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Mixed martial arts Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Our resident Brighton fan Matthew O’Regan has been tasked with giving his Bournemouth vs Brighton prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. A 0-1 win away at Wolves midweek pushed the Cherries into the top half of the Premier League, ahead of Sunday’s visitors, although the Seagulls have two games in hand which they’ll be looking to exploit.
- Bournemouth vs Brighton Tip 1: Dominic Solanke To Score
- Bournemouth vs Brighton Tip 2: Lewis Dunk over 0.5 shots
- Bournemouth vs Brighton Tip 3: Pascal Groß to Assist
Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction 1: Goal Machine Solanke
England, Premier League, Sunday 28th April, 14:00
Although I tipped Solanke to score against Wolves and he failed to oblige, I’m willing to trust in him again on Sunday.
The 26-year-old is still on 18 goals – two behind Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer, as he chases an unlikely golden boot. After scoring 30 goals in the Cherries promotion season, Solanke had a respectable output in his return to the Premier League, scoring six and assisting seven goals.
However, this year he has hit heights no-one thought he was capable of. Solanke has 18 goals and three assists from 34 starts as he makes a serious claim to be involved in Gareth Southgate’s Euro squad.
Per 90, Solanke is averaging 0.53 goals from 0.54 xG, averaging 2.91 shots in this time frame. While he drew a blank in the impressive (but controversial) win at Wolves, Solanke had scored in his two previous against Aston Villa and Manchester United AND in the reverse fixture earlier in the season.
Other than the 0-5 drubbing of Sheffield United, Brighton haven’t won a Premier League away game since the 2-3 victory over Nottingham Forest in November – 10 away games ago. What looked like it would be a promising season for De Zerbi’s side has now stagnated into a mid-table finish, with a decimated squad limping towards the finish line.
Solanke will look to exploit this and add to his already impressive goal tally.
- AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction 1: Dominic Solanke To Score
- Best Odds: 2.30
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction 2: Slam Dunk
Lewis Dunk will rightly go down in Brighton folklore. The Albion skipper has been at the heart of the meteoric rise through the ranks. From the pits of League 1 to beating Ajax in Amsterdam – Dunk has been there.
While he has made a name for himself with his fantastic defending ability, coupled with his calmness on the football, Dunk is also aerially dominant in both boxes, even finishing as the Seagulls top scorer in a turgid Championship campaign in 2014.
The 32-year-old has scored three goals from 28 Premier League starts this season. He also averages 1.13 shots and 0.40 shots on target per 90, which ranks him in the top percentile for Premier League centre-backs.
Not only is he Brighton’s main aerial threat from corners, Dunk is also trusted on free-kicks, with Brighton fans longing for him to finally score from outside the area.
In the reverse fixture, Dunk had two shots, while his centre-back partner Adam Webster also recorded a shot.
- Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction 2: Lewis Dunk Over 0.5 shots
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction 3: Großly underrated
Pascal Groß is arguably one of the most underrated players in the Premier League. The German was Brighton’s first-ever Premier League signing and since then has gone on to record 255 appearances for the Seagulls. In Roberto De Zerbi’s line-up roulette, two things are certain – Lewis Dunk and Pascal Groß start.
His versatility makes him such a key asset. The 32-year-old has played pretty much every position on the pitch in his seven years at the club. However, now he seems to have settled into the double-pivot role.
Despite Brighton’s inconsistent form this season, Groß has still shone and looks a shoo-in for their player of the season. He has 13 assists and five goals in all competitions.
While he had a rare injury in the reverse fixture, Groß laid on an assist the last time he visited Bournemouth, slotting Julio Enciso through to seal the game in the 90th minute.
Brighton have looked devoid of any attacking creativity or output in recent weeks, so their main hope of scoring may be from a moment of magic from the German.
- Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction 3: Pascal Groß to Assist
- Best Odds: 3.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:00, April 25th. Odds may now differ.
Bournemouth vs Brighton Team News and Possible Lineups: Injury Ravaged Seagulls
Tyler Adams, Romain Faivre, Chris Mepham and Ryan Fredericks remain out for Bournemouth, although the quartet have made a combined four Premier League starts this season for the Cherries. However, exciting wingers Marcus Tavernier and Luis Sinisterra are injured, while talented left back Milos Kerkez is suspended after receiving a straight red against Wolves. Mark Travers replaced Neto in the starting line up in midweek so may be rewarded with another start.
