1 (AH) at Aston Villa 2 Pinnacle
Premier League February 24 Bournemouth +1.25 (AH) vs Man City 2.03 Pinnacle
Premier League February 24 Everton +0.75 (AH) at Brighton 1.84 Pinnacle
Premier League February 24 Fulham +1 (AH) at Man Utd 1.95 Pinnacle
Eredivisie February 25 AZ Alkmaar -0.25 (AH) vs Ajax 1.99 bet365
Eredivisie February 25 Excelsior -0.25 (AH) vs Vitesse 1.95 bet365
Premier League February 26 Brentford +0 (AH) at West Ham 2.08 Pinnacle
Serie A February 26 Roma vs Torino Under 2 goals 2.08 Pinnacle

Championship, League One, League Two odds correct as at 10am 21st February 2024. Odds may now differ
Bundesliga odds correct as at 10am 20th February 2024. Odds may now differ
Eredivisie, La Liga, Premier League odds correct as at 10am 22nd February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Serie A odds correct as at 10am 23rd February 2024. Odds may now differ.


Projected Bundesliga Table

Updated: 20th February 2023

Position Club Game W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayer Leverkusen 34 26.1 6.3 1.7 82.9 24.9 58.0 84.5
2 Bayern Munich 34 24.8 3.8 5.4 93.5 35.9 57.6 78.2
3 Stuttgart 34 22.3 3.1 8.5 78.6 42.0 36.6 70.1
4 RB Leipzig 34 18.7 6.4 8.9 72.1 42.3 29.7 62.6
5 Dortmund 34 16.3 10.3 7.4 67.2 47.6 19.6 59.2
6 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 11.7 11.6 10.8 49.8 49.9 -0.1 46.6
7 Freiburg 34 12.2 7.8 14.0 45.6 58.6 -12.9 44.4
8 Werder Bremen 34 12.1 7.7 14.2 47.5 53.3 -5.8 44.0
9 Hoffenheim 34 11.1 8.5 14.4 56.2 62.8 -6.6 41.8
10 Bochum 34 9.3 12.7 12.0 43.8 60.3 -16.5 40.6
11 Heidenheim 34 10.2 8.6 15.3 45.5 60.7 -15.2 39.1
12 Augsburg 34 9.4 10.6 13.9 48.6 59.1 -10.5 39.0
13 B. Monchengladbach 34 9.6 9.7 14.6 54.2 61.4 -7.2 38.6
14 Union Berlin 34 10.9 5.9 17.2 35.8 53.1 -17.3 38.6
15 Wolfsburg 34 9.5 8.7 15.7 39.5 53.2 -13.7 37.4
16 Mainz 34 6.2 12.0 15.8 31.1 50.6 -19.6 30.7
17 FC Koln 34 5.4 9.3 19.3 27.5 62.4 -35.0 25.6
18 Darmstadt 34 4.3 8.4 21.3 35.3 76.3 -41.0 21.4

Bundesliga Finish Probabilities

Club Win League Top 2 Finish Top 4 Finish Top 6 Finish Top Half Finish Bottom Half Finish Relegation Relegation Playoff
Bayer Leverkusen 86.2% 99.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayern Munich 13.5% 93.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stuttgart 0.3% 7.0% 98.6% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Leipzig 0.0% 0.2% 73.5% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dortmund 0.0% 0.0% 27.8% 99.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 41.0% 85.8% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Freiburg 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 67.1% 32.9% 0.0% 0.4%
Werder Bremen 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 66.4% 33.6% 0.0% 0.2%
Hoffenheim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 47.8% 52.2% 0.0% 1.1%
Bochum 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 33.0% 67.0% 0.3% 2.9%
Heidenheim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 21.4% 78.6% 0.3% 4.2%
Augsburg 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 23.1% 76.9% 0.4% 4.0%
B. Monchengladbach 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 23.7% 76.3% 0.6% 5.0%
Union Berlin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 18.3% 81.7% 0.6% 5.5%
Wolfsburg 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 13.0% 87.0% 0.7% 8.2%
Mainz 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 99.5% 18.3% 50.9%
FC Koln 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 82.5% 14.3%
Darmstadt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.3% 3.3%

