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Analysis | Monday, October 16, 2023 10:33 AM (Revised at: Monday, February 10, 2025 9:57 AM)

BETSiE Predicts the Bundesliga: Updated February 10th

BETSiE Predicts the Bundesliga: Updated February 10th
Peter Schatz / Alamy Stock Photo: Harry Kane

Matchday 22 of the Bundesliga (February 14-16) promises key clashes. Bayern Munich (44.8%) visit Leverkusen, while Dortmund (59.0%) are strong favorites at Bochum. Leipzig (45.6%) edge Augsburg, and Frankfurt (77.8%) dominate Holstein Kiel.

At the bottom, Bochum (19.5%) and Holstein Kiel (8.7%) fight for survival. Bayern remain title favorites (98.9%), projected at 84.4 points (+67.7 GD). Leverkusen and Frankfurt chase top-four spots, with Leipzig and Stuttgart in the mix.

High-scoring games include Frankfurt-Holstein Kiel (3.7 goals) and Stuttgart-Wolfsburg (3.43). Matchday 22 shapes up as a pivotal weekend.


Bundesliga Matchday 22 Projections: February 14th – February 16th

HOME AWAY Home Win % Draw % Away Win %
Augsburg RB Leipzig 27.5% 26.9% 45.6%
Bayer Leverkusen Bayern Munich 28.1% 27.2% 44.8%
Bochum Dortmund 19.5% 21.6% 59.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt Holstein Kiel 77.8% 13.5% 8.7%
Heidenheim Mainz 36.9% 25.1% 38.0%
St. Pauli Freiburg 30.0% 31.1% 38.9%
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 56.5% 20.7% 22.8%
Union Berlin B. Monchengladbach 46.2% 24.9% 28.9%
Werder Bremen Hoffenheim 53.7% 22.8% 23.5%

Projected goal totals: February 14th – February 16th

HOME AWAY HGF AGF GD GT
Augsburg RB Leipzig 1.02 1.4 -0.38 2.42
Bayer Leverkusen Bayern Munich 1.02 1.37 -0.35 2.4
Bochum Dortmund 1.04 1.97 -0.93 3
Eintracht Frankfurt Holstein Kiel 2.83 0.87 1.96 3.7
Heidenheim Mainz 1.41 1.43 -0.02 2.84
St. Pauli Freiburg 0.89 1.06 -0.17 1.95
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 2.13 1.3 0.83 3.43
Union Berlin B. Monchengladbach 1.57 1.19 0.38 2.77
Werder Bremen Hoffenheim 1.85 1.15 0.7 2.99

Projected league table

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD Points
1 Bayern Munich 34 26.4 5.2 2.4 95.8 28.1 67.7 84.4
2 Bayer Leverkusen 34 20.4 9.9 3.8 72.5 39.5 33.1 70.9
3 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 17.6 8.6 7.8 71.0 45.8 25.2 61.4
4 RB Leipzig 34 16.1 8.9 8.9 58.4 45.8 12.5 57.4
5 Stuttgart 34 16.0 7.8 10.1 62.1 49.4 12.6 55.9
6 Dortmund 34 14.3 8.0 11.6 57.4 50.2 7.2 51.0
7 Freiburg 34 14.8 6.6 12.6 43.7 51.4 -7.7 50.9
8 Wolfsburg 34 13.4 9.0 11.6 63.4 53.3 10.1 49.2
9 Mainz 34 13.6 8.0 12.5 50.6 44.1 6.5 48.7
10 Werder Bremen 34 13.2 9.1 11.8 53.2 57.3 -4.1 48.5
11 B. Monchengladbach 34 13.8 6.9 13.3 52.6 52.5 0.1 48.3
12 Augsburg 34 10.5 9.3 14.2 36.8 54.1 -17.3 40.7
13 Union Berlin 34 10.4 8.3 15.3 34.1 45.1 -11.0 39.5
14 St. Pauli 34 9.1 6.2 18.7 29.9 44.3 -14.4 33.5
15 Hoffenheim 34 7.9 9.0 17.1 42.7 66.1 -23.4 32.7
16 Heidenheim 34 7.5 4.7 21.8 41.0 67.3 -26.3 27.2
17 Bochum 34 5.9 6.6 21.5 34.8 72.9 -38.1 24.2
18 Holstein Kiel 34 5.7 6.9 21.4 45.6 78.2 -32.5 24.0

League finish probabilities

Club Win League Top 4 Top 5 Top Half Bottom Half Relegation Relegation PO
Bayern Munich 98.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayer Leverkusen 1.1% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.0% 85.5% 93.9% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Leipzig 0.0% 50.4% 71.4% 98.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Stuttgart 0.0% 37.1% 61.7% 96.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Dortmund 0.0% 7.3% 19.3% 79.6% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Freiburg 0.0% 6.8% 16.8% 73.7% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Wolfsburg 0.0% 4.8% 12.6% 67.5% 32.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Mainz 0.0% 3.3% 9.0% 61.8% 38.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Werder Bremen 0.0% 2.7% 7.9% 57.1% 42.9% 0.0% 0.0%
B. Monchengladbach 0.0% 2.4% 7.2% 56.0% 44.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Augsburg 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 5.3% 94.7% 0.0% 0.5%
Union Berlin 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.8% 96.2% 0.2% 1.0%
St. Pauli 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 3.5% 11.0%
Hoffenheim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 7.1% 16.4%
Heidenheim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 38.8% 36.6%
Bochum 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 75.5% 16.7%
Holstein Kiel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 74.9% 17.7%

WHAT IS BETSIE?

BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


SAFER GAMBLING

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