Injuries have been the story of Brighton’s season. Roberto De Zerbi confirmed in his midweek press conference that Evan Ferguson and Pervis Estupinan are out for the season, joining a long list of Albion players who are out.
Billy Gilmour, Jack Hinshelwood, James Milner, Kaoru Mitoma, Tariq Lamptey and Solly March remain out, while Adam Webster and Julio Enciso are touch and go. That makes it eight first team players still out injured, while two are doubtful.
De Zerbi seems to have stopped his goalkeeper rotation, so Verbruggen is expected to retain his place between the sticks.
Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Travers; Smith, Zabarnyi, Sensei; Kelly; Cook, Christie, Scott; Kluivert, Semenyo; Solanke
Brighton possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen; Veltman, Dunk, Van Hecke, Igor ; Baleba, Groß; Adingra, Enciso, Pedro; Welbeck
The Predicted Bournemouth vs Brighton Premier League Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Bournemouth vs Brighton currently 10th vs 11th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Bournemouth vs Brighton Standings Prediction
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 26.0 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 90.0 | 37.6 | 52.4 | 86.2 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 88.3 | 30.3 | 58.0 | 84.9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 87.6 | 38.1 | 49.5 | 84.1 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.7 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 75.6 | 58.0 | 17.6 | 69.1 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.9 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 74.4 | 61.2 | 13.2 | 66.9 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 38 | 17.9 | 6.2 | 13.9 | 81.6 | 62.0 | 19.6 | 59.9 |
| 7 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 17.1 | 6.3 | 14.6 | 55.3 | 57.6 | -2.3 | 57.6 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 38 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 12.9 | 72.9 | 64.1 | 8.8 | 56.7 |
| 9 | West Ham | 38 | 14.1 | 9.9 | 14.0 | 58.3 | 69.7 | -11.5 | 52.1 |
| 10 | Brighton | 38 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 61.3 | 61.0 | 0.3 | 51.3 |
| 11 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 14.3 | 56.2 | 66.0 | -9.7 | 50.5 |
| 12 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 16.4 | 52.9 | 63.3 | -10.4 | 48.5 |
| 13 | Fulham | 38 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 17.3 | 56.2 | 60.0 | -3.8 | 47.9 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 17.2 | 45.8 | 62.4 | -16.6 | 41.5 |
| 15 | Brentford | 38 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 19.1 | 54.7 | 66.5 | -11.7 | 38.4 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 17.4 | 40.8 | 57.2 | -16.4 | 37.2 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 18.9 | 48.1 | 64.5 | -16.4 | 32.6 |
| 18 | Luton | 38 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 22.2 | 53.8 | 79.2 | -25.5 | 31.0 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 23.5 | 39.1 | 76.7 | -37.6 | 25.3 |
| 20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 25.0 | 37.1 | 94.5 | -57.4 | 22.2 |
Match Stats: Unbeaten Cherries
- Having won four of their first six Premier League meetings with Brighton (D1 L1), Bournemouth have now lost each of their last three against the Seagulls.
- Brighton won this exact fixture 2-0 last season, ending a run of four straight away league defeats against Bournemouth. They last won consecutive league visits to the Cherries in February 1932.
- Bournemouth have lost 67.5% of their Premier League games played on Sunday (27/40), the highest loss rate for any team to have played 10+ Sunday games in the competition’s history.
- Brighton have lost three of their last five Premier League games played on a Sunday (W2), more than they had in their previous 18 (W10 D6 L2).
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2) – only once have they had a longer run without defeat at the Vitality Stadium in the top-flight, going six games between May and October 2018.
- Brighton have won just two of their last 15 Premier League away games (D5 L8), beating Nottingham Forest 3-2 in November and Sheffield United 5-0 in February.
- Brighton have failed to score in six of their 12 away games in all competitions so far in 2024, as many times as they had in 49 games on the road in 2022 and 2023 combined.
Bournemouth Fixtures: Tough Season End For Cherries
- Vs Brighton (H)
- Vs Arsenal (A)
- Vs Brentford (H)
- Vs Chelsea (A)
Brighton Fixtures: Even Tougher Season End For Seagulls
- Vs Bournemouth (A)
- Vs Aston Villa (H)
- Vs Newcastle (A)
- Vs Chelsea (H)
- Vs Manchester United (H)
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