Upcoming matches February 23rd, 24th, 25th

Home Away Home Away Margin Total
Augsburg Freiburg 1.72 1.28 0.44 3
B. Monchengladbach Bochum 1.93 1.3 0.63 3.24
Bayer Leverkusen Mainz 1.96 0.53 1.42 2.49
Bayern Munich RB Leipzig 2.37 1.02 1.35 3.38
Dortmund Hoffenheim 2.61 1.46 1.14 4.07
Eintracht Frankfurt Wolfsburg 1.54 1.09 0.46 2.63
Stuttgart FC Koln 3.58 0.69 2.89 4.27
Union Berlin Heidenheim 1.73 0.98 0.75 2.7
Werder Bremen Darmstadt 2.13 0.88 1.24 3.01

Match 1X2 Probabilities

Home Away Home % Draw % Away %
Augsburg Freiburg 47.82% 23.66% 28.53%
B. Monchengladbach Bochum 52.17% 22.11% 25.72%
Bayer Leverkusen Mainz 71.42% 19.47% 9.11%
Bayern Munich RB Leipzig 67.35% 18.00% 14.65%
Dortmund Hoffenheim 62.08% 17.81% 20.11%
Eintracht Frankfurt Wolfsburg 47.85% 25.43% 26.73%
Stuttgart FC Koln 88.67% 7.69% 3.64%
Union Berlin Heidenheim 55.09% 23.72% 21.19%
Werder Bremen Darmstadt 65.97% 19.55% 14.48%

Asian Handicaps

Home Away Home AH Away AH Home AH % Away AH %
Augsburg Freiburg -0.25 0.25 55.23% 44.77%
B. Monchengladbach Bochum -0.5 0.5 52.17% 47.83%
Bayer Leverkusen Mainz -1.75 1.75 37.32% 62.68%
Bayern Munich RB Leipzig -0.75 0.75 62.62% 37.38%
Dortmund Hoffenheim -1.25 1.25 47.00% 53.00%
Eintracht Frankfurt Wolfsburg -0.25 0.25 56.00% 44.00%
Stuttgart FC Koln -1.5 1.5 74.32% 25.68%
Union Berlin Heidenheim -0.5 0.5 55.09% 44.91%
Werder Bremen Darmstadt -0.75 0.75 60.61% 39.39%

Goal Totals

Home Away O/U Line Over % Under %
Augsburg Freiburg 2.75 51.61% 48.39%
B. Monchengladbach Bochum 3 52.17% 47.83%
Bayer Leverkusen Mainz 3 30.56% 69.44%
Bayern Munich RB Leipzig 3.25 49.98% 50.02%
Dortmund Hoffenheim 3.5 57.99% 42.01%
Eintracht Frankfurt Wolfsburg 2.5 48.85% 51.15%
Stuttgart FC Koln 3 75.34% 24.66%
Union Berlin Heidenheim 2.25 58.98% 41.02%
Werder Bremen Darmstadt 2.5 57.90% 42.10%

Both Teams To Score

Home Away Yes No
Augsburg Freiburg 59.29% 40.71%
B. Monchengladbach Bochum 62.30% 37.70%
Bayer Leverkusen Mainz 35.49% 64.51%
Bayern Munich RB Leipzig 57.87% 42.13%
Dortmund Hoffenheim 71.18% 28.82%
Eintracht Frankfurt Wolfsburg 52.06% 47.94%
Stuttgart FC Koln 48.42% 51.58%
Union Berlin Heidenheim 51.25% 48.75%
Werder Bremen Darmstadt 51.65% 48.35%

WHAT IS BETSIE?

BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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