BETSiE Predicts the Bundesliga: Updated February 10th

Matchday 22 of the Bundesliga (February 14-16) promises key clashes. Bayern Munich (44.8%) visit Leverkusen, while Dortmund (59.0%) are strong favorites at Bochum. Leipzig (45.6%) edge Augsburg, and Frankfurt (77.8%) dominate Holstein Kiel.
At the bottom, Bochum (19.5%) and Holstein Kiel (8.7%) fight for survival. Bayern remain title favorites (98.9%), projected at 84.4 points (+67.7 GD). Leverkusen and Frankfurt chase top-four spots, with Leipzig and Stuttgart in the mix.
High-scoring games include Frankfurt-Holstein Kiel (3.7 goals) and Stuttgart-Wolfsburg (3.43). Matchday 22 shapes up as a pivotal weekend.
Bundesliga Matchday 22 Projections: February 14th – February 16th
HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
Augsburg | RB Leipzig | 27.5% | 26.9% | 45.6% |
Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern Munich | 28.1% | 27.2% | 44.8% |
Bochum | Dortmund | 19.5% | 21.6% | 59.0% |
Eintracht Frankfurt | Holstein Kiel | 77.8% | 13.5% | 8.7% |
Heidenheim | Mainz | 36.9% | 25.1% | 38.0% |
St. Pauli | Freiburg | 30.0% | 31.1% | 38.9% |
Stuttgart | Wolfsburg | 56.5% | 20.7% | 22.8% |
Union Berlin | B. Monchengladbach | 46.2% | 24.9% | 28.9% |
Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim | 53.7% | 22.8% | 23.5% |
Projected goal totals: February 14th – February 16th
HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
Augsburg | RB Leipzig | 1.02 | 1.4 | -0.38 | 2.42 |
Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern Munich | 1.02 | 1.37 | -0.35 | 2.4 |
Bochum | Dortmund | 1.04 | 1.97 | -0.93 | 3 |
Eintracht Frankfurt | Holstein Kiel | 2.83 | 0.87 | 1.96 | 3.7 |
Heidenheim | Mainz | 1.41 | 1.43 | -0.02 | 2.84 |
St. Pauli | Freiburg | 0.89 | 1.06 | -0.17 | 1.95 |
Stuttgart | Wolfsburg | 2.13 | 1.3 | 0.83 | 3.43 |
Union Berlin | B. Monchengladbach | 1.57 | 1.19 | 0.38 | 2.77 |
Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim | 1.85 | 1.15 | 0.7 | 2.99 |
Projected league table
Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 26.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 95.8 | 28.1 | 67.7 | 84.4 |
2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 20.4 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 72.5 | 39.5 | 33.1 | 70.9 |
3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 17.6 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 71.0 | 45.8 | 25.2 | 61.4 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 16.1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 58.4 | 45.8 | 12.5 | 57.4 |
5 | Stuttgart | 34 | 16.0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 62.1 | 49.4 | 12.6 | 55.9 |
6 | Dortmund | 34 | 14.3 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 57.4 | 50.2 | 7.2 | 51.0 |
7 | Freiburg | 34 | 14.8 | 6.6 | 12.6 | 43.7 | 51.4 | -7.7 | 50.9 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 63.4 | 53.3 | 10.1 | 49.2 |
9 | Mainz | 34 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 12.5 | 50.6 | 44.1 | 6.5 | 48.7 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 53.2 | 57.3 | -4.1 | 48.5 |
11 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 13.3 | 52.6 | 52.5 | 0.1 | 48.3 |
12 | Augsburg | 34 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 36.8 | 54.1 | -17.3 | 40.7 |
13 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 15.3 | 34.1 | 45.1 | -11.0 | 39.5 |
14 | St. Pauli | 34 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 18.7 | 29.9 | 44.3 | -14.4 | 33.5 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 17.1 | 42.7 | 66.1 | -23.4 | 32.7 |
16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 21.8 | 41.0 | 67.3 | -26.3 | 27.2 |
17 | Bochum | 34 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 21.5 | 34.8 | 72.9 | -38.1 | 24.2 |
18 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 21.4 | 45.6 | 78.2 | -32.5 | 24.0 |
League finish probabilities
Club | Win League | Top 4 | Top 5 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation | Relegation PO |
Bayern Munich | 98.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bayer Leverkusen | 1.1% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.0% | 85.5% | 93.9% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
RB Leipzig | 0.0% | 50.4% | 71.4% | 98.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Stuttgart | 0.0% | 37.1% | 61.7% | 96.7% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Dortmund | 0.0% | 7.3% | 19.3% | 79.6% | 20.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Freiburg | 0.0% | 6.8% | 16.8% | 73.7% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Wolfsburg | 0.0% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 67.5% | 32.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Mainz | 0.0% | 3.3% | 9.0% | 61.8% | 38.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Werder Bremen | 0.0% | 2.7% | 7.9% | 57.1% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
B. Monchengladbach | 0.0% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 56.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Augsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.3% | 94.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 96.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% |
St. Pauli | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% | 3.5% | 11.0% |
Hoffenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 7.1% | 16.4% |
Heidenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 38.8% | 36.6% |
Bochum | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 75.5% | 16.7% |
Holstein Kiel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 74.9% | 17.7% |
WHAT IS BETSIE?
BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.